JANUARY 23, 2003 DISCUSSION:
1) Recent rains in northern Tunisia and extreme areas in northern Algeria has resulted in saturated conditions and some local flooding. Expect more rain throughout the period which could induce local flooding in some prone areas.
2) Hydrological dryness continues across much of southern Mauritania resulting in poor pasture conditions. Significant rains are not expected until the next growing season, which generally begins in July.
3) Dryness throughout recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across central Ethiopia, and adjacent portions of Eritrea and Djibouti. Rainfall is not forecast over the region within the next week.
4) Below normal rainfall totals in Guinea has resulted in low reservoir levels, which aid in the generation of hydro-electric power. Improvement is expected around April or the start of the next rainy season in the region.
5) Southern Africa has remained dry over the past week, and little rain is forecast in the coming period. Several reports say that much of the region is 100-200 mm below normal, with some local areas over 200 mm below normal. The area highlighted should continue to be monitored
closely for the potential for crop failure due to extremely dry conditions. The region of greatest concern is southern Mozambique and most of Zimbabwe.
6) Saturated conditions, which continue in southern Malawi, north and central Mozambique, and the northern two-thirds of Madagascar could lead to isolated areas of flooding as rains continue over the next week. Flood prone areas should be monitored closely as convective showers could bring local amounts of 100-200 mm of rain over the hazard period.
Author: Kevin B Laws