Normal to above-normal rainfall is predicted for January to March 2018. While conducive to agricultural production, the rains will inevitably lead to flooding, and tropical cyclones will likely affect Indian Ocean countries.
An estimated 40 million people are facing food insecurity, including some 23 million needing urgent assistance. The Regional Action Plan, with a requirement of $1.2 billion, is only 17 per cent funded to date.
If the abnormally hot and dry conditions persist, a regional food security crisis, including a substantial increase in numbers of acutely food-insecure, is likely in the latter half of 2016 and early 2017.