Tropical Cyclone Ava - Jan 2018
Madagascar is on alert following the identification of a low weather pressure system off the north-east coast of the country, which is expected to strengthen in the southwestern Indian Ocean basin. The weather system is already causing weather disturbances in northern Madagascar and on the islands of Réunion and Mauritius. It is expected to gain strength during the week as it tracks westward, prior to making landfall on Madagascar on 4 or 5 January 2018 (OCHA, 3 Jan 2018)
Tropical Cyclone AVA reached Madagascar’s northeast coast in the afternoon of 5 January. Heavy rains associated with AVA have been recorded in the north, north-east and east of the country since 3 January. Rising water levels have been observed in the Alaotra Mangoro and Analanjirofo regions, while flooding, interruptions to communications networks and power cuts have been reported in Fokontany Ambinany (Soanierana Ivongo). Preventive evacuations began in Brickaville on 4 January. The Malagasy authorities have issued a red alert (imminent threat) for the regions of Analanjirofo, Atsinanana and Alaotra Mangoro for 4 to 5 January, and Vatovavy Fitovinany for 5 to 6 January. In addition, several districts remain on yellow and green alert.(OCHA, 5 Jan 2018)
Tropical cyclone AVA continued moving south along the eastern coast of the country as Tropical Storm. On 8 January at 0.00 UTC its centre was located off the eastern coast of Madagascar, 200 km north-east of Taolagnaro city (Madagascar) and 800 km south-west of La Reunion island, and it had maximum sustained winds speed of 74 km/h (Tropical Storm). Over the next 24 hours, it is forecast to keep moving, heading south away from Madagascar and weakening. Heavy rain, strong winds and a storm surge could still affect southern and eastern regions of Madagascar. (ECHO, 8 Jan 2018)
According to the Malagasy authorities, as of 9 January, about 123,000 people had been directly or indirectly impacted by Tropical Cyclone Ava, with 24,800 people evacuated, 33 dead and 22 missing.
The cyclone damaged 19 health centres and affected 141 schools, including 77 classrooms used as shelter for displaced people. About 34,640 children are out of school.
Road access to some south-eastern and southwestern parts of the country has been cut off. River levels have started to moderately decrease in Antananarivo and in the south-eastern coast.
However, evacuated people are still staying in several temporary sites. Remaining displaced people are mainly in Antananarivo and in the south-eastern coast; while almost all displaced people in Brickaville and Toamasina have already returned to their homes. It is common that the number of displaced people reduces in the days following a cyclone, as people return home if there are no floods or landslide threat. (OCHA, 8 Jan 2018)
Maps & Infographics
Ce rapport est publié par le Bureau National de Gestion des Risques des Catastrophes (BNGRC) et l'Equipe Humanitaire de Madagascar. Il couvre la période allant du 06 au 15 Janvier 2018.
Le cyclone Tropical Ava a atterri le 05 janvier à 12h40 à Toamasina ville. C’est la première fois qu’un premier cyclone de la saison cyclonique touche directement le pays et tous les secteurs humanitaires ont dû mobiliser plus précocement leurs stocks d’urgence disponibles (carte en annexe).
In the afternoon of Friday the 5 January 2018, the region of Atsinanana in Madagascar, was affected by the tropical cyclone Ava with a maximum wind speed of 150 kph alternated by gusts of 205 km/h in a radius of 37 km around its center. The tropical storm hit the Island country off South-eastern on Friday and Saturday killing at least 29 people nationwide and forcing more than 17,000 from their homes. According to the Statement from the National Bureau for Risk and Catastrophe Management or BNGRC, 22 people are still missing. Overall, Ava affected more than 83,000 people.
More than 54,000 people were displaced by the cyclone which struck with with wind speeds of up to 190 kph
ANTANANARIVO, Jan 15 (Reuters) - The death toll from a cyclone that hit Madagascar about 10 days ago has risen to 51, with another 22 people reported missing, authorities said on Sunday.
Read more on Reuters.
BERGUITTA s’est intensifiée et est actuellement au stade de Forte Tempête Tropicale. A 10 heures locales, son centre est localisé à 1445 km au large de Toamasina. Il est probable qu’elle montera au stade de Cyclone mature dans les prochaines heures. La force du vent est estimée à 110 km/h avec des rafales de 155 km/h à proximité de son centre. Il poursuit désormais son Cap vers le Nord-Ouest et ceci pour les 2 prochains jours à un rythme réduit de 06 à 10 km/h. D’après les éléments de prévision de ce matin, BERGUITTA ne touchera terre sur Madagascar.
Au cours de la semaine passée (08 au 14 Janvier), des cumuls de précipitations abondants (150 à 300 mm) ont été observés dans les districts de Nosy Be, Ambilobe, Ambanja, Analalava, Sainte Marie, Mahajanga I et II, et des cumuls de précipitations très abondants (300 à 400 mm) ont été observés dans le district d'Antsohihy.
Ce matin, une autre Perturbation Tropicale s’est formée dans le Nord du Canal de Mozambique. A 10 heures locales, son centre est positionné à 362 Km au Nord-Ouest de Besalampy. Il est probable qu’elle s’intensifie en Tempête Tropicale avant son atterrissage sur le Mozambique.
Sa présence n’engendrera pas de modification notable sur les conditions météorologiques dans le Nord du pays.
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Cyclone Ava brings heavy rains to eastern regions in early 2018
Rice production in 2017 estimated at well belowaverage level mainly reflecting dry conditions in main-producing areas
Prices of rice in 2017 up on annual basis, mostly on account of tighter supplies
Moderate improvement in food security situation in southern regions, but conditions worsened in southeastern areas due to weather shocks
Heavy rains impact coastal regions in early 2018
La tempête tropicale modérée BERGUITTA (nommée hier dans l’après-midi) est localisée à 1450 km à l’Est de Toamasina à 9 heures locales. La force du vent qui l’accompagne est estimée à 83 km/h avec des rafales de 117 km/h à proximité de son centre. D’après la prévision, BERGUITTA deviendra un système mature et dangereux pour les Iles soeurs en début de cette semaine. Il poursuit désormais son Cap vers le Nord-Ouest et ceci pour les 2 prochains jours à un rythme réduit de 06 à 10 km/h.
Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Ava causes flooding in Madagascar
Africa Weather Hazards
Since November, rainfall has been belowaverage in South Africa.
The early season abnormal dryness has expanded into several parts of southern and western Mozambique, Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and southern Zambia, where rainfall is forecast to be low during the middle of January.
This map illustrates satellite-detected water extent as of 07 January 2018 over Toamasina districts, Atsinanana Region, in Madagascar as detected by Sentinel-1. Some standing water areas could be observed north and south of Toamasina, mainly in the agricultural and/or open areas along the river. It is likely that floodwaters have been systematically underestimated along highly vegetated areas along main river banks and within built-up urban areas because of the special characteristics of the satellite data used. This is a preliminary analysis and has not yet been validated in the field.
• Tropical Cyclone Ava impacted thousands of people and caused numerous damages in infrastructure.
• 33 deaths and 22 missing people have been reported.
• Road access to some south-eastern and south-western parts of the country has been cut off.
• Humanitarian response is ongoing, including provision of food, water, sanitation and health services.
• An aerial assessment is assessing the extent of the floods and the possible impacts on agriculture.
This map illustrates satellite-detected water extent as of 07 January 2018 over Mananjary district, Vatovavy-Fitovinany region, in Madagascar as detected by Sentinel-1. ~ 1000 ha of land over the communes of Tsiatosika and ~1300 ha in Ankatafana seem to be inundated. These zones are mainly agricultural and/or swamps. These waters are the results of recent heavy rains following the cyclone AVA-18 which made landfall the 05 January 2018.
This map illustrates satellite-detected water extent as of 07 January 2018 over Vohipeno & Manakara Atsimo districs, Vatovavy Fitovinary Region, in Madagascar as detected by Sentinel-1. As of 07 January 2018. Several communes of these districts seem to be affected by inundations due to to the heavy rains that have followed the cyclone AVA-18. ~1,000 ha of lands appear to be likely affected in Vohitrindry, ~ 800 ha in Lanovo and ~400 ha in Vohilany communes.
More than 13,000 people are displaced and schools are shut due to flooding and risk of landslides
ANTANANARIVO, Jan 8 (Reuters) - A cyclone that hit eastern Madagascar over the weekend killed at least 29 people and injured three others while two people were reported missing, authorities said on Monday.
Tropical Cyclone Ava passed through Madagascar on Friday and Saturday, hitting mostly the eastern coast of the island with wind speeds of between 140-190 kph (87-119 mph).
This map illustrates satellite-detected water extent as of 07 January 2018 over Brickaville distric, Atsinanana region, in Madagascar as detected by Sentinel-1. As of 07 January 2018, ~ 2600 ha of land over Brickaville commune seem to be inundated and 2400 in Andovoranto commune. These zones are mainly agricultural and/or swamps. These waters seem to be the results of the recent heavy rain related also to the cyclone AVA-18 which made landfall the 05 January 2018.
• Tropical Cyclone AVA left Madagascar on 6 January.
• The cyclone caused heavy rainfall and strong winds along the coast and the highland.
• Thousands of people have been affected and displaced.
• Six deaths and two missing people have been reported.
Tropical cyclone AVA continued moving south along the eastern coast of the country as Tropical Storm. On 8 January at 0.00 UTC its centre was located off the eastern coast of Madagascar, 200 km north-east of Taolagnaro city (Madagascar) and 800 km south-west of La Reunion island, and it had maximum sustained winds speed of 74 km/h (Tropical Storm).
Over the next 24 hours, it is forecast to keep moving, heading south away from Madagascar and weakening. Heavy rain, strong winds and a storm surge could still affect southern and eastern regions of Madagascar.
BULLETIN CYCLONIQUE SPECIAL DU 07 JANVIER 2018 A 16 HEURES LOCALES
La Tempête AVA est localisée à 170 Km au Sud-Est de Farafangana. Le vent moyen reste à 65 Km/h avec des rafales de 90 Km/h. Elle va continuer son trajet suivant un Cap Sud à un rythme moyen de 15 Km/h. Le danger semble écarté pour Madagascar. Toutefois, des vigilances doivent toujours être de mise face aux montées des eaux et le risque secondaire de glissement de terre.