Tropical Cyclone Ava - Jan 2018
Madagascar is on alert following the identification of a low weather pressure system off the north-east coast of the country, which is expected to strengthen in the southwestern Indian Ocean basin. The weather system is already causing weather disturbances in northern Madagascar and on the islands of Réunion and Mauritius. It is expected to gain strength during the week as it tracks westward, prior to making landfall on Madagascar on 4 or 5 January 2018 (OCHA, 3 Jan 2018)
Tropical Cyclone AVA reached Madagascar’s northeast coast in the afternoon of 5 January. Heavy rains associated with AVA have been recorded in the north, north-east and east of the country since 3 January. Rising water levels have been observed in the Alaotra Mangoro and Analanjirofo regions, while flooding, interruptions to communications networks and power cuts have been reported in Fokontany Ambinany (Soanierana Ivongo). Preventive evacuations began in Brickaville on 4 January. The Malagasy authorities have issued a red alert (imminent threat) for the regions of Analanjirofo, Atsinanana and Alaotra Mangoro for 4 to 5 January, and Vatovavy Fitovinany for 5 to 6 January. In addition, several districts remain on yellow and green alert.(OCHA, 5 Jan 2018)
Tropical cyclone AVA continued moving south along the eastern coast of the country as Tropical Storm. On 8 January at 0.00 UTC its centre was located off the eastern coast of Madagascar, 200 km north-east of Taolagnaro city (Madagascar) and 800 km south-west of La Reunion island, and it had maximum sustained winds speed of 74 km/h (Tropical Storm). Over the next 24 hours, it is forecast to keep moving, heading south away from Madagascar and weakening. Heavy rain, strong winds and a storm surge could still affect southern and eastern regions of Madagascar. (ECHO, 8 Jan 2018)
According to the Malagasy authorities, as of 9 January, about 123,000 people had been directly or indirectly impacted by Tropical Cyclone Ava, with 24,800 people evacuated, 33 dead and 22 missing.
The cyclone damaged 19 health centres and affected 141 schools, including 77 classrooms used as shelter for displaced people. About 34,640 children are out of school.
Road access to some south-eastern and southwestern parts of the country has been cut off. River levels have started to moderately decrease in Antananarivo and in the south-eastern coast.
However, evacuated people are still staying in several temporary sites. Remaining displaced people are mainly in Antananarivo and in the south-eastern coast; while almost all displaced people in Brickaville and Toamasina have already returned to their homes. It is common that the number of displaced people reduces in the days following a cyclone, as people return home if there are no floods or landslide threat. (OCHA, 8 Jan 2018)
Maps & Infographics
Most read reports
- Southern Africa: Humanitarian Snapshot (as of 26 February 2018)
- South-West Indian Ocean | Tropical Cyclone seasons 2011 – 2018 - Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – DG ECHO Daily Map | 13/12/2018
- Southern Africa Humanitarian Key Messages (as of 08 October 2018)
- Flash Update: Tropical Storm AVA Approaching Madagascar | 3 January 2018
- Flash Update #3: Tropical Cyclone AVA Reaches Madagascar | 5 January 2018
1.26 million people and 5 regions affected by rain shortfalls and failed harvests
The food security and nutritional situation is alarming due to failed harvests and rain shortfalls
Around 400,438 people are in IPC emergency phase and 860,883 people are in crisis phase, in the southern and south-eastern regions
WFP plans on reaching 849,000 people from this population
More than 400,000 people across the region have been affected by floods and cyclones in 2018.
There is a 65-70 per cent probability of an El Niño event between December and February, as compared with a 90 per cent probability ahead of the same period in 2015 - 2016.
People in two districts in Madagascar and three in Zimbabwe are facing Emergency food insecurity.
3,716 mt of food assistance distributed
US$ 33.6 million six months (July-December 2018) net funding requirement
588,379 people assisted in June 2018
• The 2017-18 rainfall season was characterized by a late start, an extended mid-season dry spell (December-January) and heavy rains from February into April. The dry spell caused moisture stress and wilting of the early planted crops in many areas in Botswana, south-western Madagascar, southern Malawi, southern and some central parts of Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Madagascar faces a number of humanitarian challenges, including recurring natural disasters, disease outbreaks, banditry, pest infestations and acute food insecurity. According to the UN, 90 percent of the population lives below the international poverty line and more than 50 percent of children under the age of 5 are chronically malnourished.
From January to June 2018, Madagascar has been hit by tropical Cyclone Ava and tropical Storm Eliakim. UNICEF worked closely with the Government and partners to provide children and women access to nutrition, health, education, water, sanitation and hygiene and child protection services and support.
No additional cases of the plague have been reported since December 2017, which marks the end of the “plague season”. However, UNICEF and partners remain vigilant.
3,890 mt of food assistance distributed
US$ 264,690 cash based transfers made
US$ 4.86 m six months (April-October 2018) net funding requirement
634,014 people assisted in April 2018
• WFP’s response in Southern Madagascar: Guided by the findings of food security assessments, since October 2017, WFP focused its resilience activities on strengthening the resilience of communities in areas where the food security situation had improved through an integrated approach.
64 Cases of plague (2018)
20 Deaths (2018)
35 Districts affected by Fall Armyworm infestation
32 Cyclone and flood-affected districts
212k People affected by floods during the cyclone season 2017- 2018
810k People severely food insecure
Madagascar routinely faces a number of humanitarian challenges, including recurring natural disasters, disease outbreaks, banditry, pest infestations and acute food insecurity. According to the UN, 90 percent of people in Madagascar live below the international poverty line and more than 50 percent of children under the age of 5 are chronically malnourished.
Tiana Mahefasoa Randrianalijaona, Director of the Multidisciplinary Disaster and Risk Management Master’s programme, Université d’Antananarivo
La Forte Tempête Tropicale Eliakim, la 5eme de l’actuelle saison cyclonique, a atterrit le 16 mars à 09h00 locale au niveau du Cap Masoala, restait pendant presque 24 heures dans le district de Maroantsetra avant de sortir en mer le 18 mars au niveau du district de Vatomamdry.
Le nord-ouest, le nord et surtout les nord-est du pays ont été directement affectés, avant le passage d’Eliakim, ces zones ont déjà reçu jusqu'à 400% de précipitations par rapport à la normale saisonnière.
Southwestern Madagascar continues to feel effects of dryness
Cyclone Eliakim passed along the eastern coast of Madagascar in mid-March, damaging clove crops in Analanjirofo region during their flowering stage. Vanilla was less affected. Some severe flooding was reported by OCHA in ricefields in Maroantsetra, and less severe flooding in Mandritsara and Ambilobe.
Episcopal Relief & Development is working with the Anglican Alliance and the the Diocese of Fianarantsoa to provide critical emergency support in Madagascar after the devastation of Tropical Cyclone Ava in early January.
The island was hit by torrential rains, floods and mudslides which destroyed dozens of homes and farms. Over 50 deaths were reported and more than 17,000 people were displaced.
Rainfall deficits in southwestern Madagascar and flooding in southeastern Madagascar disrupt agriculture
• The northern half of Madagascar received above average rainfall during the 2017/2018 rainy season 2017/2018 but the southern half received below average rainfall. A deficit was particularly seen in the southwest, including the Tsiribihini Delta production area that is a major food supplier to southern Madagascar, which received only 55 percent of average rainfall between October 2017 and February 2018.
- 75% shortfall in rain in large parts of the region during January
- 14,732 cholera cases and 218 deaths reported since 2017
- 234,200 people affected by floods and cyclones in 2018
WFP is implementing resilience strengthening activities in 16 targeted communes of the South and South East, where the food security situation has improved.
Nutritional support and school feeding programmes are also implemented in those communes, for higher impact.
Given that the 2017/2018 cyclone season is reported to be highly active, WFP is enhancing its emergency preparedness measures. WFP has provided emergency food assistance to 11,790 households displaced following cyclone AVA.
• Overall humanitarian needs decrease as Southern Africa recovers from 2015/2016 El Niño-related drought conditions
• Tropical Cyclone Ava results in more than 50 deaths in Madagascar
• Recent analyses project mixed food security outcomes across Southern Africa through mid-2018