Ethiopia: Floods - Oct 2015
Since the beginning of bega season, incidents of flooding were reported in East Imey, Mustahil and Kelafo woredas of Shebelle zone in Somali region due to the overflow of the Wabe Shebelle River (East Imey) and flash flood. Evacuation of at-risk population to safer/higher grounds was undertaken in Mustahil and Kelafo woredas. Govt. Ethiopia, 20 Nov 2015
A Flood Contingency Plan was released on 18 November to guide mitigation and response efforts in flood-risk areas, especially along the Wabishabelle, Genale/Dawa, and Omo River basins. At least 210,600 people are expected to be affected by flooding and at least 105,300 people risk displacement. (OCHA, 23 Nov 2015)
Floods in the Somali Region, Mustahil, Kelafo and East Imey woredas of Shaballe Zone have killed five people, displaced more than 46,500 people, affected some 102,000 others and killed some 10,000 livestock. In these areas, schools have been forced to close, health clinics are affected, water pumps and wells are destroyed. Farm land is flooded and crops destroyed. (UNICEF, 31 Oct 2015)
Southern and southeastern pastoral areas (southern Somali, Southern Oromia and the lowlands in South Omo Zone in SNNPR): Although there was some flooding in October in localized areas, affecting planted crops and access for livestock feed in November and early December, floods receded later in December, increasing availability of pasture and browse. This will in turn increase household milk access and income from livestock product sales. Poor households in these areas are expected to move from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) beginning in January 2016. (FEWS NET, 31 Dec 2015)
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Globally, millions of vulnerable households are at risk of increased hunger and poverty due to droughts and floods as a result of a climatic occurrence: El Niño. This phenomenon is not an individual weather event but a climate pattern which occurs every two to seven years and lasts 9-12 months. No two El Niño events are ever the same and it is thought that this particular occurrence could be the most powerful on record. The strongest El Niño in 1997/1998 killed some 21,000 people and caused damage to infrastructure worth US$ 36 billion.
PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR MAY 2016
Conflict and adverse climatic conditions continue to drive humanitarian needs in the region
Acute sectoral needs continue to be reported in Ethiopia
Flood preparedness in full swing as El Niño expected to cause serious flooding in the region
Civilian death tolls and human rights violations on the rise in Burundi
Urgent access needed to prevent food crisis in Unity State, South Sudan
Regional humanitarian outlook
Elevated risks of flooding in Kenya, South Sudan, and Somalia
Africa Weather Hazards
Persistent belowaverage rainfall since August over several areas of Ghana, Togo, and Benin has led to strong moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. However, Increased rainfall since October has significantly improved ground conditions.
Several consecutive weeks of above-average rainfall has increased the risk for flooding in the White Nile, Jonglei, and Eastern Equatorial provinces of South Sudan.
Below-average early-season rainfall expected to continue in southern Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
Persistently belowaverage rainfall since August over several bimodal areas of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to strong moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. Increased rainfall since October has resulted in improved ground conditions in the region.
Global Situation Assessment of El Niño-related Health Risks
WMO has confirmed reports that a mature and strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. International climate models suggest that the 201 5/2016 El Niño will strengthen further before the end of 2015 and become one of the strong est El Niño events in the past twenty years.
Flooding likely between October and December in eastern Horn of Africa
The evolving El Niño, which currently has a probability of occurrence at above 90% and is likely to be the worst in 30 years, will exacerbate the current food and nutrition security situation. Parts of Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia and Kenya are expected to experience severe flooding while other parts of the region will experience drought conditions.