Parts of northern Somalia and areas along the Juba and Shabelle River basins in Somalia have experienced heavy rains following the start of the Deyr rains on 7 October. Cumulatively, more than 90,000 people have been affected since 23 October. Hereof, an estimated 42,000 people have been displaced as a result of the flash floods and river flooding in Bakool, Bay, Lower and Middle Juba, and Middle Shabelle regions. Some people have returned to their villages in areas where water levels have receded, Humanitarian partners are distributing food, health and water and sanitation supplies in areas most severely affected. (OCHA, 11 Nov 2015)
During the week that ended on 7th December 2015, there was a further reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few areas in Lower Shabelle region recorded moderate rains which led to river floods and flash floods towards the end of the week. Map ‐ 1 shows the total satellite Rainfall Estimates (RFE) for the same reporting period while Map –2 shows the rainfall forecast for coming week
Satellite rainfall estimates also indicates reduction of rainfall amounts during the same period within the Juba and Shabelle basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a possibility of moderate rains in Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions.
The risk of flooding in the lower reaches of Shabelle changes to minimal given the rainfall forecast for coming week and the decline of river levels in the last one week. The flood risk level for Juba changes to minimal during the coming week. (SWALIM, 8 Dec 2015)