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05 Dec 2012 description

1) Moisture deficits remain following a mid-season dry spell that occurred in early November and recent drier than average conditions. With a shortened recovery period in the next several weeks, this could result in a deterioration of pastoral and agro-pastoral conditions, and possible crop yield reductions by the end of season throughout parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and eastern Tanzania.

24 Jan 2007 description


Weekly Introduction:

Indian and Atlantic Oceans Remains Warm The Indian Ocean Dipole, partially responsible for the above normal precipitation in the Horn of Africa during the past few months, has broken down. Despite this, the weakening El Nino signature in the Pacific has allowed the wet conditions around Lake Victoria to remain in place.

Additionally the warm temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean have remained in place. Thus the possibility of additional tropical cyclones developing remains.

13 Jul 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Update of El Niño:

23 Jun 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Update of Seasonal Outlooks at One-Month Lead:

July-September 2005 Forecasts

Gulf of Guinea Region

Climatology is expected across the entire domain.

Sahel

There is a low to moderate tilt in the odds favoring above normal rainfall over northern and central Mali, and locally over north central Niger. There is a slight tilt in the odds favoring below normal rainfall locally over western Mali.

Northern Horn of Africa

22 Jun 2005 description

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) issues periodic emergency alerts when a significant food security crisis is occurring, where portions of the population are now, or will soon become, extremely food insecure and face imminent famine. Decision makers should give the highest priority to responding to the situations highlighted by this Emergency alert.

08 Jun 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Review of Tropical Cyclone Situation:

02 Jun 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Update of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Position:

26 May 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Update of Seasonal Outlooks at Four Month Lead: Sept - Nov 2005 Forecasts:

Northern Horn of Africa:

Climatology is expected, except locally over portions of northwestern Ethiopia, where there is a slight tilt in the odds favoring above average rainfall.



East Africa:

18 May 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:


Update of Seasonal Outlooks at One-Month Lead: Jun-Aug 2005 Forecasts


Gulf of Guinea Region

Climatology is expected, except locally over southeastern Ghana and the southern areas of Togo and Benin, where there is a slight tilt in the odds favoring above average rainfall.

Northern Horn of Africa

12 May 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Update of El Niño:

04 May 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:



Update of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Position:

We have re-initiated posting the position of the ITCZ along with a comparison with its normal position (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/ITCZ/itcz.html).

28 Apr 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:
Situation in Ethiopia

Given reports of continuing food stress, the outcome of the current rainy season is especially important this year. The early dry spell this year may postpone harvests and extend the current hunger season. However, rains appear to be returning to the area and we will continue to monitor the situation with respect to pasture viability and crop availability.

Update of Seasonal Outlooks at Four-Months Lead: Aug-Oct 2005 Forecasts

Gulf of Guinea Region