Somalia: Flash Floods - Apr 2018Ongoing
Unlike in 2017 when the rains were poor, the above average Gu rains in April this year are already worsening conditions in overcrowded Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) settlements and displacing more people along riverine areas due to flooding...In Baidoa, half of the estimated more than 246,000 IDPs, are at the risk of flash flooding...In Galgadud region, heavy rains resulted in flash floods that destroyed IDPs shelters in settlements in low lying land in Abudwaq town...An estimated 9,300 displaced people in Danwadaag, Kulmiye and Wadajir settlements have been affected and an unknown number has moved to Cadaado town until flooding recedes...In Jubaland, an estimated 28,200 people have been displaced by flash flooding. This includes 8,000 in Saakow; 6,000 in Bu’ale; 6,000 in Luuq; 6,000 in Afmadow; 1,200 in Ceel Waaq villages and some 7,000 people in Jilib and Jamaame riverine areas who have been temporarily displaced to nearby highland areas. In Middle Shabelle, the Shabelle River burst its banks displacing people in Horseed area. Farms and IDP shelter were washed away. Some 7,000 affected people have moved to Hantiwadaag village in Jowhar. According to partners, an estimated 13,000 have been affected by flooding...In Hiraan region, thousands of people have been affected after the Shabelle River burst its banks and its inlets overflowed into parts of Belet Weyne town and several riverine villages inundating houses and crops. (OCHA, 22 Apr 2018)
Overall, more than 427,000 people have been affected as of 26 April and of these nearly 175,000 have been displaced as a result of the flash and river flooding in Hirshabelle, South West and Jubaland states as well as Banadir region, according to data collected by humanitarian partners. (OCHA, 26 Apr 2018)
Flash and river flooding has so far affected an estimated 630,000 people. More than 214,800 of these have been displaced from their homes following the heavy rains received across the country in April, according to the UNHCR-led Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN). (OCHA, 2 May 2018)
An estimated 772,500 people have been affected by the flooding and more than 229,000 are displaced, according to [PRMN]. According to the FEWS NET and FSNAU, the food security outcomes are likely to be more severe than previously projected for many families in areas affected by flooding, especially in riverine areas of Hirshabelle, Jubaland and some agropastoral areas of South West State. In these areas, several roads are now impassible and trade flows are expected to slow, driving food prices higher.Cases of AWD/Cholera are expected to rise as flood waters stagnate and remaining clean drinking water sources are compromised. (OCHA, 15 May 2018)
The past week has seen a reduction in rainfall activity across Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands, according to FAO-managed Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM). However, river levels remain high with flooding continuing along the Shabelle, while water levels are reducing down the Juba River, according to SWALIM. In Belet Weyne town and surrounding areas in Hirshabelle state, flood waters are receding while in Bulo Burto and Jalalasqi flooding levels have increased... The floods and storm have resulted in deaths and affected livelihoods, livestock, shelter and key infrastructure across the country. There is a high risk of the outbreak of water-born communicable diseases including malaria and AWD/cholera in several areas. An estimated 794,761 people have been affected by the flooding in southern and central states and more than 231,335 are temporarily displaced, according to the UNHCR-led Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN). So far, 21 people are confirmed dead including nine in Hirshabelle State, four in Jubaland State and eight in Banadir region. (OCHA, 25 May 2018)
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Sakow District flooding current situation in Middle Juba region Sakow District, river was flooded all area river bank area and was effected villages and local farmer in that area and destroy lot of different crops like cash crop and normal crop was using for local farmed .
The Gu rains started the first week of March across the country, with consistent, heavy rains continuing in flood prone areas of southern and central regions throughout April.
During the week ending on 17 April 2018, the Juba and Shabelle basins in Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands continued to receive moderate to heavy rains. Following the heavy rains, flash floods were reported in many places within the two basins leading to displacements, inundation of croplands and destruction of property. The table below shows the total rainfall amounts recorded in selected stations within the two basins over the last one week.
Moderate to heavy rains have been received in many parts of the country over the last two days. Flash floods have been reported in many places including Bakool, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions.
The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains. Low lying areas and built up areas may experience flash floods during the week.
The accumulated three day rainfall forecast points towards moderate rains in the north western and southern regions of the country.
The seven days rainfall forecast shows a possibility of increased rainfall amounts in many parts of the country especially in the southern and central parts of the country. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands during the week.
Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels are expected to continue rising in the coming week with no risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia.
The Gu rains continued to spread in many parts of the country over last week. A few places are however yet to receive the much awaited rains though not late at this time of the year.
The rains are expected to spread further in terms of space and quantity in the coming week as seen in the three days and seven days forecast maps (Map 1 and Map 2). The Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contributes significantly to the river flow of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, are expected to receive moderate to heavy in the same period.
The last few days saw increased rainfall activities in some parts of northern and southern regions of Somalia. The three days rainfall forecast points towards moderate rainfall in parts of Togdheer, W. Galbeed, Middle Juba and Gedo regions with light showers in a few pockets across the country. The seven days rainfall forecast indicates increased rains both in the Ethiopian highland and across Somalia as the week progresses.
Increased likelihood of average Gu rainfall in southern and central Somalia
As part of flood preparedness and contingency planning, the FAO Somalia Water and Land Information Management project (SWALIM) has finalized mapping of river breakages along the Juba River using Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite images. The middle and lower parts of the river are most vulnerable to flooding. Three types of breakages have been identified namely; open (37), potential (191) and closed with sand bags (21). The open breakages are those that were still open during the period of investigation.