Somalia: Flash Floods - Apr 2018Ongoing
Unlike in 2017 when the rains were poor, the above average Gu rains in April this year are already worsening conditions in overcrowded Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) settlements and displacing more people along riverine areas due to flooding...In Baidoa, half of the estimated more than 246,000 IDPs, are at the risk of flash flooding...In Galgadud region, heavy rains resulted in flash floods that destroyed IDPs shelters in settlements in low lying land in Abudwaq town...An estimated 9,300 displaced people in Danwadaag, Kulmiye and Wadajir settlements have been affected and an unknown number has moved to Cadaado town until flooding recedes...In Jubaland, an estimated 28,200 people have been displaced by flash flooding. This includes 8,000 in Saakow; 6,000 in Bu’ale; 6,000 in Luuq; 6,000 in Afmadow; 1,200 in Ceel Waaq villages and some 7,000 people in Jilib and Jamaame riverine areas who have been temporarily displaced to nearby highland areas. In Middle Shabelle, the Shabelle River burst its banks displacing people in Horseed area. Farms and IDP shelter were washed away. Some 7,000 affected people have moved to Hantiwadaag village in Jowhar. According to partners, an estimated 13,000 have been affected by flooding...In Hiraan region, thousands of people have been affected after the Shabelle River burst its banks and its inlets overflowed into parts of Belet Weyne town and several riverine villages inundating houses and crops. (OCHA, 22 Apr 2018)
Overall, more than 427,000 people have been affected as of 26 April and of these nearly 175,000 have been displaced as a result of the flash and river flooding in Hirshabelle, South West and Jubaland states as well as Banadir region, according to data collected by humanitarian partners. (OCHA, 26 Apr 2018)
Flash and river flooding has so far affected an estimated 630,000 people. More than 214,800 of these have been displaced from their homes following the heavy rains received across the country in April, according to the UNHCR-led Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN). (OCHA, 2 May 2018)
An estimated 772,500 people have been affected by the flooding and more than 229,000 are displaced, according to [PRMN]. According to the FEWS NET and FSNAU, the food security outcomes are likely to be more severe than previously projected for many families in areas affected by flooding, especially in riverine areas of Hirshabelle, Jubaland and some agropastoral areas of South West State. In these areas, several roads are now impassible and trade flows are expected to slow, driving food prices higher.Cases of AWD/Cholera are expected to rise as flood waters stagnate and remaining clean drinking water sources are compromised. (OCHA, 15 May 2018)
The past week has seen a reduction in rainfall activity across Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands, according to FAO-managed Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM). However, river levels remain high with flooding continuing along the Shabelle, while water levels are reducing down the Juba River, according to SWALIM. In Belet Weyne town and surrounding areas in Hirshabelle state, flood waters are receding while in Bulo Burto and Jalalasqi flooding levels have increased... The floods and storm have resulted in deaths and affected livelihoods, livestock, shelter and key infrastructure across the country. There is a high risk of the outbreak of water-born communicable diseases including malaria and AWD/cholera in several areas. An estimated 794,761 people have been affected by the flooding in southern and central states and more than 231,335 are temporarily displaced, according to the UNHCR-led Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN). So far, 21 people are confirmed dead including nine in Hirshabelle State, four in Jubaland State and eight in Banadir region. (OCHA, 25 May 2018)
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The cyclonic storm “SAGAR” over Gulf of Aden moved further west-southwestwards with a speed of 8 kmph during past 6 hours, and lay centered at 2030 hrs IST of 18 th May 2018 over Gulf of Aden near latitude 11.4 0N and longitude 45.3 0E; about 170 km south-southeast of Aden (Yemen) and 970 km west-southwest of Socotra Islands. It is very likely to continue to move west-southwestwards and weaken gradually from 19th morning and cross Somalia coast near longitude 440E during afternoon of 19th May 2018 as a cyclonic storm with wind speed 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph.
Following a Tropical Cylcone in the gulf of Aden, heavy rains that led to flash floods were experienced in Bari region of Puntland in the last 12 hours. The rains are expected intensify during the next two days in most parts of Puntland and Somaliland with a reduction on 21/05/2018. Flash floods and strong winds will be experienced during this time in these areas.
A rare tropical cyclone formed in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and northern Somalia late on Wednesday, 16 May 2018. The cyclone, Sagar (TC01A), threatens to bring rains and dangerous flash flooding to desert areas of southern Yemen, northern Somalia and Djibouti.
On Thursday, the centre of the cyclone was about 400 km east of Aden, Yemen. Showers and thunderstorms were reported in the coast of southern Yemen west and east of Aden and on the coast of northern Somalia near Berbera.
Flooding: 718,000 people have been affected by flooding, and 228,000 have been forced to flee their homes due to the rising water. The onset of the Gu ‘long rains’ in Somalia caused flash and river flooding in several areas in Banadir, Hirshabelle, Jubbaland, Galmuduug, and South West State, resulting in damage to crops, livelihoods and property.
Ethiopia: Conflict between ethnic Oromos from West Gujji and Gedeos from SNNP region resulted in large scale displacement from both sides, leaving people in dire need of food and non-food assistance. Currently, the government and partners are assessing the needs and will continue to provide coordinated support. Meanwhile, the regional governments of Oromia and SNNP are working jointly to return displaced people to their place of origin and restore peace and security in the area.
Despite a decrease in rainfall, flooding continues in East Africa.
Due to poor rainfall since November western Namibia is in a severe drought. Conditions may worsen as limited rain is forecast next week.
In southwestern Madagascar, an uneven and inadequate rainfall distribution since the start of the rainfall season has resulted in severe drought. Drought conditions are likely to persist.
Satellite detected water & building damage assessment over Belet Weyne Town, Somalia
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN
THE CYCLONIC STORM “SAGAR” OVER GULF OF ADEN MOVED FURTHER WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 5 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 17TH MAY 2018 OVER GULF OF ADEN NEAR LATITUDE 13.0ºN AND LONGITUDE 48.1º E; ABOUT 330 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ADEN (41480) AND 620 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS (41494). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER SLIGHTLY DURING NEXT 12 HRS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
A depression formed over Gulf of Aden in the evening of yesterday, the 16th May 2018. Moving west-northwestwards it intensified into a deep depression in the early morning and further into a cyclonic storm “Sagar” at 0830 hours IST of today the 17th May 2018 over Gulf of Aden near latitude 13.20N and longitude 48.70E; about 400 km east-northeast of Aden (Yemen) and 560 km west-northwest of Socotra Islands. It is very likely to intensify slightly further during next 12 hrs.
Preliminary findings as of 17 May 2018
• The analysis confirms that, in May 2018, Doolow experienced floods,
• Standing waters increased between 7 & 11 May 2018,
• The analysis of radar image from 13th May suggests that surface waters retracted,
• This is a preliminary analysis and has not yet been validated in the field.
Heavy Gu rainfall leads to further flooding in large parts of the South
The Gu rains 2018 started in April 2018 with above average rains. First, they started slowly but soon reached precipitation above normal. The soils were dried out and hard and could not absorb the rain water all over Somalia.
This caused flash floods all over the country except in North-Eastern Puntland where it did not rain.
With the beginning of the Gu-rains and severe flooding at the end of April the priorities changed suddenly when flash floods appeared, and the rivers busted their beds with the consequence that 200,000 persons had to leave their homes in Hiraan.
- Since March, heavy rainfall has led to flash floods and riverine flooding across large areas of the Horn of Africa.
• Most of the flood affected areas are the ones already affected by the 2017 drought. The compacted soil reduced their capacity to absorb rain, further increasing the flooding.
Issued on Wednesday, 16th May 2018 at 0130 local time.
A Tropical Cyclone is expected to develop at the eastern end of the Gulf of Aden in the next 24 hours (See Figure 1). This is forecast to track westwards along the Gulf and bring exceptionally high rainfall totals to a usually very arid region.
SRSG Michael Keating briefs the Security Council
At the outset, let me to express my best wishes to members of the Council and to Somalis around the world at the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan, a time of peace, forgiveness and compassion.
Events in the last 48 hours in Somalia highlight the complexity of the situation facing her people.