Timor-Leste: Drought - 2023-2024

Amid escalating levels of food insecurity, Timor-Leste is already showing clear signs of drought in twelve out of fourteen municipalities based on the Combined Drought Index, produced by the Government of Timor-Leste and FAO. In addition, the country is facing the looming possibility of an extended El Niño-induced dry season and predictions of sustained low rainfall into early 2024, all of which will severely impact agriculture. (WFP, 31 Oct 2023)

The United Nations in Timor-Leste announced the launch of emergency grant funding amounting to US$2 million. This funding aims to provide emergency food, water, nutrition, and agricultural assistance to people affected by El Niño in six municipalities across the country. [...] As a small island nation, Timor-Leste relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture and imported food. Since September 2023, an ongoing El Niño weather event has led to drought-like conditions, delayed rainfall, and flash floods during the country’s main planting season. (FAO, UNICEF, UN RC Timor-Leste & WFP, 2 Feb 2024)

Timor-Leste is forecast to experience below-average precipitation over the next three months, extending a prolonged period of dry conditions in the country despite the wet season, which is ongoing and expected to end by April. [...] The outcomes of rice and maize production require close monitoring to address any potential food security concerns. (OCHA, 5 Mar 2024)

Timor-Leste is forecast to experience below-average precipitation over the next three months, extending a prolonged period of dry conditions in the country despite the wet season, which is ongoing and expected to end by April. Here too the outcomes of rice and maize production require close monitoring to address any potential food security concerns. Timor-Leste’s second round of Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) Acute Food Insecurity analysis published last month revealed the fragility and deteriorating levels of food insecurity in twelve out of fourteen municipalities in Timor-Leste, amid successive climate shocks and soaring food prices. An estimated 360,000 people, around one in four of the population, are grappling with crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above); of which 18,500 people are facing emergency conditions (IPC Phase 4). The situation is predicted to worsen from May to September 2024 during the post-harvest season, traditionally seen as a period of improved food access. Predicted climate shocks will reduce crop yields, with a projected 19,000 people across six municipalities facing a further decline in their food security and pushing up the total number of people in emergency (IPC4) food conditions to more than 22,000. (OCHA, 13 Mar 2024)