Somalia: Drought - 2015-2017Ongoing
The 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon had a severe impact on vulnerable people in Somalia - it worsened an already widespread drought in Puntland and Somaliland with a devastating impact on communities and their livelihoods, increasing food insecurity, cash shortages and resulting in out-migration and death of livestock. Those affects are now emerging in other areas of the country, specifically in Jubaland in the south. Somaliland and Puntland have experienced below average rains for up to four seasons, spanning two years, and affecting nearly 1.4 million people. (OCHA, 28 Nov 2016)
The humanitarian situation in Somalia is rapidly deteriorating and famine is a strong possibility in 2017. This comes only six years after a devastating famine led to the death of more than a quarter of a million people – half of them children. The severe drought is a result of two consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, more in some areas. In the worst affected areas, large-scale crop failure and high levels of livestock deaths are occurring. Malnutrition and drought-related diseases are on the rise, so are displacements, including to Ethiopia. Increasing competition for resources such as water is already increasing local tensions and could trigger further inter-communal conflict. Over 6.2 million people-half the population-are in need of humanitarian assistance. The situation of children of Somalia is particularly grave. (OCHA, 17 Feb 2017)
As of 31 May 2017, there had been an estimated 739,000 drought displacements since November 2016...More than 480,000 of the displaced, or 65 per cent, are under the age of 18. Moreover, people under 5 years old represent more than one-quarter (195,000) of all those displaced — and are the most at risk of malnutrition and disease. (UNHCR, 31 May 2017)
3.2 million people are severely food insecure. This situation is expected to persist throughout 2017 given the high likelihood of a third consecutive poor harvest in July. Access to food is relatively better than previously projected due to large-scale humanitarian assistance...102,263 people have been treated for Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) since January. SAM admissions have increased by more than 50% since 2016. The Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU)’s post-Jilaal 2017 survey indicates a high prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (15% to 30%) in the Bay, Bakool, Sool, Sanaag, Bari and Nugal regions, as well as in Baidoa and Mogadishu IDP camps. (OCHA, 16 Jun 2017)
While the latest FSNAU assessments show a decrease of the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance from 6.7 million to 6.2 million people, the threat of localized famine countered by scaled-up humanitarian response is as relevant today as it was in the first months of this crisis. The Gu harvest will provide temporary relief for some communities in terms of food availability, but the harvest is reduced due to poor rains and access to food remains constrained. Prices will remain elevated through at least early 2018. Malnutrition, one of the leading indicators of the crisis, has reached emergency levels in a number of locations in southern and central Somalia, primarily, though not exclusively among displaced populations. Overall, some 388,000 acutely malnourished children are in need of critical nutrition support, including life-saving treatment for more than 87,000 severely malnourished children. Nearly 895,000 internally displaced people due to drought and conflict rely almost exclusively on assistance for basic services and life support. Major AWD/Cholera and measles outbreaks are also of continued concern. Through robust humanitarian assistance and the modest benefits from the underperforming Gu rains, the situation has stabilized but remains of serious concern at emergency levels. Whereas there is a modest decline in the number of people in need, there is an increase in the number of persons in the emergency-phase (IPC 4) compared to the previous assessment. When the threat of famine was announced in February, the number of people in need stood at 6.2 million. (OCHA, 31 Aug 2017)
Appeals & Funding
- FAO Somalia Famine Prevention and Drought Response Plan January – December 2017, Update June 2017
- IOM East and Horn of Africa Drought Appeal April - December 2017
- Somalia Situation 2017 Supplementary Appeal January - December 2017
- Operational Plan for famine prevention (Jan-Jun 2017)
In the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions of south-central Somalia, the Shabelle River has two faces. It provides the life-giving water for hectares of agricultural farmland; during the rainy season, however, it can quickly turn destructive, damaging crops and forcing people from their homes. This past season, the cycle of harmful flooding was broken by a USAID-funded program that contributed to the repair of 72 points along the banks of the Shabelle River and saved Somali farmers an estimated $6.7 million in maize yields alone.
The El Niño 2015-16 in the Context of Past El Niños
The 2015/16 El Niño Event
An El Niño event was officially declared in March 2015, gaining in intensity until it reached its peak in December 2015. The event came to an end in May 2016, becoming one the strongest on record, together with the El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
During Q2-2016, FAO’s global cereal price index fell by 6 percent year-on-year but it is 3 percent up compared to Q1-2016. The increase is because of rising maize and rice prices. The FAO global food price index has increased and almost returned to the levels of June 2015 (-1%), because prices particularly for sugar and oil increased significantly.
The real price2 of wheat is 20 percent below Q2-2015.
This is because world supplies are at record levels thanks to increased production as well as beginning stocks.
As of 31 July 2016, UN-coordinated Humanitarian Response Plans (HRP), Flash Appeals and Regional Refugee Plans as covered by the Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO) require US$21.9 billion to meet the needs of 96.9 million people affected by humanitarian crises in 40 countries. The appeals are funded at $7.2 billion, with unmet requirements totalling $14.7 billion. Overall, donors have contributed $13.7 billion towards humanitarian operations in 2016 and pledged a further $814.4 million.
Dry seasons and water shortages have been a constant problem in the Puntland region of Somalia. Scarcity of water and the lack of rain restricts pastoralists who struggle to provide bare necessity to their livestock, which is their source of livelihood. Paying to use With UNDP’s Environment and Energy Project support, the Ministry of Environment and the Karkar region constructed a sand dam in Biygadud in Bander Bayla to help curb the effects of seasonal droughts and climate change for the Dhudo community.
Drought conditions, disease outbreaks, displacement and returnees continued to drive needs across Somalia. The food security situation in southern and central regions is worryingly worsening. This is happening against the backdrop of an already fragile humanitarian situation.
Some 4.7 million people continue to require life-saving and livelihood support.
FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION SITUATION
By: Jubba Land Refugee and Internally Displaced person’s agency (JRIA)
- From January to June 2016, UNICEF provided humanitarian assistance to drought-affected populations in Somaliland and Puntland, as well as to communities affected by floods and the Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD)/cholera outbreak in central and southern regions.
Staple Food Markets in East Africa: White maize is the main staple grain consumed in Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia. In Uganda, white maize is grown mainly as a commercial crop for export in the region. Imported rice is a major staple for Djibouti and Somalia, which mainly consume belem—the imported red rice. Tanzania is also a major producer and source of rice in the region while Kenya and Uganda are minor producers. Both red and white sorghum are produced and consumed in the region.
Food insecurity worsens with below-average Gu harvest
In most southern agropastoral areas, including Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, Lower Juba, and parts of Lower and Middle Shabelle, below-average and erratic Gu rainfall has led to significantly below-average Gu harvests. Of particular concern are riverine areas of Hiiraan where poor rainfall and flooding destroyed an estimated 80 percent of standing crops. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently exist in Hiiraan and are likely in the remaining areas starting in October.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. For each FEWS NET country and region, the Price Bulletin provides a set of charts showing monthly prices in the current marketing year in selected urban centers and allowing users to compare current trends with both five-year average prices, indicative of seasonal trends, and prices in the previous year.
29 juillet 2016, Rome -**Un rapport élaboré par les deux agences onusiennes alerte sur le sort de millions de personnes vivant dans les 17 pays touchés par des conflits prolongés et qui se trouvent actuellement en situation de grave insécurité alimentaire. Selon le document présenté au Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU, ces conflits entravent également les efforts mondiaux visant à éradiquer la malnutrition.**
Situation Analysis of Children – A call for action to realize the rights of all Somali children
MOGADISHU, Somalia, 1 August 2016 – UNICEF, together with the Federal Government of Somalia, donors and partners, today launched the Situation Analysis of Children in Somalia 2016.
- Refugee returns from Kenya to Somalia continue
- Post-Gu assessment projects a gloomy food security outlook
- AWD/cholera cases decline due to robust response
- Humanitarian funding to Somalia declines but needs remain high
Refugees continue to trickle back home
Some 11,000 Somalis return from Kenya in the first half of 2016
Briefs for UN Security Council highlight how millions of people remain trapped in a vicious cycle of violence and hunger
Joint FAO-WFP news release
29 July 2016, Rome - Protracted conflicts affecting 17 countries have driven millions of people into severe food insecurity and are hindering global efforts to eradicate malnutrition, two UN agencies have warned in a report submitted to the UN Security Council.
Several Dutch aid organisations have joined their efforts to help drought victims in Somalia, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia. Millions of people are in acute need. The organisations, united as the Dutch Relief Alliance (DRA), offer relief aid as a well as long term aid, to help the people recover.
July 25th, 2016 ― Doha: In one year of the agreement between Qatar Red Crescent Society (QRCS) and its Somali counterpart, numerous relief and development projects were implemented for the benefit of victims of drought, amid deteriorated economic, security, and living conditions.
In total, these projects helped more than 175,000 direct beneficiaries, let alone hundreds of thousands of indirect beneficiaries from local communities.
Due to resource shortfalls, WFP is prioritizing relief and curative nutrition programming for IDPs and recovery for drought affected communities. However, this means that WFP may be forced to significantly reduce seasonal safety programmes in the forthcoming lean season, risking an increase in the number of people classified in Stressed and Crisis status (IPC Phase 2&3) by the end of the year.