Somalia: Drought - 2015-2018Ongoing
The 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon had a severe impact on vulnerable people in Somalia - it worsened an already widespread drought in Puntland and Somaliland with a devastating impact on communities and their livelihoods, increasing food insecurity, cash shortages and resulting in out-migration and death of livestock. Those affects are now emerging in other areas of the country, specifically in Jubaland in the south. Somaliland and Puntland have experienced below average rains for up to four seasons, spanning two years, and affecting nearly 1.4 million people. (OCHA, 28 Nov 2016)
The humanitarian situation in Somalia is rapidly deteriorating and famine is a strong possibility in 2017. This comes only six years after a devastating famine led to the death of more than a quarter of a million people – half of them children. The severe drought is a result of two consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, more in some areas. In the worst affected areas, large-scale crop failure and high levels of livestock deaths are occurring. Malnutrition and drought-related diseases are on the rise, so are displacements, including to Ethiopia. Increasing competition for resources such as water is already increasing local tensions and could trigger further inter-communal conflict. Over 6.2 million people-half the population-are in need of humanitarian assistance. The situation of children of Somalia is particularly grave. (OCHA, 17 Feb 2017)
As of 31 May 2017, there had been an estimated 739,000 drought displacements since November 2016...More than 480,000 of the displaced, or 65 per cent, are under the age of 18. Moreover, people under 5 years old represent more than one-quarter (195,000) of all those displaced — and are the most at risk of malnutrition and disease. (UNHCR, 31 May 2017)
3.2 million people are severely food insecure. This situation is expected to persist throughout 2017 given the high likelihood of a third consecutive poor harvest in July. Access to food is relatively better than previously projected due to large-scale humanitarian assistance...102,263 people have been treated for Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) since January. SAM admissions have increased by more than 50% since 2016. The Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU)’s post-Jilaal 2017 survey indicates a high prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (15% to 30%) in the Bay, Bakool, Sool, Sanaag, Bari and Nugal regions, as well as in Baidoa and Mogadishu IDP camps. (OCHA, 16 Jun 2017)
While the latest FSNAU assessments show a decrease of the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance from 6.7 million to 6.2 million people, the threat of localized famine countered by scaled-up humanitarian response is as relevant today as it was in the first months of this crisis. The Gu harvest will provide temporary relief for some communities in terms of food availability, but the harvest is reduced due to poor rains and access to food remains constrained. Prices will remain elevated through at least early 2018. Malnutrition, one of the leading indicators of the crisis, has reached emergency levels in a number of locations in southern and central Somalia, primarily, though not exclusively among displaced populations. Overall, some 388,000 acutely malnourished children are in need of critical nutrition support, including life-saving treatment for more than 87,000 severely malnourished children. Nearly 895,000 internally displaced people due to drought and conflict rely almost exclusively on assistance for basic services and life support. Major AWD/Cholera and measles outbreaks are also of continued concern. Through robust humanitarian assistance and the modest benefits from the underperforming Gu rains, the situation has stabilized but remains of serious concern at emergency levels. Whereas there is a modest decline in the number of people in need, there is an increase in the number of persons in the emergency-phase (IPC 4) compared to the previous assessment. When the threat of famine was announced in February, the number of people in need stood at 6.2 million. (OCHA, 31 Aug 2017)
Humanitarian partners are closely following what could become another failed rainy season in a context of continued risk of famine and deteriorating humanitarian indicators. According to the October Rainfall Update for Somalia by the FAO-managed Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM), the Deyr 2017 rainy season, which usually runs from October to December, kicked off in the last week of September in the north eastern areas and second week of October in southern and central regions. Many places in Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Middle Juba received rains at the start of the season. (OCHA, 30 Oct 2017)
Food security is expected to improve for agricultural and agropastoral households in January with the Deyr harvest. In both areas, though, improvements will be short‐lived and many households will face food consumption gaps through mid‐2018. In a worst‐case scenario of an extended absence of assistance, Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains possible, and continued large‐scale assistance is needed throughout 2018 to protect lives and livelihoods. (FEWSNET, 30 Dec 2017)
Food security has improved significantly in many of the areas worstaffected by the 2016/17 drought, as a result of large-scale humanitarian assistance and improvements in seasonal performance. Most areas of the country are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2), though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes exist in some areas and among IDP populations. Between July and September, in the absence of continued humanitarian assistance, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely in riverine livelihood zones and northern and central Somalia. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is likely in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone. (FEWSNET, 30 Jun 2018)
The record levels of rainfall seen during the April – June Gu rainy season have ushered in hopes of the substantial replenishment of water resources, and the restoration of cropland and livestock numbers across many areas of Somalia. The latest food security outlook by the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET) and the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) reports that food security will improve significantly in many of the areas worst-affected by the 2016/17 drought, as a result of improvements in seasonal performance supported by large-scale humanitarian assistance. However, the magnitude and intensity of the rains, coupled with the subsequent flooding, has aggravated vulnerabilities. Vulnerable communities, still recovering from the adverse effects of protracted drought, are among those who have been most severely affected by flooding. (OCHA, 05 Jul 2018)
Appeals & Response Plans
Maps & Infographics
Most read reports
- UnSettlement: Urban displacement in the 21st century: City of flight -New and secondary displacements in Mogadishu, Somalia (November 2018)
- Global Humanitarian Overview 2019 [EN/AR/FR/ES/ZH]
- Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 4, December 2018
- Drought Crisis in Somalia: More coordination is needed to face upcoming humanitarian crises
- East Africa Seasonal Monitor: December 09, 2018
Launch of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2019 and the World Humanitarian Data and Trends 2018
The recent improvements in the humanitarian situation in Somalia are threatened by the poor performance of the Deyr rainy season, particularly for some areas in the North. Furthermore, despite a reduction in the overall number of people requiring assistance (currently, 4.2 million), the figure remains higher than the pre-crisis level from two years ago. That said, markets in Somalia are healthy, as populations continue to enjoy the dividend of a generally abundant 2018 Gu rainy season (April - July).
DEYR RAINFALL PERFORMANCE
As Somalis flee to cities, Mogadishu becomes most crowded city in Africa
11 December 2018 - Conflict and natural disasters from 2017 – 2018 caused massive displacement to cities – says new report from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).
Short-term pasture and water improvements likely over the Eastern Horn with late season rainfall
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT:
Unfavourable prospects for 2018 “deyr” crops in key southern cropping areas due to poor seasonal rains
“Gu” 2018 main season cereal production estimated at 147 000 tonnes, about 60 percent above average, due to abundant seasonal rains
Above average “gu” rains supported substantial recovery of rangeland and livestock body conditions
Prices of coarse grains declined to low levels in recent months following local harvests and sustained food assistance operations
Significant October to December rainfall deficits to result in below-average crop and livestock production
As of September 2018, close to 240,0001 mostly Somali refugees reside in Dadaab refugee complex. With continued conflict, instability and drought, causing new displacement in Somalia as well as reduced humanitarian funding in Dadaab, there is need to strengthen the knowledge of future return intentions and movement patterns of the refugee population. Since May 2017, REACH has worked with the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) on developing tools and methodologies for data collection in the three camps of Dadaab refugee complex (Dagahaley, IFO, Hagadera).
In November, 26,000 new displacement were monitored by the UNHCR-led Protection and Returns Monitoring Network (PRMN), a decrease compared to last month. Half of the displacements occurred in Bakool region due to lack of livelihood as pastoralists search for greener pastures. In 2018 so far, PRMN has monitored 858,000 internal displacements due to conflicts, floods and drought.
It is estimated there are 2.6 million internally displaced people in Somalia.
While COP24 is meeting in Katowice, Poland, to find practical solutions to the most pressing environmental crisis of our times, the effects of climate change are already taking their toll on the most vulnerable communities worldwide.
The drought in Somalia is a clear example that more needs to be done in terms of coordinated humanitarian response to prepare for the threats of global warming.
The humanitarian crisis in Somalia continues to be driven by conflict, recurrent climatic shocks, and political and socioeconomic challenges. Access to basic services remains restricted and protection risks high. An estimated 2.6 million people are displaced. One third of Somalis (4.2 million) will require humanitarian assistance and protection in 2019. Some 1.5 million people are acutely food insecure in Emergency (IPC4) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3); and some 2 million in Stress (IPC 2).
Urgent legislative and policy measures crucial to ensure zero hunger
FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document isto provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 10, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S.
Following a drought in 2016/2017, families across Somalia have suffered loss of income and displacement. ACTED's cash transfer programme empowers affected households to absorb the shock of climate-related disaster while maintaining their economic autonomy.
Highlights - Deyr seasonal rains have underperformed so far.
Over 4.2 million people will need assistance in 2019.
Lughaye, six months after Cyclone Sagar.
IDP woman attains self-reliance.
Sustained humanitarian funding leads to reduced needs.
Deyr season records poor rains
Seasonal rains have underperformed so far
This quarterly update is compiled by OCHA ROSEA to support growth in innovative policy, practice and partnerships in humanitarian action to better engage with disaster-affected communities across Southern and Eastern Africa.
Global trends and challenges
More than 1 per cent of people across the planet right now are caught up in major humanitarian crises. The international humanitarian system is more effective than ever at meeting their needs – but global trends including poverty, population growth and climate change are leaving more people than ever vulnerable to the devastating impacts of conflicts and disasters.