Ethiopia: Drought - 2015-2018Ongoing
While Ethiopia battles residual needs from the 2015/2016 El Niño-induced drought, below average 2016 autumn rains in the southern and southeastern parts of the country have led to a new drought in lowland pastoralist areas, as well as in pocket areas across the country. As a result, some 5.6 million people in Ethiopia require emergency food assistance in 2017. In addition, 2.7 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers require supplementary feeding, 9.2 million people need support to access safe drinking water, 1.9 million households need livestock support, and 300,000 children between 6-59 months old are targeted for the treatment for severe acute malnutrition in 2017. Drought conditions are expected to peak during the dry December to March jilaal season, which is likely to lead to a sharper deterioration in livestock body conditions, and impacting milk production and nutrition status of the families that depend on livestock for their food and income. During the dry season, the response will be complemented by supplementary food based on regular screenings to ensure the most vulnerable are reached. (OCHA, 17 Feb 2017)
Southern and eastern Ethiopia continue to battle the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole-induced drought, exacerbated by disease outbreaks, large scale loss of livelihood assets and displacement. The humanitarian situation countrywide has been further compounded by below average spring rains – the third consecutive poor/failed rains in the southern drought belt. [...] In the second half of 2017, some 8.5 million people will require emergency food assistance, some 3.6 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers will require supplementary feeding, some 10.5 million people will not have regular access to safe drinking water and some 2.25 million households will require livestock support. Partners also estimate that 376,000 children will become severely acutely malnourished until the end of 2017. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 08 Aug 2017)
Since the revision of the Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD) in August 2017, the humanitarian context in Ethiopia has continued to evolve which has led the Government and humanitarian partners to further adjust the HRD requirements. In the food sector the needs have been revised slightly upwards to accommodate an increase in the number of beneficiaries through the inclusion of 4 million former Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) clients in the HRD. In other sectors such as health and nutrition, needs have also continued to increase mainly due to the deteriorating nutrition situation in Somali region, increase in the number of displaced people, as well as the Fall Army Worm (FAW) outbreak that continues to ravage crops throughout the country. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 19 Oct 2017)
Due to drought and large-scale displacement in the southern and south-eastern lowland areas of Ethiopia, humanitarian needs are expected to remain significant in 2018. As of September 2017, 1.3 million people, 64 per cent of whom are children, are displaced due to conflict and drought. The majority of these people will remain displaced in 2018. (UNICEF, 4 Jan 2018)
The meher assessment findings revealed that two previous years of consecutive drought, compounded with weak rains at the end of 2017 left hundreds of thousands destitute in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia. Poor pasture regeneration and limited water source replenishment for livestock have resulted in acute humanitarian needs and will reduce traditional recovery processes among pastoralist households. Consequently, the food security situation in the lowland agro-pastoral areas is not expected to improve significantly in 2018. Overall, the good harvest in highland areas, is expected to reduce large scale needs in the northern highlands, however reduced harvest and crop loss were experienced due to erratic rainfall in some potential areas. The multi-sector humanitarian response operation established over the course of 2017 will need to be sustained in 2018. The extent of needs and the corresponding humanitarian operation will be reviewed during the belg/gu/ganna assessment in June/July. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 09 Mar 2018)
A recent FEWS NET survey in Dollo Zone of Somali Region suggests food security and nutrition outcomes have improved significantly in areas worst affected by drought in 2016 and 2017. These improvements are largely due to improvements in seasonal performance, continued humanitarian assistance delivery, and declines in disease outbreaks. Currently, worst affected areas such as Dollo Zone and much of southeastern Somali Region are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with humanitarian assistance preventing a further deterioration among some populations, particularly IDPs. While the risk of a deterioration beyond Emergency (IPC Phase 4) has declined, continued humanitarian assistance is needed through at least September... The 2018 Belg (March to May) rains performed very poorly over most northern Belg-producing areas, leading harvests to be as much as 40 percent below average and delayed by one to two months. (FEWSNET, 12 Jul 2018)
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are projected to persist through at least January 2019 across large areas of Somali Region, as drought recovery continues amidst recent conflicts. In addition, ethnic conflicts in Oromia along the Somali border and between West Guji of Oromia and Gedeo of SNNPR have caused significant displacement, restricting typical access to food and income sources. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, only in the presence of humanitarian assistance, are projected to continue. (FEWSNET, 31 Aug 2018)
Appeals & Response Plans
Most read reports
- UNICEF Horn of Africa Drought Situation as of September 2018
- Ethiopia: The 2018 HDRP is facing a US$416.4 million funding shortfall to cover needs until the end of the year
- Les conflits non résolus en Afrique, un facteur clé de l’insécurité alimentaire
- Ethiopia: Agriculture Sector HDRP Monthly Dashboard (October 2018)
- Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 3, September 2018
As of 24 September, an estimated 453,000 IDPs had returned to their places of origin in the West Guji and Gedeo zones.
WFP is planning to conduct a training on warehouse management, pest control and commodity handling in both zones to strengthen the zonal logistics capacity.
WFP and NDRMC (as Emergency Operation Centre Coordinator) co-chaired the Logistics Coordination meeting on 26 September to discuss logistics gaps and the returnee response plan. The meeting was attended by humanitarian partners.
There are an estimated 2.9 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Ethiopia. While in the past years, the recurrent drought and other climate-related reasons triggered displacement, conflict has become the main driver in 2018. The number of people displaced from their homes because of inter-communal fighting and political unrest has doubled in the span of one year. As of July, there were 2.1 million conflict -induced Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) in the country.
Recurrent drought in the densely populated zones of East and West Hararghe has had a severe impact on the food security and overall livelihoods of communities, with failing crops and lack of water and pasture for livestock. This contributes to the two zones accounting for more than 10 percent of both chronic and acute food insecurity in Ethiopia.
Will an El Nino take place?
Current forecasts of Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and expert judgement point to a significant likelihood of an El Nino materializing: currently this stands at 50-55% chance of it happening in the northern hemisphere Autumn and 65-70% chance of it developing in the coming Winter.
How long is it likely to last?
Judging from the forecasts for how SST are likely to evolve, this El Nino, should it materialize, is likely to be relatively short and over by mid 2019.
5,467 mt of food assistance distributed
US$103.5 million, six months (August 2018-January 2019) net funding requirements, representing 46% of total
1.6 million people assisted in July 2018*
ADDIS ABABA - The heads of the United Nations World Food Programme and UNICEF in Ethiopia have made a joint visit to Somali Region of Ethiopia to see firsthand how people affected by recent violence and civil unrest are being assisted.
WFP Country Director, Steven Were Omamo and UNICEF Representative in Ethiopia, Gillian Mellsop visited the regional capital Jijiga on Monday 13 August, where they assessed what further support was needed and emphasized the importance of strong partnerships in improving the situation.
ADDIS ABABA – The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has begun distributing food to tens of thousands of people seeking temporary shelter following violent protests in the Somali Region of Ethiopia.
People fled their homes in the eastern region when violent protests erupted on 3 August. Houses, churches, vehicles and shops were burned, damaged or looted, and WFP was forced to suspend all its operations in the Somali Region. At least 80 people were killed, according to media reports.
Inflation: In June 2018, the inter-annual general inflation stood at 14.7 percent up 1.0 percentage points from last month. Food inflation increased from 14.9 percent last month to 17.9 percent in June 2018. This could pose a serious risk to food security, generally, and of pricing poor household out of the food market, specifically.
Inter annual inflation stood at 13.7 percent in May 2018, with no change from the previous month. Food inflation, declined from 16.1 percent in April 2018, to 14.9 percent in May. But, inflation and increases in food prices are still high and a main concern for food security of poor households.
Seasonally grain prices increase during the June to August lean season. Belg harvest from July on in SNNPR and central Oromia Belg crop producing areas, should temper the rate of cereal price increases.
2.1 million people in the Somali Region being assisted through WFP’s emergency relief assistance
US$ 146 m six months net funding requirements (May - October 2018)
3.5 million people assisted in April 2018
- Inflation: Inflation declined from the previous month but is still high. General inflation declined from 15.2 in March 2018 to 13.1 percent in April. Food inflation declined from 19.9 percent in March to 16.1 percent in April.
2.1 million people in the Somali Region are being supported by WFP’s emergency relief assistance.
851,000 children under five and pregnant and nursing women nationwide are receiving specialized nutritious food to treat moderate acute malnutrition (MAM).
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A joint (UNHCR, WFP and ARRA) annual standardised expanded nutrition survey (SENS) was conducted at Kebribeyah, Awbarre and Sheder camps from 11 to 23 Dec 2017. The three refugee camps are situated in Ethiopia Somali regional state in the Eastern part of Ethiopia.
Jijiga is the capital town of Ethiopia-Somali regional state, eastern part of Ethiopia, which is 635 km from the capital city of Addis Ababa.