Ethiopia: Drought - 2015-2018Ongoing
While Ethiopia battles residual needs from the 2015/2016 El Niño-induced drought, below average 2016 autumn rains in the southern and southeastern parts of the country have led to a new drought in lowland pastoralist areas, as well as in pocket areas across the country. As a result, some 5.6 million people in Ethiopia require emergency food assistance in 2017. In addition, 2.7 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers require supplementary feeding, 9.2 million people need support to access safe drinking water, 1.9 million households need livestock support, and 300,000 children between 6-59 months old are targeted for the treatment for severe acute malnutrition in 2017. Drought conditions are expected to peak during the dry December to March jilaal season, which is likely to lead to a sharper deterioration in livestock body conditions, and impacting milk production and nutrition status of the families that depend on livestock for their food and income. During the dry season, the response will be complemented by supplementary food based on regular screenings to ensure the most vulnerable are reached. (OCHA, 17 Feb 2017)
Southern and eastern Ethiopia continue to battle the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole-induced drought, exacerbated by disease outbreaks, large scale loss of livelihood assets and displacement. The humanitarian situation countrywide has been further compounded by below average spring rains – the third consecutive poor/failed rains in the southern drought belt. [...] In the second half of 2017, some 8.5 million people will require emergency food assistance, some 3.6 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers will require supplementary feeding, some 10.5 million people will not have regular access to safe drinking water and some 2.25 million households will require livestock support. Partners also estimate that 376,000 children will become severely acutely malnourished until the end of 2017. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 08 Aug 2017)
Since the revision of the Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD) in August 2017, the humanitarian context in Ethiopia has continued to evolve which has led the Government and humanitarian partners to further adjust the HRD requirements. In the food sector the needs have been revised slightly upwards to accommodate an increase in the number of beneficiaries through the inclusion of 4 million former Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) clients in the HRD. In other sectors such as health and nutrition, needs have also continued to increase mainly due to the deteriorating nutrition situation in Somali region, increase in the number of displaced people, as well as the Fall Army Worm (FAW) outbreak that continues to ravage crops throughout the country. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 19 Oct 2017)
Due to drought and large-scale displacement in the southern and south-eastern lowland areas of Ethiopia, humanitarian needs are expected to remain significant in 2018. As of September 2017, 1.3 million people, 64 per cent of whom are children, are displaced due to conflict and drought. The majority of these people will remain displaced in 2018. (UNICEF, 4 Jan 2018)
The meher assessment findings revealed that two previous years of consecutive drought, compounded with weak rains at the end of 2017 left hundreds of thousands destitute in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia. Poor pasture regeneration and limited water source replenishment for livestock have resulted in acute humanitarian needs and will reduce traditional recovery processes among pastoralist households. Consequently, the food security situation in the lowland agro-pastoral areas is not expected to improve significantly in 2018. Overall, the good harvest in highland areas, is expected to reduce large scale needs in the northern highlands, however reduced harvest and crop loss were experienced due to erratic rainfall in some potential areas. The multi-sector humanitarian response operation established over the course of 2017 will need to be sustained in 2018. The extent of needs and the corresponding humanitarian operation will be reviewed during the belg/gu/ganna assessment in June/July. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 09 Mar 2018)
A recent FEWS NET survey in Dollo Zone of Somali Region suggests food security and nutrition outcomes have improved significantly in areas worst affected by drought in 2016 and 2017. These improvements are largely due to improvements in seasonal performance, continued humanitarian assistance delivery, and declines in disease outbreaks. Currently, worst affected areas such as Dollo Zone and much of southeastern Somali Region are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with humanitarian assistance preventing a further deterioration among some populations, particularly IDPs. While the risk of a deterioration beyond Emergency (IPC Phase 4) has declined, continued humanitarian assistance is needed through at least September... The 2018 Belg (March to May) rains performed very poorly over most northern Belg-producing areas, leading harvests to be as much as 40 percent below average and delayed by one to two months. (FEWSNET, 12 Jul 2018)
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are projected to persist through at least January 2019 across large areas of Somali Region, as drought recovery continues amidst recent conflicts. In addition, ethnic conflicts in Oromia along the Somali border and between West Guji of Oromia and Gedeo of SNNPR have caused significant displacement, restricting typical access to food and income sources. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, only in the presence of humanitarian assistance, are projected to continue. (FEWSNET, 31 Aug 2018)
Appeals & Response Plans
Most read reports
- Global Humanitarian Overview 2019 [EN/AR/FR/ES/ZH]
- Humanitarian Funding Update November 2018 - United Nations Coordinated Appeals
- In southern Ethiopia, herders join forces to revive rangelands
- Ethiopia Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 68 | 11 - 25 November 2018
- Ethiopia Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 69 | 25 November - 9 December 2018
Launch of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2019 and the World Humanitarian Data and Trends 2018
Every day, an additional 110,000 people are forced into water scarcity: WaterAid
A new ranking by WaterAid of developing countries shows where millions of people are already losing their right to water, increasing their vulnerability to the impact of climate change.
Sudan, Niger and Pakistan are the top 3 countries with the most threatened water supply, based on new analysis of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative measures of access to water, climate patterns and water usage rates.
Global trends and challenges
More than 1 per cent of people across the planet right now are caught up in major humanitarian crises. The international humanitarian system is more effective than ever at meeting their needs – but global trends including poverty, population growth and climate change are leaving more people than ever vulnerable to the devastating impacts of conflicts and disasters.
High risk countries and potential impacts on food security and agriculture
In view of the potential impact of the 2018/19 El Niño on food security and agriculture, high risk countries in Southern Africa, Horn of Africa, Asia and the Pacific and Latin America should be prioritized for further monitoring, analysis and early action.
United Nations-coordinated Appeals
FUNDING REQUIRED $25.20B
FUNDING RECEIVED $11.97B
UNMET REQUIREMENTS $13.23B
PEOPLE IN NEED 135.3 M
PEOPLE TO RECEIVE AID 97.9 M
COUNTRIES AFFECTED 41
Global Humanitarian Funding
FUNDING RECEIVED $17.98B
UN-COORDINATED APPEALS $11.97B
OTHER FUNDING $6.01B
Global Appeal Status
FUNDING REQUIRED $25.32B
FUNDING RECEIVED $10.63B
UNMET REQUIREMENTS COVERAGE $14.69B
PEOPLE IN NEED 133.8M
PEOPLE TO RECEIVE AID 97.4M
COUNTRIES AFFECTED 41
Spotlight on the recent disaster in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia
Will an El Nino take place?
Current forecasts of Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and expert judgement point to a significant likelihood of an El Nino materializing: currently this stands at 50-55% chance of it happening in the northern hemisphere Autumn and 65-70% chance of it developing in the coming Winter.
How long is it likely to last?
Judging from the forecasts for how SST are likely to evolve, this El Nino, should it materialize, is likely to be relatively short and over by mid 2019.
Funding Required: $25.41B
Funding Received: $9.39B
Unmet Requirements: $16.02B
People in need: 134.0M
People to receive aid: 95.8M
Countries affected: 41
• In Q1-2018, the FAO cereal price index rose by 8.6 percent from Q1-2017, while the global food price index declined by 2 percent year-on-year.
• The real price for wheat was 22 percent above Q1-2017 levels: crops suffered dryness in the United States and cold weather in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, leaving production forecasts open to a downward revision.3 World ending stocks remain at record levels.
Funding required: $25.31 B
Funding received: $2.97 B
Funding percentage: 11.8%
People in need: 131.1 M
People to receive aid: 95.1 M
Countries affected: 36
As at 31 March 2018, UN-coordinated Humanitarian Response Plans (HRP) and the Syria 3RP Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan require US$25.31 billion to meet the humanitarian needs of 131.1 million crisis-affected people in 26 countries.
The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2015 showed that a staggering 22 percent of total damage and loss from natural disasters in developing countries was absorbed by the agriculture sector alone.
• In Q4-2017, the global food price index of FAO dropped by 2 percent compared to Q3 and remained at approximately the same level as one year ago.
In contrast, the cereal price index rose by 7.6 percent in comparison to Q4-2016.
• Although the real price2 of wheat fell by 2 percent from Q3-2017, prices are still 19 percent higher than in 2016, even though world ending stocks of wheat are at record levels.
• In Q4, the real price of maize was low at US$119/ mt with only slight variation from Q3-2017 and the previous year.
The headlines in 2017 were full of heart-wrenching stories and images of natural disasters wreaking havoc on communities around the world. When disaster strikes, the immediate concern of all humanitarian responders is, and should be, how to help people meet their basic, urgent needs, like food, water and shelter. But how a response is conducted can have significant implications on how the community recovers — and how fast.
Since its inception over ten years ago, the Global Nutrition Cluster (GNC) has progressed from its early focus on the development of technical tools and materials and filling research gaps to a much greater emphasis on strengthening country coordination and providing surge support to secure appropriate and high-quality nutrition programming in emergency contexts.
BONN – A compelling new report about the impact of climate change on global food security has been launched by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in partnership with the Government of Sweden.
How Climate Change Drives Hunger was unveiled today at the 23rd UN Climate Change Conference - known as COP23 - which is being held in Bonn, Germany.
WHAT is this Analysis Compendium?
This document is part of the Climate Adaptation and Resilience for Food Security: Analysis, Innovations and Standards Series.It provides a compendium of the main findings and lessons learnt from food security climate analyses that have been undertaken by WFP and partners under the Climate Adaptation Management and Innovation Initiative (C-ADAPT).
WHO is this Compendium for?
• The upward trend of FAO’s global food price index in 2017 continued in Q3, with the index 7 percent higher than in Q3-2016; this is particularly the result of higher dairy prices. The FAO cereal price index rose by 8.2 percent over the same period.
• The real price2 of wheat rose by 4 percent from Q2-2017. Although prices are significantly higher than in Q3-2016, world supplies are abundant and production forecasts for Russia and the EU are very favourable.
International prices of wheat increased in September mostly because of weather-related concerns, while maize quotations fell further on crop harvest pressure. International rice prices remained generally firm, supported by seasonally tight availabilities of fragrant rice and strong demand for higher quality Indica supplies.