Ethiopia: Drought - 2015-2018Ongoing
While Ethiopia battles residual needs from the 2015/2016 El Niño-induced drought, below average 2016 autumn rains in the southern and southeastern parts of the country have led to a new drought in lowland pastoralist areas, as well as in pocket areas across the country. As a result, some 5.6 million people in Ethiopia require emergency food assistance in 2017. In addition, 2.7 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers require supplementary feeding, 9.2 million people need support to access safe drinking water, 1.9 million households need livestock support, and 300,000 children between 6-59 months old are targeted for the treatment for severe acute malnutrition in 2017. Drought conditions are expected to peak during the dry December to March jilaal season, which is likely to lead to a sharper deterioration in livestock body conditions, and impacting milk production and nutrition status of the families that depend on livestock for their food and income. During the dry season, the response will be complemented by supplementary food based on regular screenings to ensure the most vulnerable are reached. (OCHA, 17 Feb 2017)
Southern and eastern Ethiopia continue to battle the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole-induced drought, exacerbated by disease outbreaks, large scale loss of livelihood assets and displacement. The humanitarian situation countrywide has been further compounded by below average spring rains – the third consecutive poor/failed rains in the southern drought belt. [...] In the second half of 2017, some 8.5 million people will require emergency food assistance, some 3.6 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers will require supplementary feeding, some 10.5 million people will not have regular access to safe drinking water and some 2.25 million households will require livestock support. Partners also estimate that 376,000 children will become severely acutely malnourished until the end of 2017. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 08 Aug 2017)
Since the revision of the Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD) in August 2017, the humanitarian context in Ethiopia has continued to evolve which has led the Government and humanitarian partners to further adjust the HRD requirements. In the food sector the needs have been revised slightly upwards to accommodate an increase in the number of beneficiaries through the inclusion of 4 million former Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) clients in the HRD. In other sectors such as health and nutrition, needs have also continued to increase mainly due to the deteriorating nutrition situation in Somali region, increase in the number of displaced people, as well as the Fall Army Worm (FAW) outbreak that continues to ravage crops throughout the country. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 19 Oct 2017)
Due to drought and large-scale displacement in the southern and south-eastern lowland areas of Ethiopia, humanitarian needs are expected to remain significant in 2018. As of September 2017, 1.3 million people, 64 per cent of whom are children, are displaced due to conflict and drought. The majority of these people will remain displaced in 2018. (UNICEF, 4 Jan 2018)
The meher assessment findings revealed that two previous years of consecutive drought, compounded with weak rains at the end of 2017 left hundreds of thousands destitute in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia. Poor pasture regeneration and limited water source replenishment for livestock have resulted in acute humanitarian needs and will reduce traditional recovery processes among pastoralist households. Consequently, the food security situation in the lowland agro-pastoral areas is not expected to improve significantly in 2018. Overall, the good harvest in highland areas, is expected to reduce large scale needs in the northern highlands, however reduced harvest and crop loss were experienced due to erratic rainfall in some potential areas. The multi-sector humanitarian response operation established over the course of 2017 will need to be sustained in 2018. The extent of needs and the corresponding humanitarian operation will be reviewed during the belg/gu/ganna assessment in June/July. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 09 Mar 2018)
A recent FEWS NET survey in Dollo Zone of Somali Region suggests food security and nutrition outcomes have improved significantly in areas worst affected by drought in 2016 and 2017. These improvements are largely due to improvements in seasonal performance, continued humanitarian assistance delivery, and declines in disease outbreaks. Currently, worst affected areas such as Dollo Zone and much of southeastern Somali Region are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with humanitarian assistance preventing a further deterioration among some populations, particularly IDPs. While the risk of a deterioration beyond Emergency (IPC Phase 4) has declined, continued humanitarian assistance is needed through at least September... The 2018 Belg (March to May) rains performed very poorly over most northern Belg-producing areas, leading harvests to be as much as 40 percent below average and delayed by one to two months. (FEWSNET, 12 Jul 2018)
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are projected to persist through at least January 2019 across large areas of Somali Region, as drought recovery continues amidst recent conflicts. In addition, ethnic conflicts in Oromia along the Somali border and between West Guji of Oromia and Gedeo of SNNPR have caused significant displacement, restricting typical access to food and income sources. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, only in the presence of humanitarian assistance, are projected to continue. (FEWSNET, 31 Aug 2018)
Appeals & Response Plans
Most read reports
- Ethiopia: The 2018 HDRP is facing a US$416.4 million funding shortfall to cover needs until the end of the year
- Ethiopia: Agriculture Sector HDRP Monthly Dashboard (October 2018)
- Ethiopia: Agriculture Sector Monthly Gap Analysis - Agriculture Emergency Seed and Tools Intervention (October 2018)
- Ethiopia: Agriculture Sector Monthly Gap Analysis - Livestock Intervention (October 2018)
- Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 3, September 2018
Over 100,000 people fleeing ethnic violence have been displaced in BenishangulGumuz (mainly in Kamashi Zone) and Oromia regions (mainly East Wollega and West Wollega zones). There are indications that displacement is rising, though the size of the displaced population is not clear. Urgent humanitarian needs are reported, including food, shelter, NFI and health (The reporter Ethiopia 06/10/2018, La Vanguardia 13/10/2018, Voa News 02/10/2018, OCHA 10/2018, The reporter Ethiopia 06/10/2018).
Recurrent droughts in pastoral Ethiopia have exposed the critical feed shortage that prevails in the country. Between 2000 and 2017, six drought episodes have been registered in the country, of which the latest two (in 2011 and 2016/17) had devastating effects on pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods. The problem emanates from the continued reliance of herders on natural rain-fed pasture, despite a host of factors that are accelerating the scarcity of such resources.
Will an El Nino take place?
Current forecasts of Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and expert judgement point to a significant likelihood of an El Nino materializing: currently this stands at 50-55% chance of it happening in the northern hemisphere Autumn and 65-70% chance of it developing in the coming Winter.
How long is it likely to last?
Judging from the forecasts for how SST are likely to evolve, this El Nino, should it materialize, is likely to be relatively short and over by mid 2019.
East Africa worst hit by internal displacement in first half of 2018
Geneva, 12 September 2018 - Latest figures from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reveal that millions of people across the world have become displaced inside their own country since January. Worldwide, there were 5.2 million new internal displacements associated with conflict and violence in the first half of 2018, based on the analysis of data from the 10 worst-affected countries.
The following trends analysis is put together on the basis of available secondary data at the time of publication. It is representative of the available information and therefore indicative of mixed migratory trends in East Africa & Yemen.
Intercommunal conflict in the Somali and Oromia border regions that escalated on 4 August has led to the internal displacement of more than 141,000 people. Shelter and health assistance are among the most urgent needs for the IDPs. The areas most affected by the conflict are Jijiga in Somali region and East Hararghe area in Oromia, where fatalities among the population were reported. With the exception of a reported influx of around 2,000 displaced people into Mekelle Town of Tigray region, there is no other information regarding the impact of the August events on Tigray.
This paper explores the building of sustainable resilience for food security and livelihood dynamics using the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey panel data. Household resilience scores are derived from measures taken to protect against shocks. The impact of several demographic and socio-economic factors on resilience dynamics is then tested. This paper shows that the experience of resilience in the past leads to a subsequent higher chance of continuing to be resilient (‘true state-dependence’).
Whilst older people have special needs, they also have unique skills, experiences and roles within their families, communities and societies. These roles continue to a certain extent during droughts, though household burdens may increase as younger adults have migrated or are grazing livestock further away.
AMHARA REGION - KEY FINDINGS
LOCATION AND CAUSE OF DISPLACEMENT: 6,810 displaced individuals comprising 1,613 households in 32 displacement sites were identified in Amhara region*. These figures represent a decrease of 78 in the total individuals (-1.13%) an increase of 138 households (+9.36%) and an increase of 7 sites (+28.00%) since round 10 (March/April 2018). 56.25% sites opened in 2017 and 3.1% opened in 2018. Conflict was the primary cause of displacement for an estimated 75% of the displaced population.
GAMBELLA REGION - KEY FINDINGS
LOCATION AND CAUSE OF DISPLACEMENT: 13,477 displaced individuals comprising 2,695 households in 15 displacement sites were identified in Gambella region*. These figures represent a increase of 1,200 in the total individuals (+9.77%) an increase of 242 households (+9.87%) and an increase of 4 sites (+36.36%) since round 10 (March/April 2018). 26.67% sites opened in 2017 and 20.0% opened in 2018. Conflict was the primary cause of displacement for an estimated 100% of the displaced population.
Somali REGION - KEY FINDINGS
LOCATION AND CAUSE OF DISPLACEMENT:
873,666 displaced individuals comprising 142,014 households in 362 displacement sites were identified in Somali region*. These figures represent an increase of 109,521 in the total individuals (+14.33%) an increase of 14,715 households (+11.56%) and an increase of 15 sites (+4.32%) since round 10 (March/April 2018). 65.19% sites opened in 2017 and 5.80% opened in 2018. Conflict was the primary cause of displacement for an estimated 57% of the displaced population.
TIGRAY REGION - KEY FINDINGS
LOCATION AND CAUSE OF DISPLACEMENT: 30,374 displaced individuals comprising 10,994 households in 81 displacement sites were identified in Tigray region. These figures represent an increase of 262 in the total individuals (+0.87%) an increase of 102 households (+0.94%) and an increase of 3 sites (+3.85%) since round 10 (March/April 2018). 9.88% sites opened in 2017 and 18.52% opened in 2018. Conflict was the primary cause of displacement for an estimated 95% of the displaced population.
AFAR REGION - KEY FINDINGS
LOCATION AND CAUSE OF DISPLACEMENT: 53,401 displaced individuals comprising 8,914 households in 54 displacement sites were identified in Afar region*. These figures represent a decrease of 2,974 in the total number of individuals (-5.28%) a decrease of 494 households (-5.25%) and an decrease of 2 sites (-3.57%) since round 10 (March/April 2018). 20.37% sites opened in 2017. Drought was the primary cause of displacement for an estimated 36% of the displaced population.
OROMIA REGION - KEY FINDINGS
LOCATION AND CAUSE OF DISPLACEMENT:
777,047 displaced individuals comprising 126,777 households in 459 displacement sites were identified in Oromia region*. These figures represent an increase of 55,740 in the total individuals (+7.73%) an increase of 8,550 households (+7.23%) and an increase of 39 sites (+9.29%) since round 10 (March/ April 2018). 71.68% sites opened in 2017 and 13.3% opened in 2018. Conflict was the primary cause of displacement for an estimated 81% of the displaced population.
Adaptation of agricultural practices and technologies to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa
2.5 million girls in eastern Africa in urgent need of protection
More than 2.5 million girls have been forced to flee their homes across eastern Africa and are in urgent need of protection, a new report from World Vision has found.
Around 400,000 people have been newly displaced on both sides of the regional borders of Gedeo (SNNP region) and Guji (Oromia region) zones since 1 June (ECHO 19/06/2018). In total, some 700,000 people have been displaced since a new wave of violence between the Gedeo and Guji communities started on 13 April. Insecurity continues to prevent IDPs from returning to their areas of origin (OCHA 14/06/2018; OCHA 22/05/2018; UNICEF 10/05/2018). IDPs are staying in shelters in public buildings and spontaneous IDP sites.
LOCATION AND CAUSE OF DISPLACEMENT: 721,307 displaced individuals comprising 118,227 households in 420 displacement sites were identified in OROMIA region*. These figures represent a decrease of 56,358 in the total individuals (-7.25%), a decrease of 8,693 households (-6.85%) and an increase of 2 sites (+0.48%) since round 9 (January/ February 2018). 79.76% sites opened in 2017 and 4.0% opened in 2018. Conflict was the primary cause of displacement for an estimated 80% of the displaced population.