Ethiopia: Drought - 2015-2018Ongoing
While Ethiopia battles residual needs from the 2015/2016 El Niño-induced drought, below average 2016 autumn rains in the southern and southeastern parts of the country have led to a new drought in lowland pastoralist areas, as well as in pocket areas across the country. As a result, some 5.6 million people in Ethiopia require emergency food assistance in 2017. In addition, 2.7 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers require supplementary feeding, 9.2 million people need support to access safe drinking water, 1.9 million households need livestock support, and 300,000 children between 6-59 months old are targeted for the treatment for severe acute malnutrition in 2017. Drought conditions are expected to peak during the dry December to March jilaal season, which is likely to lead to a sharper deterioration in livestock body conditions, and impacting milk production and nutrition status of the families that depend on livestock for their food and income. During the dry season, the response will be complemented by supplementary food based on regular screenings to ensure the most vulnerable are reached. (OCHA, 17 Feb 2017)
Southern and eastern Ethiopia continue to battle the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole-induced drought, exacerbated by disease outbreaks, large scale loss of livelihood assets and displacement. The humanitarian situation countrywide has been further compounded by below average spring rains – the third consecutive poor/failed rains in the southern drought belt. [...] In the second half of 2017, some 8.5 million people will require emergency food assistance, some 3.6 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers will require supplementary feeding, some 10.5 million people will not have regular access to safe drinking water and some 2.25 million households will require livestock support. Partners also estimate that 376,000 children will become severely acutely malnourished until the end of 2017. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 08 Aug 2017)
Since the revision of the Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD) in August 2017, the humanitarian context in Ethiopia has continued to evolve which has led the Government and humanitarian partners to further adjust the HRD requirements. In the food sector the needs have been revised slightly upwards to accommodate an increase in the number of beneficiaries through the inclusion of 4 million former Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) clients in the HRD. In other sectors such as health and nutrition, needs have also continued to increase mainly due to the deteriorating nutrition situation in Somali region, increase in the number of displaced people, as well as the Fall Army Worm (FAW) outbreak that continues to ravage crops throughout the country. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 19 Oct 2017)
Due to drought and large-scale displacement in the southern and south-eastern lowland areas of Ethiopia, humanitarian needs are expected to remain significant in 2018. As of September 2017, 1.3 million people, 64 per cent of whom are children, are displaced due to conflict and drought. The majority of these people will remain displaced in 2018. (UNICEF, 4 Jan 2018)
The meher assessment findings revealed that two previous years of consecutive drought, compounded with weak rains at the end of 2017 left hundreds of thousands destitute in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia. Poor pasture regeneration and limited water source replenishment for livestock have resulted in acute humanitarian needs and will reduce traditional recovery processes among pastoralist households. Consequently, the food security situation in the lowland agro-pastoral areas is not expected to improve significantly in 2018. Overall, the good harvest in highland areas, is expected to reduce large scale needs in the northern highlands, however reduced harvest and crop loss were experienced due to erratic rainfall in some potential areas. The multi-sector humanitarian response operation established over the course of 2017 will need to be sustained in 2018. The extent of needs and the corresponding humanitarian operation will be reviewed during the belg/gu/ganna assessment in June/July. (Gov't of Ethiopia, OCHA, 09 Mar 2018)
A recent FEWS NET survey in Dollo Zone of Somali Region suggests food security and nutrition outcomes have improved significantly in areas worst affected by drought in 2016 and 2017. These improvements are largely due to improvements in seasonal performance, continued humanitarian assistance delivery, and declines in disease outbreaks. Currently, worst affected areas such as Dollo Zone and much of southeastern Somali Region are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with humanitarian assistance preventing a further deterioration among some populations, particularly IDPs. While the risk of a deterioration beyond Emergency (IPC Phase 4) has declined, continued humanitarian assistance is needed through at least September... The 2018 Belg (March to May) rains performed very poorly over most northern Belg-producing areas, leading harvests to be as much as 40 percent below average and delayed by one to two months. (FEWSNET, 12 Jul 2018)
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are projected to persist through at least January 2019 across large areas of Somali Region, as drought recovery continues amidst recent conflicts. In addition, ethnic conflicts in Oromia along the Somali border and between West Guji of Oromia and Gedeo of SNNPR have caused significant displacement, restricting typical access to food and income sources. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, only in the presence of humanitarian assistance, are projected to continue. (FEWSNET, 31 Aug 2018)
Appeals & Response Plans
Most read reports
- The Crisis Below the Headlines: Conflict Displacement in Ethiopia
- Ethiopia Food Security Outlook, October 2018 to May 2019
- Ethiopia Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 67 | 29 October - 11 November 2018
- East Africa Key Message Update, November 2018
- Ethiopia Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 66 | 15 - 28 October 2018
Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in Yemen and South Sudan
Message from our Regional Director
Despite numerous humanitarian challenges in 2017 in Africa, there were also a number of heart-warming accomplishments. A case in point, was when a local response of Red Crescent teams—and other partners—curbed Somalia's cholera outbreak through the power of local volunteers and shared international expertise. In terms of support to our members, 36 National Societies were able to kick start initiatives that built their capacity through seed grants.
According to FEWSNET, there was an increase in food production due to the continued rainfall experienced in the eastern Horn of Africa. Average to above-average rains are expected to enhance crop and livestock production, increase demand for agricultural labor, and suppress resource-based conflict. Regardless of this, food insecurity persists due to a combination of factors, including conflict, drought recovery, previous and ongoing flooding.
• The Humanitarian and Resilience Donor Group (HRDG) and the United Nations Country Team (UNCT) visited Somali region from 5 to 18 October; met with the new regional Government leadership and discussed humanitarian challenges and development priorities.
Affected population 7.95 m
No. of people displaced due to conflict 2.2 m
No. of people displaced due to climatic shocks 0.5 m
• Humanitarian needs: At least 28 million people (more than half of them children) are in need of humanitarian assistance. Conflict, disease, acute food shortages, high inflation, and inadequate nutrition have left children and their families extremely vulnerable.
- 4.6 million people in need and 954,000 children under-5 that are or could be acutely malnourished in the next year.
- The current number of IDPs in Somalia has increased to 2.6 million from 2.1 million in May.
Despite the benefit of recent Belg rains, recovery of livelihoods will not be spontaneous, nor can it be expected without concerted assistance. Belg rainfall did not cover all regions equally. In the low plains of Afar and Somali Regions, rain has been resulting in floods and damage to irrigation infrastructure and cropland. Some pockets in Afar, Amhara and Tigray reported low or no crop yield.
- Affected population 7.95 m
- MAM 370,00 m
- SAM 416,000 # of people displaced due to conflict 2.2 m
- # of people displaced due to climatic shocks 0.5 m
- US$1.494 billion (Requirement for the 2nd half of 2018 Ethiopia Humanitarian and Disaster Resilience Plan)
- Funding shortfall: US$416.4 million
US$ 416.4 million urgently required to cover needs until the end of the year
At mid-year, Ethiopia was faced with an unprecedented caseload of 2.6 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) affected by conflict and drought, mainly along the Oromia regional border with Somali and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) with children constituting more than half of the displaced population. In line with these changes, UNICEF has revised its Humanitarian Action for Children (HAC) for 2018 and raised the resource envelope to US$ 123.8 million.
Tropical cyclone Luban is expected to bring heavy rains to Yemen and Oman
Africa Weather Hazards
Heavy rainfall in previous weeks has resulted in overflowing of the Niger and Benue Rivers of Nigeria. Moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast to continue, maintaining high risks for flooding.
Severe outcomes likely to persist in several countries despite anticipated regional improvement
Northern seasonal rains forecast to typically subside and likely timely onset for October rains
The June to September seasonal rains gradually subsided in late September, marking the cessation of persistent well aboveaverage rainfall amounts across most of the northern sector, which led to widespread flooding in Sudan. However, some areas of the region experienced significant cumulative seasonal deficits, including some central areas of Ethiopia, eastern and central South Sudan, and northern and eastern Uganda.
Recurrent droughts in pastoral Ethiopia have exposed the critical feed shortage that prevails in the country. Between 2000 and 2017, six drought episodes have been registered in the country, of which the latest two (in 2011 and 2016/17) had devastating effects on pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods. The problem emanates from the continued reliance of herders on natural rain-fed pasture, despite a host of factors that are accelerating the scarcity of such resources.
FACTS & FIGURES
928 000 refugees from South Sudan, Somalia & Eritrea (UNOCHA, IOM, UNHCR)
2.7 million people are displaced by conflict & drought
7.8 million people are in need of emergency food assistance
3.85 million people with acute malnutrition
EU humanitarian funding: €91.5 million in 2017
Despite the benefit of recent Belg rains, recovery of pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods will not be spontaneous, nor can it be expected without concerted assistance. Belg rainfall did not cover all regions equally. In the low plains of Afar and Somali Regions, rain has been resulting in floods and damage to irrigation infrastructure and cropland. Some pockets in Afar, Amhara and Tigray reported low or no crop yield.
Conflicts and climatic shocks aggravate current food insecurity in many countries
Some 39 countries in need of food assistance - FAO expects slightly lower global cereal production
20 September 2018, Rome - Persistent conflicts and climate-related shocks are currently driving high levels of severe food insecurity, particularly in Southern African and Near East countries, which continue to require humanitarian assistance, according to a new report published by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) today.
• Approximately 141,410 people were displaced in Somali region after conflict erupted on 4 August. The conflict led to the exodus of government personnel, leaving essential services significantly understaffed. This in turn created pressing and urgent humanitarian needs for children and women in the region.
• Through UNICEF support, 134,446 people in Gedeo-West Guji received essential and life-saving health care services and 30,579 children under 5 years were treated for Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM).