Indonesia: Drought - Sep 1997
Disaster description
Since September last year, Indonesia is suffering from a severe drought, caused by the strongest El Nino phenomenon in fifty years, which has led to food shortages in many provinces. Concurrently, Indonesia has been caught up in a regional economic crisis that is affecting its ability to import sufficient quantities of rice. Under present circumstances, the Government's ability to mount relief operations at required levels is seriously hampered and ongoing poverty alleviation programmes are being curtailed.
The International Monetary Fund targets indicate that the 1998 GDP growth rate is expected to be minus 5 per cent, compared with an average growth of 3 per cent a year between 1985 and 1995. The rate of inflation could exceed 45 per cent, compared with an average of 8.8 per cent per year from 1985 through 1995. The budget deficit is projected to exceed 3 per cent. Using a GDP growth rate of minus 5 per cent, unemployment could be expected to increase to more than 10.7 million people during 1998. This figure is thought to be understated because agricultural unemployment and especially underemployment in the urban and rural areas are not fully reflected.
In March 1998, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme have undertaken an assessment mission to Indonesia to determine the 1998 food and crop supply situation and to draw up a plan for assistance to the affected population. During the upcoming dry season (starting in May) and through the next major harvest in March/April 1999, WFP conservatively estimates that 7.5 million people of the more than 19.5 million people living in 53 districts of 15 provinces will likely experience acute household food insecurity as a result of the 1997 drought and the deterioration of the economy, unless targeted food aid is provided. On 23 April WFP issued an appeal for assistance to drought victims seeking USD 88,161,781 to cover the food needs of 4.6 million people in 15 provinces including Irian Jaya. (OCHA, 16 May 1998)