Mongolia: Dzud - Dec 2022

As stated by the National Agency for Environmental monitoring and Meterology, the extreme cold had been anticipated (issued on 22 November) starting from 28 November to 2 December. [...] The forecast was materialized during 28 November - 2 December and due to precipitation and snowstorms in the central and eastern provinces during 24-25 November 2022. As of 2 December, in Uvs and Khovd provinces, 216 livestock from 12 households have perished, 2 gers have been completely destroyed, 4 people went missing and 4 found, 2 of them are being hospitalized.

NAMEM released the Dzud risk map on 2 December 2022, which indicates that 16 per cent of the Mongolian territory is at the highest level of risk, 43 per cent is at high level of risk of Dzud, 33 per cent is at moderate risk, 10 per cent is at low and the least level of risk. The most soums with high-level risks are located in Bayan-Ulgii, Uvs, Zavkhan, Bayankhongor, Govi-Altia, Uvurkhangai, Bayankhongor, a few soums in Dornogovi, Sukhbaatar and Dundgovi are also identified to be a very high level of risk. According to NAMEM, Dzud index has a high correlation to livestock mortality (1940 - 2015 plot of Dzud index, drought index and livestock, NAMEM), also, the vegetation index plays a major role in the shaping of winter (Trigger update variation, 501). The high temperature and low precipitation caused severe drought in the summer, which is the reason why the livestock couldn't accumulate enough fat to overcome the winter, and the meteorology office stated anomalous low temperatures in late December. As mentioned before due to the drought and economic inflation, meat price has been significantly reduced, therefore decreasing the income of herders. Combined with the severe winter, the herder households are at risk to fail to meet the immediate basic needs. (IFRC, 8 Dec 2022)

As of 1 February [2023], approximately 70 per cent of Mongolia or a total of 22 Aimags or provinces and 310 Soums or townships, are at either high or extreme Dzud situation. This has directly affected the livelihoods of 191,000 herder households. About 87,000 of these herder households have less than 200 heads of livestock and are considered vulnerable. It is reported that about 416,560 livestock have perished as of early February. Historically, though, the peak of livestock mortality is from February to April. Mongolian herder/pastoralists are heavily reliant on grazing their animals, such as goats, sheep, cattle, horses, yaks and camels, on open rangelands all year round. The availability of sufficient forage is dependent on favorable weather conditions for livestock to have sufficient food during the summer and gain strength to make it through upcoming cold season, as well as for herders to stock hay and fodder for same season. Herders' primary livelihood depends on their livestock, and preventing fatalities is their primary concern. However, in the summer of 2022, Mongolia experienced drought which led to poor pastures and malnourished livestock. The number of livestock entering the winter season also reached an all-time high of 71 million. This means a high number of livestock must be prevented from mortality over the winter season. (OCHA, 6 Mar 2023)

The winter situation has been intensified by the extreme cold wave in January, where the air temperature reached -50 Celsius in Zavkhan and Uvs province. Meanwhile, in other provinces, the air temperature was colder by 3-4 Celsius than multi-year average, and snow coverage height was 37 cm as highest in the central region and averagely 27 cm in the western region, which prevents livestock from grazing. According to NAMEM data, the percentage of Mongolia's land covered in snow has increased from 14 per cent in October 2022 to 43 per cent in February 2023. The whole country experienced high precipitation starting from early November to early December 2022, major snow storms in middle of January 2023 and more precipitation in late February 2023. In November 2022, the lowest temperature reached -47 Celsius in the night in Zavkhan, Khentii, Khuvsgul, Uvs, provinces, due to prolonged and heavy precipitation, over 70 per cent of the country was covered in high snow reaching 37 cm in central region with average of 21 cm, in western region, the average snow height was 24 cm. In January 2023, the peak of cold wave started from 15 January until the end of January. (IFRC, 8 Mar 2023)