East Africa: Armyworm Infestation - Mar 2017Ongoing
As millions of east African farmers seek to recover from a devastating drought, they face a new threat – the fall armyworm. The pest has been recently detected in Kenya and is suspected to have entered the country from Uganda. It is also known to be present in Burundi, Ethiopia and Rwanda. The fall armyworm was first reported in western Kenya by farmers in March 2017, and immediately confirmed by the Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service and Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation. The initial counties infested were Busia, TransNzoia, Bungoma, Uasin Gishu and Nandi. (FAO, 25 Apr 2017)
As of 23 May, Fall Armyworm has affected more than 143,000 hectares of land in major maize and wheat-producing counties [in Kenya]. [FAO] and the Ministry of Agriculture have adopted a planning response figure of 800,000 hectares, which requires US$33.5 million for pesticides and awareness campaigns in the medium term. US$6.6 million is required for an immediate response. (OCHA, UNCT Kenya, 23 May 2017)
In collaboration with [FAO] and other development partners, the Government of Ethiopia has intensified efforts to protect major maize growing areas from the ravage of the fall armyworm. The fall armyworm, which first arrived in Africa in 2016, was intercepted on a few hectares of irrigated maize fields in southern Ethiopia in the last week of February 2017. It has now covered about 52 962 hectares in 144 districts in three of the major maize-growing regional states – Gambella, Oromia and Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR)...The Government of Ethiopia allocated nearly USD 2 million to tackle the problem. (FAO, 30 May 2017)
[F]all armyworm, which has caused extensive damage to maize crops in southern Africa, has spread to the east and has worsened the situation. In Kenya, the pest has so far affected about 200 000 hectares of crops, and in Uganda more than half the country's 111 districts are affected. (FAO, 14 Jul 2017)
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Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in Karamoja likely to persist until July 2019
Food security improvements driven by above-average long rains and low staple food prices
Previous drought and recent conflict maintain Crisis outcomes in the south
Since mid-July, persistent and well above-average seasonal rains in Sudan caused significant levels of flooding. According to reports, over 45,000 people have been affected in West Kordofan, Kassala, El Gezira, Sennar, and Northern states. Meanwhile, large areas of western Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan, and northern Uganda have experienced significant rainfall deficits for the past month, resulting in soil and crop moisture stress.
Harvests in bimodal areas support food access, despite ongoing lean season in Karamoja
Available harvests, low staple prices, and increased milk production improving food security
Food security improves significantly in southeastern areas, but continued assistance is needed
Above-average rainfall received in the north, with increasing risk of early season floods
Record-high rains continue to drive improvements but localized floods strain livelihoods
Extended lean season likely in Karamoja, though Minimal (IPC Phase 1) expected in post-harvest period
Early green harvest consumption supports Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in bimodal areas
Record-high rainfall generally improving outcomes despite flooding impacts
Above-average rainfall across Uganda expected to support favorable first season harvests
Rainfall has been above average throughout Uganda. Although incidences of flooding and water logging have been reported, so far these events are isolated and have not had widespread negative impacts. Harvests are expected to be average and most areas of the country will maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1).
Above-average long rains improving forage and cropping but causing flooding
Précipitations plus abondantes que d’habitude dans le Centre-est de la RDC en cette saison agricole B
La saison agricole A au Nord-est de la RDC et la saison B dans le Centre-est ont démarré depuis le mois de mars 2018 par le semis des principaux vivriers comme le maïs, l’arachide et le haricot. Les activités en cette période consistent aux travaux d’entretien des espaces emblavées en attente des prochaines récoltes qui pourront intervenir à partir de juin 2018 dans les zones citées.
Sorghum makes important contributions to national food supply in the counties covered in this report, accounting for the majority of grain production in Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia (82, 76 and 55 percent, respectively), and smaller amounts in Ethiopia and Uganda (18 and ten percent, accordingly). Sorghum accounts over half of grain consumption in South Sudan and Sudan and nine to 18 percent in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Uganda, respectively.
Despite expected mixed performance, March-May rains expected to mitigate worse outcomes
Despite favorable harvests, limited incomes continue to hinder food access
Likely average Season A harvests to help maintain favorable food access
Overall, the 2018 Season A harvest is expected to be average, despite some production deficits in the east. With existing income-earning opportunities and a favorable Season B rainfall forecast, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to continue countrywide through September 2018. However, some poor households in Kayonza, Kirehe, and Nyagatare districts in Eastern Province may already be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to below-average Season A production.
Minimal (IPC Phase 1) likely in most areas with average second season harvest