- Zambia: Cholera Outbreak - Oct 2017
- Southern Africa: Armyworm Infestation - Jan 2017
- Zambia: Cholera Outbreak - Feb 2016
- Southern Africa: Food Insecurity - 2015-2017
- Southern Africa: Floods - Jan 2015
- Zambia: Floods - Jan 2013
- Southern Africa: Floods - Jan 2011
- Southern Africa: Floods - Mar 2010
- Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic - Apr 2009
- Southern Africa: Floods - Dec 2008
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The Climate Prediction Centre is predicting El Niño climatic conditions during the main 2018-19 growing season with 70-75% probability while IRI has increased the probability to more than 85%. Furthermore, the forecasts suggest a likelihood of a weak to moderate El Niño event. Historically El Niño climatic conditions have resulted in reduced rainfall across the southern part of Southern Africa.
• The 2017-18 rainfall season was characterized by a late start, an extended mid-season dry spell (December-January) and heavy rains from February into April. The dry spell caused moisture stress and wilting of the early planted crops in many areas in Botswana, south-western Madagascar, southern Malawi, southern and some central parts of Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Many countries across the African continent face recurrent complex emergencies, frequent food insecurity, cyclical drought, and sudden-onset disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and storms. In FY 2017, USAID/OFDA continued to respond to urgent needs resulting from disasters and support DRR programs that improve emergency preparedness and response capacity at local, national, and regional levels.
- Most of Southern Africa experienced erratic rainfall, delayed start of rainy season and extended midseason dry-spell from December to February which have wilted early planted crops in the region.
- In March 2018, significant rainfall was received in central and eastern parts of South Africa.
Cereal production during the upcoming harvest season in Southern Africa is expected to be below average, despite the heavy late rains, which benefitted the late planted crops. This is due to a late start of the rainy season, minimal to no rains during the critical planting season (December -January), high temperatures and the prevalence of Fall Armyworm (FAW).
INTRODUCTION & KEY TAKEAWAYS
This Outlook provides an overview of the anticipated humanitarian situation in the Great Lakes region from January to June 2018. It focuses on Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and neighbouring countries—including Angola, Kenya and Zambia—that have received refugees and asylum-seekers due to the DRC crisis.
- 75% shortfall in rain in large parts of the region during January
- 14,732 cholera cases and 218 deaths reported since 2017
- 234,200 people affected by floods and cyclones in 2018
JOHANNESBURG – The twin scourges of another prolonged dry spell and an invasive crop-eating worm are set to sharply curtail harvests across southern Africa, driving millions of people – most of them children – into severe hunger, warns the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP).
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Southern Africa continues to recover from the 2015/2016 El Niño-induced drought, which by January 2017 had affected about 41 million people across the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC)1. The substantial government- and SADC-led response, supported by $900 million from the international humanitarian community2, empowered farmers to take advantage of a good 2016/2017 rainfall season, delivering an April 2017 cereal harvest 3 per cent above the 5-year average.
I. INTRODUCTION AND KEY TAKEAWAYS
Despite the Minister of Agriculture’s maize export ban on commercial traders, exports of maize through WFP’s humanitarian window continues. As of 28 February, cumulative tonnage dispatches (13,000 mt contract) was 5,348 mt.
• Many countries across the African continent face recurrent complex emergencies, frequent food insecurity, cyclical drought, and sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and storms. In FY 2016, as in previous years, USAID/OFDA not only responded to urgent needs resulting from disasters, but also supported DRR programs that built resilience and improved emergency preparedness, mitigation, and response capacity at local, national, and regional levels.
Floods triggered by Tropical Cyclone Dineo impact vulnerable populations in Mozambique, Zimbabwe
FAO convenes regional meeting on armyworm infestations
USAID partners continue to respond to drought-related humanitarian needs throughout Southern Africa
Food Assistance in Numbers
- Over the three month peak of the crisis (January—March), WFP’s aims to reach more than 13 million people with food assistance in Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
- In January, food assistance reached 10.6 million people in the seven countries.
• Food insecurity persists throughout Southern Africa
• Above-average rainfall likely to improve crop production regionally; however, some areas at risk of flooding
• Armyworm infestations damage maize in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
Hunger is not inevitable As 2016 comes to an end, almost 130-million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. Throughout the year, natural hazards, conflict and protracted crises have placed a particularly heavy burden on the poor, who are often extremely vulnerable to shocks. Across 22-affected areas, 70-million people are currently in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 3 or above.
40 million people food insecure in Southern Africa* *including in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
9.3 million tonne shortfall in regional crop production
643 000 livestock death
USD 109 million needed for emergency response until mid-2017
The 2015/16 agricultural season in Southern Africa was the driest in 35 years. In a region where over 70 percent of the population is dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, and following two, and in some cases three, consecutive years of drought, El Niño has had devastating impacts on the lives and livelihoods of farmers and herders.