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Cereal production during the upcoming harvest season in Southern Africa is expected to be below average, despite the heavy late rains, which benefitted the late planted crops. This is due to a late start of the rainy season, minimal to no rains during the critical planting season (December -January), high temperatures and the prevalence of Fall Armyworm (FAW).
Erratic rainfall, high temperatures and persistent Fall Armyworm infestation lower cereal crop production prospects for 2018 in southern Africa.
In the absence of consistent rains for the remainder of the season, dry conditions experienced in December to January will further diminish water supplies for domestic, agricultural and commercial use.
These conditions are likely to have far reaching consequences on access to adequate food and nutrition and ability of farmers to produce in the 2018/19 consumption year.
A. REGIONAL UPDATE
While favourable food security conditions prevail across most of southern Africa, early warning signs provide alarming indications of looming significant food supply shortages that are likely to impact on the next marketing season starting from July 2015. The single major determinant of the negative performance is the erratic and unusually uncharacteristic rainfall season that has just ended.
Regional Update (updated 15th of July 2014)
Regional Update (updated 16 of May 2014)
Despite an erratic and delayed start of season, the overall regional perspective reflects that the 2014/15 consumption season in terms of cereals supplies is much better than last year’s with bumper harvests being recorded in Zambia, South Africa and an improvement in Zimbabwe compared to last season.Malawi and Mozambique are expecting good production despite late onset of rains and localized mid-season dryness. Angola and Namibia were more negatively affected by adverse weather conditions during the season.
· Good rains received in December and early January significantly reduced earlier rainfall deficits experienced in the central parts of the region. Although much later than normal, rains were finally received in southern Malawi, parts of eastern Zambia, and central/northern Mozambique, thus enabling the planting of crops. Poor rainfall continues to negatively affect drought-stricken parts of southwestern Angola.