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The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period January to May 2018. However, the extreme western part of Angola, Namibia, south-western part of South Africa, extreme northwest of DRC and eastern Madagascar are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for some of the seasons.
THE TWENTY FIRST ANNUAL SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM MID-SEASON REVIEW AND UPDATE
12 countries (Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Namibia, Seychelles, Swaziland, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe) had finalised their annual vulnerability assessments by the time that the SADC Dissemination Forum was held. Malawi and Tanzania still had to complete their vulnerability assessments.
Zambia is food secure, with concurrent seven-year production surpluses. With a record 3,606,549 MT harvest along with an additional carry over stock,the total available maize for the 2017/2018 marketing season stands at 4,175,866 MT.
The Refugee Sub-Sub Committee and Legal Experts meeting was convened on 27 – 29 September 2017 in Gaborone, Republic of Botswana to review the Draft SADC Regional Policy Framework on Management of Asylum Seekers and Refugees in line with the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) which forms part of the United Nations New York Declaration, adopted by the General Assembly on 19 September 2016.
The meeting was attended by the Republics of Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, United Republic of Tanzania and the Kingdom of Swaziland.
The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2017 and normal to above-normal rainfall for the January to March (JFM) 2018. However, northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northern Tanzania, the islands states, eastern-most Madagascar and the south-eastern contiguous SADC region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall throughout the 2017/18 rainy season.
In response to a severe drought associated with the 2015/16 El Niño episode, the Southern African Development Community launched a regional humanitarian appeal in July 2016 for $2.4 billion to support the needs of the affected population in the affected Member States.
- Good rains continued to the end of season in most areas, resulting in positive production expectations in several countries.
- The high seasonal rainfall improved dam and groundwater levels, providing good water availability for irrigation over the coming seasons.
- Preliminary reports suggest the regional impact of the Fall Armyworm was not severe. However, experts advise robust, coordinated control measures for coming seasons.
Good performance of the current growing season (Oct 2016 – April 2017) is critical for Southern Africa, after suffering from two consecutive droughts induced by a long lasting El Niño event which led to unprecedented levels of food insecurity.
A severe drought, associated with the El Niño phenomena, resulted in a humanitarian emergency in which an estimated 40 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. Vulnerability assessments and analysis indicated that 23 million required immediate humanitarian assistance, as of June 2016.
In response to this, the Southern African Development Community launched a regional humanitarian appeal for $2.4 billion to support the needs of the affected population in the affected Member States.
Southern and central areas continued to receive well above average rains in January
Poor rainfall was received in western and north-eastern SADC and Madagascar
The Fall Armyworm has been confirmed in 7 countries in the region. The severity of the impact on regional crop production is yet to be established
Tropical cyclones Carlos and Dineo affected the region in early to mid-February. The impacts of Cyclone Dineo are severe, particularly in southern Mozambique
NOVEMBER 2016 – JANUARY 2017 RAINFALL
The southern half of conti-nental SADC region has re-ceived normal to above-normal rainfall in the current rainfall season.
The northern and eastern parts of contiguous SADC are still under normal to below-normal rainfall conditions.
Above-normal rainfall was experienced over Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, south Zambia, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, central and southern Mozambique and Swaziland.
Rains improved in many areas that were affected by severe drought last season
Poor rains have been received in Tanzania and parts of Madagascar, with likely impacts on crop production in affected areas
An armyworm outbreak has affected the region, with reports of outbreaks in Zambia,
Zimbabwe and Malawi. The outbreak in Zambia is particularly severe
OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2016 RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTS
Since late November, the southern African summer monsoon has continued to be dominated by a dipole pattern: with suppressed rainfall in the northeastern parts of the region and Island of Madagascar, and enhanced rainfall in the southern parts of contiguous SADC.
Some significant above-normal rainfalls conditions were observed last past 30 days, across portions of northwestern DRC, west and south of Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and south Mozambique.
SEPTEMBER– NOVEMBER 2016 RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTS
The season started slowly in some areas.
During September to November, wetter than normal areas spread over the central and western Angola, eastern Botswana, north-eastern South Africa, northern Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland.
Seasonally average conditions occurred across north -western DRC, north and west of Tanzania, Madagascar and south Mozambique.
DJF2016/17 RAINFALL UPDATE OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Timely rains commenced in South Africa, Swaziland and eastern Botswana, resulting in planting in some areas and slight improvement in dam levels
Slow and erratic onset of rains was observed in northern parts of the region, and an improvement is expected by late November to early December
Shortfalls in commercial maize seed availability and farmers’ reduced purchasing power may negatively affect harvest prospects in several countries if unaddressed
State of Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in the Southern African Development Community
About 74 percent of the US$2.9billion required for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Regional Humanitarian Appeal is yet to be raised as only US$757 million which translates to 26 percent has been raised by governments and partners.
The money raised so far includes US$222million from SADC governments US$535million from partners. The SADC Regional is facing an estimated cereal shortfall of 9.3million metric tonnes which will have to be sourced from within and outside the region to support the 28 million people requiring urgent humanitarian support.