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This CIFP report provides a global fragility ranking for 2011 for a total of 197 countries. The global rankings indicate that Somalia tops the list of most fragile countries followed closely by Afghanistan, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Yemen, and Central African Republic. Sudan, Eritrea, Pakistan and Cote d'Ivoire round out our top 10.
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The integration of gender specific indicators into early warning systems is crucial for sustaining an effective approach to estimating conflict potential. Conflict affects women and men differently and although these effects vary widely across cultures depending upon the role of women in a particular society, it is clear that armed conflict exacerbates inequalities (Gardam & Charlesworth 2000). The purpose of this paper is to propose measurable indicators sensitive to the experiences of women and enhance early warning capacity to account for these gendered elements of conflict.
Since 1945, more civilians have been killed
as a consequence of gross human rights violations than as a result of international,
colonial and civil wars. Despite increased efforts to understand human
rights violations (HRVs) and internal warfare following the Bosnian war
and Rwandan genocide, minimal attention has been devoted to understanding
the linkage between these two factors. Accordingly, this research essay
will examine the following questions:
1) Is there a link between HRVs and conflict escalation?
This report presents a framework to direct the future efforts of researchers working on the CIFP project to tailor it to the needs of foreign policy analysts and the early warning research community. It describes procedures to translate information from the internationally-recognized CIFP database, in combination with insights from foreign affairs personnel and field level specialists, into reports of imminent dangers.