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22 Sep 2018 description

Al-Shabaab remains focused on recapturing power in Somalia, but it continues to plot attacks in Kenya and Tanzania – and perhaps in Uganda as well. To counter the movement, East African states should eschew heavy-handed crackdowns and work instead to reduce its appeal to potential recruits.

Principal Findings

01 Aug 2018 description

Global Overview JULY 2018

02 Jul 2018 description

Global Overview JUNE 2018

03 Apr 2018 description

Global Overview MARCH 2018

01 Mar 2018 description

Global Overview FEBRUARY 2018

02 Jan 2018 description

Global Overview DECEMBER 2017

23 Nov 2017 description

Growing discontent threatens the dysfunctional and corrupt political system built by President Museveni, who is now manoeuvering to extend his three decades in power by raising a 75-year age limit on presidential candidates. As security, governance and economic performance deteriorates, Uganda needs urgent reforms to avoid greater instability

  • What’s the issue?  Popular discontent is growing over President Museveni’s apparent desire to remain in power while governance, economic performance and security deteriorate.

20 Jan 2017 description

Burundi’s 327,000 refugees are not mere victims but also active citizens, many remaining actively engaged in the country’s problems.

Burundi will soon mark two years since it was propelled into a political crisis by President Pierre Nkurunziza’s determination to be elected to a third term in power. As it stands, more than 327,000 of Burundi’s 11 million people have now sought refuge outside the country according to UN figures from early 2017 – nearly all fleeing since the crisis erupted.

01 Dec 2016 description

Global Overview NOVEMBER 2016

02 Nov 2016 description

Global Overview OCTOBER 2016

31 Oct 2016 description

Mathilde Boddaert, Analyste consultante, Afrique centrale

Si certains réfugiés burundais se sont résolus à la vie en exil, rares sont ceux qui ont laissé derrière eux la crise qui frappe leur pays. Dans cet article, le dernier d’une série de trois, des réfugiés burundais tentent d’envisager l’avenir, entre abattement et désir de reconquérir la « liberté » et une place dans leur société.

31 Oct 2016 description

Mathilde Boddaert, Analyste consultante, Afrique centrale

Les conditions de vie des réfugiés burundais varient selon leurs ressources et la politique du pays d’accueil. Pour quelques-uns, des opportunités se créent ; pour la majorité, le quotidien est synonyme d’attente. Cet article, le deuxième d’une série de trois, retrace des trajectoires bouleversées tandis que les ruptures se superposent – sociales, économiques, scolaires.

31 Oct 2016 description

Mathilde Boddaert, Analyste consultante, Afrique centrale

Plus de 300 000 Burundais ont fui leur pays depuis avril 2015 pour échapper à la répression du régime de Pierre Nkurunziza. Dans cet article, le premier d’une série de trois, des réfugiés burundais partagent leur histoire douloureuse et tentent ainsi de tirer la sonnette d’alarme sur la violence dans leur pays d'origine.

02 Sep 2016 description

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

Global Overview, August 2016

01 Jul 2016 description

Global Overview – Trends and Outlook

01 Jun 2016 description

The month saw Venezuela’s political, economic and humanitarian crisis worsen amid heightened tensions between the government and opposition, a situation which could lead to state collapse and regional destabilisation. Another major setback in electing a new president in Haiti prompted fears of further civil unrest. In West Africa, deadly violence in central Mali and south-east Nigeria spiked, while a power struggle in Guinea-Bissau led to a dangerous standoff.

02 May 2016 description

The month saw fighting escalate again in Syria and Afghanistan, and erupt in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenian-backed separatists and Azerbaijani forces. In Bangladesh, election violence and killings by extremist groups showed how new heights of government-opposition rivalry and state repression have benefitted violent political party wings and extremist groups alike. Political tensions intensified in Iraq and Macedonia, and security forces severely supressed opposition protests in the Republic of Congo and Gambia.

02 Apr 2016 description

The month saw violent extremist movements, including the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda-linked groups, carry out major deadly attacks in Turkey, Pakistan, Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia and Belgium. In Libya, the arrival of Prime Minister Serraj in Tripoli despite warnings from multiple factions could lead to further destabilisation. Meanwhile in Central Africa, political violence rose in Burundi and could break out in Chad around the 10 April presidential election.