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29 Jun 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Update of Seasonal Outlooks at Four-Month Lead:

October-December 2005 Forecasts

East Africa

Climatology is expected across the entire domain.

Northern Horn of Africa

Climatology is expected, except locally over northern Ethiopia and southwestern Sudan, where there is a slight tilt in the odds favoring above average rainfall.

Southern Africa

18 May 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:


Update of Seasonal Outlooks at One-Month Lead: Jun-Aug 2005 Forecasts


Gulf of Guinea Region

Climatology is expected, except locally over southeastern Ghana and the southern areas of Togo and Benin, where there is a slight tilt in the odds favoring above average rainfall.

Northern Horn of Africa

29 Apr 2005 description


Resource Based Conflicts and Food Security in the Greater Horn of Africa: A Preliminary Report on the Conflict Baseline Survey in the Karamojong Cluster of Kenya and Uganda

SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS

10 Mar 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Update of El Niño

Synopsis: A transition from weak warm-episode (El Niño) conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected to continue during the next three months.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased in all of the Niño regions during February 2005. However, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies greater than +1°C (~1.8°F) persisted in portions of the central and western equatorial Pacific.

03 Mar 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

June-August 2005 Forecasts

Sahel:

There is a low to moderate tilt in the odds favoring above normal across central Sahel from western Mali into central Niger. Climatology is expected elsewhere.

Northern Horn of Africa:

The outlook for June-August 2005 at four months lead calls for a slight tilt in the odds favoring above normal rainfall over portions of northern and central Ethiopia. Climatology is expected elsewhere.

Gulf of Guinea Region:

27 Jan 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Tropical Cyclone Update:

Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12) swept across part of southern Madagascar, causing serious flooding but no casualties, local news accounts stated. By the time it reached land the cyclone had been downgraded to a tropical storm, but had wind speeds of about 60 miles per hour. Local flooding has been reported. For the South Indian Ocean, the normal number of tropical cyclones through January is about 12.

Locust Update:

20 Jan 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

CCA Outlook Forecasts: February -- April

Southern Africa:

13 Jan 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Update of El Niño:

Synopsis: Weak warm-episode (El Niño) conditions are expected to continue for the next three months.

07 Jan 2005 description

U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)

BACKGROUND