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17 Dec 2018 description

The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs.

ACAPS analysts conduct daily monitoring and independent analysis of more than 150 countries to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.

The knowledge acquired in this process enables analysts to develop a solid understanding of crisis dynamics and identify trends as well as potential risks, which enabled the selection of these 18 contexts:

10 Apr 2018 description

Afghanistan

In the first week of April, almost 15,000 people were displaced across the country, constituting over 25% of the displacements reported in 2018. Of the 15,000 up to 6,000 people were displaced within Nad-e-Ali/Marja district, Helmand province, due to an ongoing military operation.

There is no humanitarian access to the area therefore the severity of need amongst the IDPs is unclear.

Read more about Afghanistan

Chad

15 Mar 2018 description

Geneva, Thursday 15 March 2018

Humanitarian access has deteriorated in seven countries over the past six months, according to the Humanitarian Access Overview report released today by ACAPS.

Out of the 37 countries included in the report, nearly half of them (18) are currently facing high humanitarian access constraints. Moderate humanitarian access constraints are an issue in nine countries and ten present low humanitarian access constraints.

13 Mar 2018 description

Cameroon

Protection concerns in Southwest and Northwest regions are increasing as the Anglophone crisis deteriorates further.

The security situation is especially worrying in Batibo sub-division. Schools have been targeted and children are among the most vulnerable people affected by the crisis. Cases of SGBV against girls have also been reported in the area. Several villages have been destroyed and deserted. Displacement continues, with the number of Cameroonian refugees registered in Nigeria reaching more than 20,000.

07 Nov 2017 description

South Sudan

Despite having entered the harvest season, there are still some 4.8 million people food insecure in South Sudan. This represents a 1.4 million increase compared with the same time period last year, an indication of a worsening food security situation for 2018.

Some households in Wau and Ayod counties are experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). GAM rates of more than 30% were identified in several areas of Western Bahr el Ghazal.

Read more about South Sudan

29 Aug 2017 description

Myanmar

The conflict in Rakhine state has escalated following a coordinated attack on police and military posts by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army on 25 August.

Over 5,200 Rohingya have fled violence to Bangladesh but only the most vulnerable where allowed to cross the border while an unknown number have been turned away. The government has evacuated 4,000 non-Muslim ethnic Rakhine villagers from the area due to insecurity. Non-essential UN staff are also being evacuated.

18 Aug 2017 description

Our methodology uses 9 indicators, grouped under 3 categories:

  • Access of humanitarian actors to affected population

  • Access of people in need to humanitarian aid

  • Security and physical constraints Each category is measured through proxy indicators, such as violence against personnel, denial of needs, or active hostilities.

Data is collected at the country level and may therefore not show disparities between sub-regions.

31 Jul 2017 description

Overview

The return of refugees from Cameroon, Niger, and Chad has put increased pressure on the already existing displacement situation in Banki, Gamboru, Ngala, Damasak, and Pulka. Between January and June 2017, 35,000 Nigerians have returned to Banki, in Bama LGA from Cameroon. More than 4,500 of the returnees have been relocated to Pulka in Gwoza LGA (UNHCR 11/07/2017). As of April 10, the Nigeria Immigrations Service (NIS) had registered 119,061 returnees from Niger and 339 from Chad (UNHCR 30/04/2017).

25 Jul 2017 description

Ethiopia

A severe food security and nutritional crisis is unfolding as a consequence of the drought that began in October 2016.

The Somali region is most affected and is experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes are likely to manifest in poorer households by September.

07 Jun 2017 description

NIGERIA

There have been 490 cases of Lassa Fever since December 2016, of which 189 were confirmed, and 104 resulted in deaths. This represents an extremely high case fatality rate of 21%, which has been attributed to the ongoing humanitarian situation in the northeast, intense population movement, and poor health response capacity.

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CHAD

28 Mar 2017 description

SOUTH SUDAN

Targeted violence against aid workers has escalated in the past two weeks. On 25 March, seven aid workers from South Sudan and Kenya were killed in a road ambush while travelling from Juba, the capital, to Pibor in Jonglei.

This comes after two IOM staff were killed and three injured in a road ambush in Yirol county in Lakes on 14 March, which led to three humanitarian organisations engaged in cholera response in the area suspending their activities on 23 March.

10 Jan 2017 description

Weekly picks

IRAQ

Multiple bombings across Baghdad killed at least 111 civilians and injured 197 between 2 and 8 January in attacks mostly claimed by IS. In Anbar governorate, an offensive was launched to recapture IS-held territories, raising fears of displacement towards territories west of Ramadi, where access remains severely constrained. In Mosul, despite military advances in the eastern part of the city enabling limited aid deliveries, 700,000 are trapped and out of reach of humanitarian assistance in the west.

01 Dec 2016 description

Introduction

The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.

17 Oct 2016 description

OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST - MARCH 2017

As of 11 August, there was an approximate 55–60% chance of La Niña conditions developing during the last quarter of 2016 and first quarter of 2017. It is forecasted to be weak and short-lived.

31 May 2016 description

Weekly picks

SYRIA

On 27 May, IS launched a three-pronged offensive in Azaz area, which displaced over 45,000 people towards the Bab Al Salam border crossing with Turkey. 15,000 people in Marea are under siege. Most humanitarian workers have been evacuated from the area.

CHAD

19 Apr 2016 description

Syria: In recent weeks, clashes between Islamic State and other non-government forces over the border area between Turkey and Syria have intensified. IDPs in camps located along the border are at risk: over 35,000 have fled the area since 14 April and are in need of protection. Additional displacement is likely.

12 Apr 2016 description

Iraq: The humanitarian situation in besieged Fallujah continues to deteriorate. Supply lines have been cut off since December, when government forces surrounded the city. Islamic State is reportedly preventing people from leaving. Prices of basic food stuffs are 500% above December prices for the third consecutive month. Acute shortages of food, medicine and fuel, as well as cases of starvation and suicide, have been reported.