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21 Nov 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The outlook for conflict and security in the Darfur, Chad, Central African Republic border region in 2009.

SIGNIFICANCE: A pattern of separate but sometimes overlapping conflicts will continue in 2009, despite the stabilising and containing influence of international peace-keeping and civilian protection missions. The respective governments and border regions will also be subject to economic pressures.

ANALYSIS: During 2008, the conflicts in Sudan, Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) remained largely separate, reflecting their distinct underlying political causes.

12 May 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: Rebels of the Justice and Equality Movement on May 10 launched an assault on Omdurman, a western suburb of Khartoum.

SIGNIFICANCE: Omdurman, situated across the Nile from Khartoum proper, is part of the capital's greater metropolitan area. This is the first time a Darfur rebel group has staged an attack on the capital.

12 Mar 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: A new Chad-Sudan peace agreement may be signed today in Senegal.

SIGNIFICANCE: Relations between Sudan and Chad have been plagued by distrust and covert support for each other's rebels. The two governments have repeatedly signed and ignored agreements to stop this support. Separately, new peace-keeping forces are now being deployed in Darfur and eastern Chad, to protect civilians. Nevertheless, no effective ceasefire or peace agreements are in place, and the major conflict in the region -- in Darfur -- continues.

ANALYSIS: The Darfur conflict is now five years old.

13 Dec 2007 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The outlook for conflict and security in the Darfur, Chad, Central African Republic border region in 2008.

SIGNIFICANCE: Over the past two years, the border region between Darfur (Sudan), Chad and the Central African Republic has been particularly affected by overlapping domestic conflicts in each of the three countries. While these have not widened into a greater regional conflict, they have attracted increasing international attention, notably in the form of international peace-keeping and civilian protection missions.

24 Sep 2007 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: Politics and internal armed conflict in Chad.

SIGNIFICANCE: Politics and the economy in Chad have long been marred by corruption, discontent and armed and unarmed opposition to the government. Although exacerbated since 2005 by intermittent spill-over of conflict from Darfur, in neighbouring Sudan, armed conflict in Chad is essentially internally-driven.

ANALYSIS: Prompted by international and domestic pressure, President Idriss Deby has sought since early 2007 to neutralise opposition to his government partly through dialogue.