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The Climate Prediction Centre is predicting El Niño climatic conditions during the main 2018-19 growing season with 70-75% probability while IRI has increased the probability to more than 85%. Furthermore, the forecasts suggest a likelihood of a weak to moderate El Niño event. Historically El Niño climatic conditions have resulted in reduced rainfall across the southern part of Southern Africa.
The SADC Region Food and Nutrition Security Strategy 2015-2025 emphasises that the regional food and nutrition security situation remains unstable and unpredictable.
Almost 16% of SADC’s rural population have been consistently designated food insecure over the past 5 years. This despite improved production in some Member States.
Malnutrition is the result of a complex set of interacting factors that are multi-sectoral, related to health, sanitation and care practices as well as consumption and access to food. Further influencing factors include education, gender, social equity, and the local social and environmental context. These causes of malnutrition are classified as immediate, underlying, and basic, whereby factors at one level influence other levels.
• The 2017-18 rainfall season was characterized by a late start, an extended mid-season dry spell (December-January) and heavy rains from February into April. The dry spell caused moisture stress and wilting of the early planted crops in many areas in Botswana, south-western Madagascar, southern Malawi, southern and some central parts of Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Aug 20, 2018 | Southern African Development Community
Cereal production during the upcoming harvest season in Southern Africa is expected to be below average, despite the heavy late rains, which benefitted the late planted crops. This is due to a late start of the rainy season, minimal to no rains during the critical planting season (December -January), high temperatures and the prevalence of Fall Armyworm (FAW).
The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period January to May 2018. However, the extreme western part of Angola, Namibia, south-western part of South Africa, extreme northwest of DRC and eastern Madagascar are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for some of the seasons.
THE TWENTY FIRST ANNUAL SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM MID-SEASON REVIEW AND UPDATE
12 countries (Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Namibia, Seychelles, Swaziland, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe) had finalised their annual vulnerability assessments by the time that the SADC Dissemination Forum was held. Malawi and Tanzania still had to complete their vulnerability assessments.
The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2017 and normal to above-normal rainfall for the January to March (JFM) 2018. However, northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northern Tanzania, the islands states, eastern-most Madagascar and the south-eastern contiguous SADC region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall throughout the 2017/18 rainy season.
NOVEMBER 2016 – JANUARY 2017 RAINFALL
The southern half of conti-nental SADC region has re-ceived normal to above-normal rainfall in the current rainfall season.
The northern and eastern parts of contiguous SADC are still under normal to below-normal rainfall conditions.
Above-normal rainfall was experienced over Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, south Zambia, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, central and southern Mozambique and Swaziland.
OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2016 RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTS
Since late November, the southern African summer monsoon has continued to be dominated by a dipole pattern: with suppressed rainfall in the northeastern parts of the region and Island of Madagascar, and enhanced rainfall in the southern parts of contiguous SADC.
Some significant above-normal rainfalls conditions were observed last past 30 days, across portions of northwestern DRC, west and south of Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and south Mozambique.
SEPTEMBER– NOVEMBER 2016 RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTS
The season started slowly in some areas.
During September to November, wetter than normal areas spread over the central and western Angola, eastern Botswana, north-eastern South Africa, northern Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland.
Seasonally average conditions occurred across north -western DRC, north and west of Tanzania, Madagascar and south Mozambique.
DJF2016/17 RAINFALL UPDATE OUTLOOK SUMMARY
The region experienced in many parts of the countries, the below normal rainfall conditions depicted by the devastating drought episode associated with the 2015/2016 El Nino event which threatens to impact negatively on livelihoods and quality of lives in the Region.
The SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) had predicted, in August 2015, during SARCOF-19 the below normal rainfall conditions. This was consistent with the observed poor rainfall performance.
The current rainfall 2016/17 outlook is the opposite (reverse) of the last season.
The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2016 and the January to March (JFM) 2017. However, northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) northern Angola, southernmost of Tanzania, northern Mozambique, the islands states of Seychelles and eastern-most Madagascar are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall most of the season.
THE TWENTIETH ANNUAL SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM
JANUARY 2015– MARCH 2015 RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTS
The southern African summer monsoon continued to be very active in the northern part of DRC, Island States and on the vicinity of eastern parts of SADC region.
The region received mostly normal to below normal rain-fall conditions;
Normal to above normal rain-fall conditions were observed over DRC, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles;
During March 2015, a favor-able distribution in rainfall was observed across western sub-region.
DECEMBER 2014– FEBRUARY 2015 RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTS
•The austral summer monsoon continues to be very active over Indian Ocean and in the vicinity of eastern parts of continental SADC.
•The region received: normal rainfall conditions over the easternmost parts of contiguous SADC mostly covered by Botswana, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
•Significant drier-than-normal conditions continued to occur over the western and southern parts of conterminous SADC.
NOVEMBER 2014– JANUARY 2015 RAINFALL
The Southern African summer monsoon was very active over the eastern parts of SADC region with heavy rain mostly concentrated over Island States, southern Malawi, northern Mozambique,
Zambia and Zimbabwe during December 2014 and early January 2015.
Despite those wet spells which brought flooding in some countries, overall normal rainfall conditions were mostly observed in the region;