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30 Nov 2017 description

INTRODUCTION

The Humanitarian Overview: An analysis of key crises into 2018 focuses primarily on the crises that are expected to deteriorate in the coming year and outlines the likely corresponding humanitarian needs.

Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), we have identified 12 countries that are likely to face deteriorating humanitarian situations in 2018. We include a further six countries where the crises are already severe and likely to continue in a similar trend.

07 Nov 2017 description

South Sudan

Despite having entered the harvest season, there are still some 4.8 million people food insecure in South Sudan. This represents a 1.4 million increase compared with the same time period last year, an indication of a worsening food security situation for 2018.

Some households in Wau and Ayod counties are experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). GAM rates of more than 30% were identified in several areas of Western Bahr el Ghazal.

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17 Oct 2017 description

CAR

2 million people in CAR remain in need of food assistance, and 1.1 million people are food insecure (in IPC Phase 3: Crisis and IPC Phase 4: Emergency). Although the Global Hunger Index 2017 shows a general long-term progress in reducing hunger worldwide, CAR's hunger score remained around the mark of 50.9 for the past 17 years. The GHI places CAR at extremely alarming levels of hunger and malnutrition taking into account its levels of undernourishment and mortality rate.

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11 Jul 2017 description

SYRIA

Half of Raqqa’s population is estimated to have fled the city in the past two weeks. WASH conditions are particularly worrying as the supply network is not functioning and sewage systems have been destroyed. Waterborne diseases are on the rise, and a polio outbreak is ongoing. Healthcare services are very limited, in part due to insufficient fuel and electricity. Fleeing the city is becoming more challenging as smuggling fees are increasing.

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06 Jul 2017 description

Key findings

Anticipated scope and scale

While clashes between the government and various opposing armed forces are sporadic as opposed to ongoing, they signify that the ceasefire is unlikely to hold. Coupled with the reduction of UNAMID forces and their decreased capacity to monitor events and protect civilians, direct and indirect attacks on civilians are likely to continue and increase.

13 Jun 2017 description

DRC

23 people were killed in attacks by Batwa fighters in Tanganyika from 25-30 May, resulting in communities from more than five villages fleeing. Provincial authorities have forcibly returned IDPs in Kalemie to their villages of origin in Tanganyika despite widespread insecurity.

In Nord-Kivu, humanitarian access is deteriorating as intercommunal violence has increased over the last six months. ICRC has suspended their operations providing assistance to 25,000 people in Lubero territory after the abduction of two humanitarian staff.

07 Jun 2017 description

NIGERIA

There have been 490 cases of Lassa Fever since December 2016, of which 189 were confirmed, and 104 resulted in deaths. This represents an extremely high case fatality rate of 21%, which has been attributed to the ongoing humanitarian situation in the northeast, intense population movement, and poor health response capacity.

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CHAD

30 May 2017 description

SUDAN

The number of new South Sudanese refugees in 2017 so far (137,000) has surpassed the total for all of 2016, bringing the current total to 417,000. Malnutrition rates are high. In White Nile state, where there are 122,000 South Sudanese refugees, 40% of those in camps are food insecure. A cholera outbreak in the state since April has led to at least 2,750 suspected cases and 49 deaths.

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SYRIA

25 May 2017 description

Anticipated scope and scale

Floods during the rainy season from June until at least October will affect about 200,000 people, mostly in southern Sudan. Particularly vulnerable are the displaced in southern Sudan, where there are 2.3 million IDPs and about 400,000 South Sudanese, 110,000 of whom arrived in 2017. Floods will damage key WASH infrastructure and increase the caseload of diseases including cholera and malaria. Houses will be destroyed and flooding will damage crops and isolate some localities, driving up food prices.

22 May 2017 description

Population Affected

  • 143,000 people are facing Famine in Nigeria and South Sudan

  • 9.9 million people facing Emergency food security outcome levels (IPC 4) in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen

  • Yemen and Somalia could face Famine (IPC 5), if no assistance is provided between May and August

Why are these countries affected by famine?

11 Apr 2017 description

SYRIA

Dozens of hospitals have been hit by airstrikes since February 2017 - the Idlib governorate, where a recent chemical attack killed 89, has been particularly affected.

Many hospitals have stopped being functioning due to damage and health care personnel being killed or fleeing - putting an additional strain on the health system.

Some of those injured in the chemical in Idlib attack had to be transferred to hospitals in Turkey for treatment.

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07 Apr 2017 description

Crisis overview

671 cholera cases have been reported in Awerial county, Lakes, since June 2016, of which at least 117 are new cases since 6 March. Most new cases have been reported in Mingkaman IDP camp. The case fatality rate (CFR) is 1.49% - or ten deaths.

A lack of WASH facilities has been reported, further spreading the outbreak. The upcoming rainy season, from May/June onwards, will also likely further deteriorate the WASH situation and result in an increased number of cholera cases.

04 Apr 2017 description

TURKEY

ACAPS now considers Turkey a humanitarian crisis given the increasing deterioration of humanitarian access across the country.

Since the attempted coup in July 2016, several international and national organisations have had their operations terminated. In late March, five Danchurd Aid staff were deported and five other workers are still detained. Its operations had been stopped.

28 Mar 2017 description

SOUTH SUDAN

Targeted violence against aid workers has escalated in the past two weeks. On 25 March, seven aid workers from South Sudan and Kenya were killed in a road ambush while travelling from Juba, the capital, to Pibor in Jonglei.

This comes after two IOM staff were killed and three injured in a road ambush in Yirol county in Lakes on 14 March, which led to three humanitarian organisations engaged in cholera response in the area suspending their activities on 23 March.

16 Mar 2017 description

OUTLOOK FOR APRIL - JUNE 2017

Since July 2016, the security situation has significantly deteriorated in the Equatorias, which now form the new frontline of the conflict between the government and the opposition. Longstanding local grievances between Dinka and non-Dinka are becoming bound up with more strategic concerns, raising the risk of widespread inter-ethnic violence.

UNDERLYING DRIVERS OF CONFLICT IN THE EQUATORIAS

14 Mar 2017 description

SOUTH SUDAN

As of 9 March, lack of drinking water is reported by 30,000 recently displaced people in Kodok area in Upper Nile. People are drinking untreated water, concerning as cases of cholera were confirmed in Malakal this week. The cholera outbreak has spread to more areas this year and is lasting longer than previous outbreaks.

South Sudan is experiencing deteriorating food security and nutrition countrywide and humanitarian operations are limited as the government has increased work permit fees from USD 11 to USD 10,000.