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30 May 2012 description
report Oxford Analytica

Somalia's main transitional leaders are meeting in Ethiopia this week for talks on implementing the 'Roadmap'. Somalia's biggest Western donors, and the leaders of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Puntland, are focusing on the adoption of a new constitution and an end to the current Transitional Federal Charter before its mandate expires in August. The Roadmap emerged in September 2011 out of the Kampala Accord a few weeks earlier, which had functioned mainly to contain infighting between TFG factions.

01 Sep 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

September 1, 2010

EVENT: A mortar struck the Villa Somalia compound on August 30, killing four African Union peacekeepers.

SIGNIFICANCE: Al-Shabaab launched a fresh offensive against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu in mid-August, following several weeks of moderate setbacks for the group in the capital.

23 Aug 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

August 23, 2010

SUBJECT: A profile of the Somali militia Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen.

SIGNIFICANCE: Following the July 11 Kampala bombings, analysis of al-Shabaab has emphasised its alleged global jihadi nature and the control exercised on its leadership by al-Qaida.

20 Jan 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

January 20, 2010

EVENT: A British sea-captain described yesterday for BBC radio how his freighter evaded an attempted hijacking off the Gulf of Aden in April.

SIGNIFICANCE: The rise of piracy off the Horn of Africa threatens key commercial sea-lanes linking Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

04 Jun 2009 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: Government fighters launched a counter-offensive on June 2 against hardline Islamist militant groups, Hisbul Islam and al-Shabaab.

SIGNIFICANCE: The government has barely survived a concerted assault on Mogadishu, which threatens to derail the Djibouti peace process.

ANALYSIS: Since it moved to Mogadishu in February, the expanded Transitional Federal Government (TFG-Djibouti) has made only limited progress in increasing coherence among the unwieldy coalition of which it is formed.

28 Apr 2009 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: On April 23, an international donor conference in Brussels pledged more than 213 million dollars to bolster security in Somalia.

SIGNIFICANCE: Severe insecurity and the absence of an effective central government in Mogadishu have significantly restricted international engagement in Somalia during the past two years and longer.

05 Nov 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The political and economic outlook for the Horn of Africa in 2009.

SIGNIFICANCE: The region in 2009 will continue to see some of the world's worst humanitarian, political, and security crises, but major political changes are in the air that could yield new opportunities for stability.

ANALYSIS: After a turbulent 2008, the Horn of Africa will continue to face serious challenges into 2009, especially in Somalia.

Key insights

Food insecurity will be a major factor across the region, contributing to economic pressures from high prices and decreased …

03 Sep 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: On September 1, the prime minister overwhelmingly won a confidence vote.

SIGNIFICANCE: The Transitional Federal Government is under pressure to mend its divisions, after reaching a deal with the fractured opposition in June.

13 Aug 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The effect of a growing food emergency on security in the Horn of Africa.

SIGNIFICANCE: Poverty, drought and food insecurity are well known in the Horn of Africa. This latest emergency occurs at a time of global increases in the price of food and fuel and when regional conflicts threaten to destabilise the region.

ANALYSIS: The sharp increase in food and energy prices globally has hurt the poorest and most food insecure regions of the world particularly hard.

07 Apr 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: Insurgents temporarily occupied three strategic towns in southern Somalia on April 3.

SIGNIFICANCE: Hopes for the beleaguered Transitional Federal Government (TFG) were revived this year with attempts by Prime Minister Nur 'Adde' Hassan Hussein to reach out to the opposition for talks "anywhere, anytime".

27 Dec 2007 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The political and economic outlook for the Horn of Africa in 2008.

SIGNIFICANCE: The region in 2008 will continue to be one of the world's most active sites for emergency relief operations, international peace-keeping, and diplomatic efforts to broker and maintain peace.

25 Jul 2007 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: The National Reconciliation Conference, already postponed three times and then forced to adjourn after its opening session, re-opened in Mogadishu on July 21.

SIGNIFICANCE: Although the international community had envisaged it would reconcile the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) with moderate elements of the former Council of Somali Islamic Courts administration, the conference has provoked further divisions over its inclusiveness, location and agenda.