Appeals & Response Plans
- Tropical Cyclone Luban - Oct 2018
- Somalia: Polio Outbreak - Aug 2018
- Tropical Cyclone Mekunu - May 2018
- Tropical Cyclone Sagar - May 2018
- Somalia: Flash Floods - Apr 2018
- Somalia: Measles Outbreak - Dec 2016
- Somalia: Floods - May 2016
- Somalia: Cholera Outbreak - Apr 2016
- Tropical Cyclone Megh - Nov 2015
- Tropical Cyclone Chapala - Nov 2015
Most read reports
- National Micronutrient Survey launched in Somalia [EN/SO]
- Aid agencies estimate that 4.2 million people in Somalia will need humanitarian assistance and protection in 2019
- 2019 Somalia Humanitarian Needs Overview
- Somalia CCCM Cluster Dashboard - December 2018
- Somalia CCCM Cluster Dashboard - November 2018
• At the conclusion of the Deyr/short rains season, there remain large areas of drier-than-normal conditions across Somalia, in parts of eastern and southern Ethiopia, in eastern Kenya, and along the Kenya-Uganda border. However, December rainfall alleviated cumulative deficits in parts of the eastern Horn, bringing short-term but significant relief to pasture and water resources.
Little to no rainfall was received across much of Somalia, as is typical in late December
Moderate to heavy rainfall in South-Central and climatologically dry conditions in the North
Most southern regions received light to moderate rainfall between December 1 and 10 according to remote sensing imagery, and rainfall was average to above-average in localized areas of Bay, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba regions. According to satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2), most of the South received 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) of rainfall, though rainfall was minimal in large parts of Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan regions (Figure 1).
Short-term pasture and water improvements likely over the Eastern Horn with late season rainfall
FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document isto provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 10, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S.
FEWSNET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days(dekad) through the end of the current Octoberto December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through November 30, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S.
• Significant rainfall deficits continue to accumulate in the eastern half of the Horn of Africa as the Deyr season progresses. Deficits are -25 to -100 mm or worse in southern and central Somalia, central and eastern Kenya, and southeastern and other localized parts of Ethiopia.
• Favorable cropping conditions have been maintained in the western sector of the East Africa region, despite an erratic onset of the rainy season and poorly distributed, below-average rainfall amounts in parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Kenya.
Rainfall expected to increase, signaling the full onset of the October to December seasonal rains
• The onset of the October to December seasonal rains during the first three weeks of October was generally erratic in terms of intensity and spatial and temporal distribution across East Africa.
The start of the Deyr was delayed one to three weeks in Somalia and parts of Ethiopia, most notably in the agropastoral livelihood zones of southern Somalia.
Northern seasonal rains forecast to typically subside and likely timely onset for October rains
The June to September seasonal rains gradually subsided in late September, marking the cessation of persistent well aboveaverage rainfall amounts across most of the northern sector, which led to widespread flooding in Sudan. However, some areas of the region experienced significant cumulative seasonal deficits, including some central areas of Ethiopia, eastern and central South Sudan, and northern and eastern Uganda.
During the month of August, Sudan continued to receive significantly above-average rainfall, which caused additional widespread flooding, fatalities, livestock and crop losses, and infrastructure damage. As moderate to localized heavy rainfall is forecast over the next two weeks, particularly in southern areas, a heightened flood-risk is expected through mid-September.
Since mid-July, persistent and well above-average seasonal rains in Sudan caused significant levels of flooding. According to reports, over 45,000 people have been affected in West Kordofan, Kassala, El Gezira, Sennar, and Northern states. Meanwhile, large areas of western Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan, and northern Uganda have experienced significant rainfall deficits for the past month, resulting in soil and crop moisture stress.
The water point map viewer, which monitors 234 water points from Mali to Somalia, will help a range of government and non-government actors understand the current availability of water for livestock and human consumption. This will inform food security analysis, humanitarian assistance planning, and a range of other activities
Deyr rains continue in the many parts of southern, central, and northeastern Somalia
Moderate to heavy rains were received from October 11 to 20 in most parts of the South and parts of the central and northeastern regions. However, most parts of the Northwest, including Sool, Sanaag, Toghdeer, Awdal, and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, were generally dry during this period (Figure 1).
First Deyr 2012 rains light to moderate in many parts of southern and central Somalia
Moderate precipitation continues in most parts of the North and some parts of the southern regions
Moderate GU rains in the south and parts of Northwest
Moderate rains ranging from 20 to 40 millimeters (mm) were received in most of the southern and parts of the northwestern regions (Figure 1).However, with the exception of pockets in Bari and Nugal regions, most of the Northeast received light showers or remained dry during the third dekad of April (21‐30). Similarly most central regions received little rain. (extract)
Interpreting March-May seasonal forecasts for the Eastern Horn of Africa
Though forecasts are relatively weak, FEWS NET’s forecast analysis suggests that, in the most‐likely scenario, March‐May rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa will be ten percent belowaverage and poorly distributed. A mediocre season would not be expected to have substantial negative impacts on crop and livestock production.
Interpreting early March-May seasonal forecasts for the Eastern Horn of Africa
The March to May season is the major rainfall period for pastoral and agricultural areas of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and most of Somalia, accounting for 50‐60 percent of annual rainfall in many parts of the sub‐region (Figure 1). These rains are also critical for the secondary Belg season in Ethiopia.