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15 Aug 2017 description

Civil war, political instability, the presence of terrorist militias, drought, famine: the current situation for most countries in the Horn of Africa is a cause for concern. Because of the difficulties and despite the immense challenges, international commitment to the region has remained strong. Switzerland also has a presence on the ground: through its governmental institutions and NGOs, it is trying not only to deal with the most pressing issues but also to establish stability and lasting peace, either directly or by supporting local organizations.

31 Oct 2007 description


In December 2006, the dissolution of the Somalia Islamic Courts Council (ICC), that attempted to unify Somalia under an Islamic state based on Shari'a law, opened up a political vacuum. Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which is unpopular, weak and dependant on Ethiopian support, is unable to fill this gap. The previous FAST updates had reported increasing tendencies towards destabilization and political devolution in Somalia since the defeat of the ICC. The TFG's military efforts to stabilize Somalia became difficult and progress remained halted.

11 Sep 2007 description

POLITICAL

On 15 July, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) organized the long-awaited National Reconciliation Conference (NRC) in Mogadishu. External actors described the NRC as the last best chance for Somalia's troubled TFG to bring national consolidation and broaden its public support. But so far the progress of the NRC, both in terms of establishing political front and gaining external support, has not been promising.

31 Jul 2007 description


Security

Between 18-26 April, the TFG-Ethiopian forces undertook their second massive military operation against insurgents in Mogadishu, which included Islamist fighters and the Hawiye clan militia. The offensive aimed at bringing about a turning point in Somalia's political struggles. However, the offensive failed (see graph). Insurgency attacks continued, the possibility for a political solution was ruled out and the initiatives of external actors were constrained. The present update briefly assesses the overall situation since the offensive.

30 Mar 2007 description

Security

The Council of Somali Islamic Courts (SIC), which had attempted to unify Somalia on the basis of political Islamism since June 2006, was quickly overthrown by the Ethiopian military intervention of December 2006. External actors consider the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) as the only authority to bring order to Somalia. However, part of the external assistance promised to the TFG has been conditioned on a reconciliation process with moderate elements of the Islamic Courts, dissident warlords and other leaders of the Hawiye clan.

31 Jul 2006 description


Country Stability and Forceful Events (relative)


Average number of reported Events per month: 126.5


Risk Assessment