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20 Apr 2012 description
report Oxford Analytica

Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir yesterday threatened to give South Sudan's government "a final lesson by force". His comments mark the latest escalation in violent rhetoric between Khartoum and Juba, which has increased sharply since South Sudan occupied the Heglig oil field near the border earlier this month. Bashir's government is engaged in armed conflict with rebels in Sudan's southern and western states (Blue Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur), and conflict with South Sudan on its border.

05 Nov 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

November 5, 2010

SUBJECT: Conflict early warning systems.

SIGNIFICANCE: The importance of conflict early warning systems has increased significantly in recent decades, primarily owing to the international community's failure to prevent the Rwandan genocide in 1994, the mass atrocities in the Balkans in the mid-1990s and more lately the violence in Darfur.

ANALYSIS: Conflict early warning systems (CEWS) are employed mainly to predict, prevent and respond quickly to violent conflicts, and as a means of protecting and preserving life.

20 Oct 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

October 20, 2010

EVENT: The African Union reported on October 16 that Central African countries were working to ensure that the Ugandan rebel group, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), is classified as a terrorist organisation.

SIGNIFICANCE: Displaced from northern Uganda, the LRA has for more than two years been a persistent threat to civilians in neighbouring Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Central African Republic.

ANALYSIS: In December 2008, the Ugandan Army (UPDF) launched operation "Lightning Thunder" against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in …

27 Jul 2009 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: Political, security and humanitarian prospects in Darfur.

SIGNIFICANCE: The Darfur conflict is still unresolved and is a complicating factor for wider issues in Sudan, such as elections planned for 2010. In response to the conflict, major humanitarian operations have become entrenched in Darfur and a joint UN-African Union peace-keeping mission has been deployed to the region.

09 Jun 2009 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: On June 6, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement reiterated its rejection of the 2008 census results.

SIGNIFICANCE: The census results are an important basis for electoral preparations and future calculations about wealth and development-sharing. With elections looming and the referendum on Southern Sudanese independence due in 2011, pressures on the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement are growing.

ANALYSIS: Elections are required under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and have been scheduled for February 2010.

21 Nov 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The outlook for conflict and security in the Darfur, Chad, Central African Republic border region in 2009.

SIGNIFICANCE: A pattern of separate but sometimes overlapping conflicts will continue in 2009, despite the stabilising and containing influence of international peace-keeping and civilian protection missions. The respective governments and border regions will also be subject to economic pressures.

ANALYSIS: During 2008, the conflicts in Sudan, Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) remained largely separate, reflecting their distinct underlying political causes.

21 Oct 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: On October 15 Southern Sudan's minister of finance, Kuol Athian, revealed that military spending was set to far exceed budget.

SIGNIFICANCE: Since early October, pirates have been holding a Ukrainian freighter off the coast of Somalia, which has a cargo of 33 tanks and related arms and equipment. Despite denials from Kenya and the Southern Sudanese government, speculation has grown that they were part of an escalating arms race between the national government in Khartoum and Southern Sudan.

12 May 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: Rebels of the Justice and Equality Movement on May 10 launched an assault on Omdurman, a western suburb of Khartoum.

SIGNIFICANCE: Omdurman, situated across the Nile from Khartoum proper, is part of the capital's greater metropolitan area. This is the first time a Darfur rebel group has staged an attack on the capital.

12 Mar 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: A new Chad-Sudan peace agreement may be signed today in Senegal.

SIGNIFICANCE: Relations between Sudan and Chad have been plagued by distrust and covert support for each other's rebels. The two governments have repeatedly signed and ignored agreements to stop this support. Separately, new peace-keeping forces are now being deployed in Darfur and eastern Chad, to protect civilians. Nevertheless, no effective ceasefire or peace agreements are in place, and the major conflict in the region -- in Darfur -- continues.

ANALYSIS: The Darfur conflict is now five years old.

13 Dec 2007 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The outlook for conflict and security in the Darfur, Chad, Central African Republic border region in 2008.

SIGNIFICANCE: Over the past two years, the border region between Darfur (Sudan), Chad and the Central African Republic has been particularly affected by overlapping domestic conflicts in each of the three countries. While these have not widened into a greater regional conflict, they have attracted increasing international attention, notably in the form of international peace-keeping and civilian protection missions.

23 Oct 2007 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: Darfur peace talks are set to begin in Libya on October 27.

SIGNIFICANCE: On October 11, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) suspended its participation in Sudan's national government, accusing the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of not cooperating and not implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) fully.

17 Jul 2007 description
report Oxford Analytica

An Oxford Analytica In-depth Analysis

SUBJECT: The political dynamics of the Darfur conflict and the wider situation in Sudan.

SIGNIFICANCE: More than four years after it escalated, and more than a year after the Darfur Peace Agreement was signed, the Darfur conflict remains unresolved. In military terms, it is largely confined to Darfur and the adjoining border with Chad.