- Southern Africa: Armyworm Infestation - Jan 2017
- Southern Africa: Floods - Jan 2017
- Southern Africa: Food Insecurity - 2015-2017
- Mozambique/Malawi: Cholera Outbreak - Feb 2015
- Southern Africa: Floods - Jan 2015
- Tropical Cyclone Hellen - Mar 2014
- Mozambique: Floods - Jan 2013
- Tropical Storm Irina - Mar 2012
- Mozambique: Storms and Floods - Jan 2012
- Southern Africa: Floods - Jan 2011
The Climate Prediction Centre is predicting El Niño climatic conditions during the main 2018-19 growing season with 70-75% probability while IRI has increased the probability to more than 85%. Furthermore, the forecasts suggest a likelihood of a weak to moderate El Niño event. Historically El Niño climatic conditions have resulted in reduced rainfall across the southern part of Southern Africa.
• The 2017-18 rainfall season was characterized by a late start, an extended mid-season dry spell (December-January) and heavy rains from February into April. The dry spell caused moisture stress and wilting of the early planted crops in many areas in Botswana, south-western Madagascar, southern Malawi, southern and some central parts of Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Cereal production during the upcoming harvest season in Southern Africa is expected to be below average, despite the heavy late rains, which benefitted the late planted crops. This is due to a late start of the rainy season, minimal to no rains during the critical planting season (December -January), high temperatures and the prevalence of Fall Armyworm (FAW).
Erratic rainfall, high temperatures and persistent Fall Armyworm infestation lower cereal crop production prospects for 2018 in southern Africa.
In the absence of consistent rains for the remainder of the season, dry conditions experienced in December to January will further diminish water supplies for domestic, agricultural and commercial use.
These conditions are likely to have far reaching consequences on access to adequate food and nutrition and ability of farmers to produce in the 2018/19 consumption year.
• For the last 2/3 weeks four of the five JCISA priority countries have reported zero cases:
Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe
• Angola also reporting a considerable reduction in cases.
• The Tanzania outbreak considerably reduced but continues with sporadic cases persisting in Dar es Salaam.
• Tanzania outbreak continues but with significant reduction in cases.
• A small outbreak in North Western Zambia bordering with DRC is reported to be under control and managed by MOH.
• Angola has seen a reduction in cases but the last official report available is that of week 8 - 26 February.
Good performance of the current growing season (Oct 2016 – April 2017) is critical for Southern Africa, after suffering from two consecutive droughts induced by a long lasting El Niño event which led to unprecedented levels of food insecurity.
The Joint Cholera Initiative for Southern Africa (JCISA) is a multi-agency technical partnership bringing together WHO, UNICEF, UNOCHA and OXFAM supporting national governments with the primary goal being to “strengthen regional capacity and collaboration in order to ensure more timely, integrated and effective technical support to countries in the areas of cholera preparedness, response and resilience”.
Pleasing to report is the noticeable decline in cases in Tanzania – for week six, only 20 cases were reported and indeed, the daily bulletin for 19 February states that “No (0) new suspected cholera case was reported”. This is the first zero case report since the current outbreak started in August 2015!
The outbreak in Soyo, North West Angola has now spread to Cabinda; the Angolan enclave north of the Congo river (see map), with a total of 146 cases reported between 13 December 2016 and 18 January 2017 (latest Government Bulletin). The Ministry of Health has activated the Cholera prevention Commission (Comissão de luta contra o cólera), and have produced a national strategic epidemic response plan on 09 January 2017. This lays down responsibilities at all levels from National to municipal authorities.
The El Niño induced drought resulted in 15 percent drop in regional cereal production from 29 million tonnes in 2015 to 26 million tonnes in 2016 which is about 11 percent decrease compared to the five-year average1 . Southern parts of Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar as well as most of Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Botswana and Namibia have been significantly affected by this drought.
Approximately 40.8 million people (22.5% of rural population) will be food insecure in Southern Africa up to March 2017.
An extensive regional scale crop failure is expected in Southern Africa following an extremely dry cropping season. Consequently, the current regional cereal deficit of 7.9 million tonnes will increase steeply and unprecedented food price movements will continue through to the next harvest season. This will aggravate the food and nutrition security, health and HIV situation in the region.
A. REGIONAL UPDATE
(Pretoria, 08 November 2013): A groundbreaking study into the threats likely to confront southern African communities over the next decade has been released. Titled Humanitarian Trends in Southern Africa: Challenges and Opportunities, the study identifies regional and global factors that may impact the lives and livelihoods of southern Africans and, as importantly, the available capacities to address these challenges.