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24 Mar 2016 description

INTRODUCTION

SCENARIOS FOR APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2016

These scenarios are a description of situations that could occur in the coming six months, with their associated humanitarian consequences. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness, and promote preparedness activities for those responding to this crisis.

See the Methodology section for more information on how these scenarios were developed.

CURRENT SITUATION

01 Mar 2016 description

SITUATION OVERVIEW

  • Sea arrivals to Greece averaged 12,800 per week in February, a reduction from 13,500 in January and 22,500 in December. Daily numbers fluctuated from a few to around 4,800. Bad weather and sea conditions are considered the main reasons for the reduction.

09 Feb 2016 description

SITUATION OVERVIEW

  • Sea arrivals to Greece reduced to an average of 13,500 per week in January, from 22,500 in December. Numbers fluctuate from 0-5,000 per day. Service provision becomes inadequate when high numbers of migrants arrive and when onward transport to the mainland is disrupted causing temporary build ups to occur. Similar issues occur at Idomeni, where there are recurrent border closures.

  • The conditions migrants find in Greece are still mostly inadequate, whilst conditions further along the route have improved.

11 Jan 2016 description

OVERVIEW

Since the number of arrivals of asylum seekers, refugees and other migrants1 to Europe significantly increased in March 2015, several key developments have characterised the crisis and the response to existing needs. This note provides an overview of these events and current context by country. The note is aimed at humanitarian responders who recently started or are planning to start working on the migrant crisis in the Balkans.

22 Dec 2015 description

Key findings

• The main current humanitarian concerns are the impact of selective entry procedures along the route, the increased shelter/NFI needs in the winter months, the situation of unaccompanied minors, and the unpredictability of flow and political developments that hamper response planning.

• None of the Balkan countries currently have the capacity and/or financial resources to address the full spectrum of humanitarian needs, making Governments, particularly Greece, reliant on external support for an important part of the service provision.

06 Nov 2015 description

Crisis Overview

Over 800,000 asylum seekers and refugees have made their way towards Europe by land and sea in 2015. As the sea route to Italy via North Africa is longer and more risky, and as the number of Syrians have increased, more people are traveling through Greece and then through the Balkans to reach northern and western Europe. The main pattern of movement is from Greece to the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) in a northwestern route through Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia towards Austria and Germany.

04 Nov 2015 description

INTRODUCTION

SCENARIOS FOR NOVEMBER 2015 – JULY 2016

This scenario document provides a description of situations that could occur in the coming six to nine months, with their associated humanitarian consequences. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for those responding to this crisis.