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24 Mar 2016 description

INTRODUCTION

SCENARIOS FOR APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2016

These scenarios are a description of situations that could occur in the coming six months, with their associated humanitarian consequences. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness, and promote preparedness activities for those responding to this crisis.

See the Methodology section for more information on how these scenarios were developed.

CURRENT SITUATION

09 Jul 2015 description
map Maplecroft

In recent weeks, the Turkey to Greece sea passage has surpassed the North Africa to Italy route in volume of migrants and asylum seekers attempting to reach Europe. Increasing numbers of refugees are fleeing extreme human security situations in Syria (ranked 1st and most at risk out of the 198 countries assessed in Verisk Maplecroft’s Human Rights Risk Index 2015), Iraq (3rd) and Afghanistan (5th), placing further pressures on a weakening Greek economy and struggling infrastructure.