Sri Lanka

October 2015 – Trends

• Deteriorated situations
  Central African Republic, Israel/Palestine, Macedonia, Republic of Congo, South China Sea, Turkey

• Improved situations
  Iran

November 2015 – Watchlist
- Conflict risk alerts
Turkey

• Conflict resolution opportunities

September 2015 – Trends

• Deteriorated situations
  Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Somalia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Yemen

• Improved situations
  Colombia, Guatemala, Macedonia

October 2015 – Watchlist

• Conflict risk alerts
  Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic

• Conflict resolution opportunities
  Colombia

Snapshot 11–17 February 2015

Myanmar: Fighting between the Myanmar army and the MNDAA, an insurgent group in the Kokang area of Shan state, displaced tens of thousands of people. Some fled into central Myanmar, while between 30,000 and 50,000 are thought to have crossed into Nansan, Yunnan province, China.

Snapshot 4–10 February 2015

Guinea: An increase in Ebola case numbers has been reported for the second consecutive week. Resistance to the response remains high in Forecariah, worst affected by the outbreak; though ten prefectures have reported at least one incident of resistance. Clashes between armed forces and the community were reported in Matoto, Conakry.

Snapshot 28 January – 3 February 2015

DRC: 30,000 refugees have fled CAR for Equateur province since December. In North Kivu, 18,000 new IDPs need humanitarian assistance; another 21,000 are in need in South Kivu. Nationwide, food security is worsening: over one-third of territories are in Crisis or Emergency phases.

Snapshot 21-27 January

Nigeria: Boko Haram attacks continue, with Borno state capital Maiduguri and nearby military bases targeted on 25 January. Security forces pushed BH back from Maiduguri, but further attacks are expected. BH also raided villages in Michika local government area, Adamawa state. There are reports that BH has forbidden the use of vehicles in areas under its control.

Snapshot 14–20 January

Cameroon: 50,000 people are estimated displaced due to the recent increase in Boko Haram (BH) attacks in the northern regions. In the past week, an attack on a military base in Kolofata resulted in 143 BH killed, subsequently, BH kidnapped 80 people from one village – with three killed and 24 later released. The conflict has escalated regionally, with Chad pledging military support in Cameroon’s fight against Boko Haram.

Nigeria: Violence has escalated significantly in the northeast. Boko Haram killed more than 2,100 people in the first 11 days of the year. Most were killed in an attack on the town of Baga and surrounding settlements in Borno state, on Lake Chad. Up to 20,000 people were displaced. Other attacks took place in Maiduguri, Damaturu, and Potiskum.

Snapshot 10–16 December

Iraq: 700,000 IDPs, mostly in Dahuk and Anbar governorates, are living in shelters that are not adapted for winter temperatures. 945,000 IDPs are in dire need of kerosene for heating.

Afghanistan: Kabul has been hit by at least 12 suicide attacks since early November, with more attacks also carried out elsewhere, fuelling concerns about the protection of civilians.

Niger: 10,000 refugees arrived in Diffa region from Damasack, Nigeria. Most were fleeing forced recruitment by Boko Haram, and some unaccompanied children were reported. More than 105,000 people have arrived from Nigeria since May 2013, and the rate is increasing. The newly displaced are in a critical situation, and Diffa faces serious gaps in service provision.

Pakistan: Drought conditions in Sindh have affected nearly 1.7 million people; nearly 500 have died in Tharparkar, including 296 children. In FATA, the number of people displaced by the military’s operation Khyber One in the Tirah Valley has grown to 440,000 people, adding to 993,000 displaced by operations in North Waziristan.

Liberia: Two million children are thought to be affected by the consequences of the Ebola epidemic. High levels of unemployment are affecting income: 70% of households in a recent survey said they do not have enough money to afford food.

Snapshot 12–18 November

Ethiopia: Waters have begun to recede from Leitchuor refugee camp in Gambella, but few refugees have returned to the camps so far, where alarming rates of severe malnutrition persist: 5.7% in Leitchuor, 7.8% in Kule, and 10% in Tierkidi. In SNNPR, flooding was reported, while in Oromia, water trucking has begun for populations affected by drought.

Snapshot 5–11 November

Central African Republic: About 20,000 displaced people are seeking refuge in isolated rural areas in Ouham province following the arrival of armed groups in Boguila, Kouki and Nana Bakassa on 25 October. Nearly 1,000 people have been displaced since July in Bambari following violence in Batobadja and Matchika, and 4,000 have been displaced since January to Berberati town in Mambere province.

Central African Republic: In Ouaka prefecture, fighting among rival militias persists. Attacks on a number locations, including Bambari, have left dozens of people dead, and civilians have been executed. 3,000 people remain displaced from Bangui after violence began in the middle of the month.

DRC: A resurgence of ADF-NALU attacks in North Kivu are thought to have displaced 100,000 people, and killed at least 80. In South Kivu, there has been a significant increase in IDPs, mainly due to insecurity in Shabunda and Fizi territories. 7.3 million people across the country are estimated to be food insecure.

Central African Republic: 5,600 people have fled Bangui after a new wave of violence killed at least eight and injured 56. WASH and health are priority needs among the IDPs. A UN peacekeeper was ambushed and killed on the outskirts of the capital. In Kemo, IDPs have been slow to return as tensions have increased: ex-Seleka attacked Dekoa market on 11 October.

Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone: At 1 October, the total cumulative number of reported Ebola cases across the three countries had reached 7,470, including 3,431 deaths. However, the Centers for Disease Control estimates that only 40% of cases are being reported in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Social tensions and insecurity are growing. Many of the 3,700 children who have lost parents to Ebola are being rejected out of fear of infection.

Iraq:Up to 13% of IDPs are located in areas that are currently not considered accessible by humanitarian actors. The overall number and geographical spread of IDPs pose a major challenge for provision of assistance. Approximately 1.5 million individuals are in need of emergency food assistance. An estimated 580,000 people are in urgent need of emergency shelter assistance.

Almost seven years after the devastating tsunami of 2004, more than 20 nations* will participate on 12 October in a full-scale exercise to test the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System. This exercise, organized under the auspices of UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, will also see responsibility for the issue of advisories handed over to the countries of the region through a new regional tsunami advisory service.