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30 May 2012 description
report Oxford Analytica

Somalia's main transitional leaders are meeting in Ethiopia this week for talks on implementing the 'Roadmap'. Somalia's biggest Western donors, and the leaders of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Puntland, are focusing on the adoption of a new constitution and an end to the current Transitional Federal Charter before its mandate expires in August. The Roadmap emerged in September 2011 out of the Kampala Accord a few weeks earlier, which had functioned mainly to contain infighting between TFG factions.

04 Jun 2009 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: Government fighters launched a counter-offensive on June 2 against hardline Islamist militant groups, Hisbul Islam and al-Shabaab.

SIGNIFICANCE: The government has barely survived a concerted assault on Mogadishu, which threatens to derail the Djibouti peace process.

ANALYSIS: Since it moved to Mogadishu in February, the expanded Transitional Federal Government (TFG-Djibouti) has made only limited progress in increasing coherence among the unwieldy coalition of which it is formed.

05 Nov 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The political and economic outlook for the Horn of Africa in 2009.

SIGNIFICANCE: The region in 2009 will continue to see some of the world's worst humanitarian, political, and security crises, but major political changes are in the air that could yield new opportunities for stability.

ANALYSIS: After a turbulent 2008, the Horn of Africa will continue to face serious challenges into 2009, especially in Somalia.

Key insights

Food insecurity will be a major factor across the region, contributing to economic pressures from high prices and decreased …

13 Aug 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The effect of a growing food emergency on security in the Horn of Africa.

SIGNIFICANCE: Poverty, drought and food insecurity are well known in the Horn of Africa. This latest emergency occurs at a time of global increases in the price of food and fuel and when regional conflicts threaten to destabilise the region.

ANALYSIS: The sharp increase in food and energy prices globally has hurt the poorest and most food insecure regions of the world particularly hard.

27 Dec 2007 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The political and economic outlook for the Horn of Africa in 2008.

SIGNIFICANCE: The region in 2008 will continue to be one of the world's most active sites for emergency relief operations, international peace-keeping, and diplomatic efforts to broker and maintain peace.