Appeals & Response Plans
- Tropical Cyclone Sagar - May 2018
- Ethiopia: Floods and Landslides - Apr 2018
- Ethiopia: Floods - Aug 2017
- Ethiopia: Measles Outbreak - May 2017
- East Africa: Armyworm Infestation - Mar 2017
- Ethiopia: Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD) Outbreak - May 2016
- Ethiopia: Floods - Apr 2016
- Ethiopia: Floods - Oct 2015
- Ethiopia: Drought - 2015-2018
- Ethiopia: Floods - Oct 2014
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- Ethiopia Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 68 | 11 - 25 November 2018
Short-term pasture and water improvements likely over the Eastern Horn with late season rainfall
• Significant rainfall deficits continue to accumulate in the eastern half of the Horn of Africa as the Deyr season progresses. Deficits are -25 to -100 mm or worse in southern and central Somalia, central and eastern Kenya, and southeastern and other localized parts of Ethiopia.
• Favorable cropping conditions have been maintained in the western sector of the East Africa region, despite an erratic onset of the rainy season and poorly distributed, below-average rainfall amounts in parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Kenya.
Rainfall expected to increase, signaling the full onset of the October to December seasonal rains
• The onset of the October to December seasonal rains during the first three weeks of October was generally erratic in terms of intensity and spatial and temporal distribution across East Africa.
The start of the Deyr was delayed one to three weeks in Somalia and parts of Ethiopia, most notably in the agropastoral livelihood zones of southern Somalia.
Northern seasonal rains forecast to typically subside and likely timely onset for October rains
The June to September seasonal rains gradually subsided in late September, marking the cessation of persistent well aboveaverage rainfall amounts across most of the northern sector, which led to widespread flooding in Sudan. However, some areas of the region experienced significant cumulative seasonal deficits, including some central areas of Ethiopia, eastern and central South Sudan, and northern and eastern Uganda.
During the month of August, Sudan continued to receive significantly above-average rainfall, which caused additional widespread flooding, fatalities, livestock and crop losses, and infrastructure damage. As moderate to localized heavy rainfall is forecast over the next two weeks, particularly in southern areas, a heightened flood-risk is expected through mid-September.
Since mid-July, persistent and well above-average seasonal rains in Sudan caused significant levels of flooding. According to reports, over 45,000 people have been affected in West Kordofan, Kassala, El Gezira, Sennar, and Northern states. Meanwhile, large areas of western Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan, and northern Uganda have experienced significant rainfall deficits for the past month, resulting in soil and crop moisture stress.
The water point map viewer, which monitors 234 water points from Mali to Somalia, will help a range of government and non-government actors understand the current availability of water for livestock and human consumption. This will inform food security analysis, humanitarian assistance planning, and a range of other activities
Interpreting March-May seasonal forecasts for the Eastern Horn of Africa
Though forecasts are relatively weak, FEWS NET’s forecast analysis suggests that, in the most‐likely scenario, March‐May rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa will be ten percent belowaverage and poorly distributed. A mediocre season would not be expected to have substantial negative impacts on crop and livestock production.
Interpreting early March-May seasonal forecasts for the Eastern Horn of Africa
The March to May season is the major rainfall period for pastoral and agricultural areas of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and most of Somalia, accounting for 50‐60 percent of annual rainfall in many parts of the sub‐region (Figure 1). These rains are also critical for the secondary Belg season in Ethiopia.
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
Office of Communication
119 National Center
Reston, VA 20192
A. Park Williams
Maps produced by USGS, FEWSNET, and EROS Data Center
USGS/EROS Data Center.
Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania
Rufiji Basin in Tanzania