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30 Jun 2007 description

During the reporting period the security situation in central Ethiopia remained relatively stable (see graph) but violence increased significantly in the volatile Somali Regional State (SRS). Conflict between the Ethiopian army and the two armed opposition groups, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), reportedly continued.

Following the attack of the ONLF on Abole oilfield in late April, the government security forces launched a vast operation against the ONLF.

30 Apr 2007 description

Trends in Conflict and Cooperation

Security

In the period under review the internal and border security of Ethiopia deteriorated. Armed Ethiopian opposition movements intensified their attacks within Ethiopia. In early March, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF) abducted five Britons and eight Ethiopians on a visit to the northern part of the Afar Region close to the Eritrean border. The British citizens were released on 12 March and the Ethiopians on 23 April. Ethiopia dismissed ARDUF's claim of responsibility for the action and put the blame on Eritrea.

28 Feb 2007 description

POLITICAL

The unexpected stance taken by the majority of legal opposition parties against the ruling party's decision to militarily intervene in Somalia was believed to have weakened the position of the ruling party. It has also led to speculations that the growing gap between the EPRDF administration and the Ethiopian people could gain momentum. However, all these speculations proved unfounded after the successful Ethiopian military operation in Somalia.

31 Dec 2006 description

Monitoring activities in Ethiopia have temporarily been suspended since January 2006 due to the increased curbing of press freedoms and resulting effects on our Local Information Network. Consequently, there is no data set for the period under review. We have, however, included in this Special Update, a detailed list of events that are pertinent to the themes covered as background to the qualitative analysis.

Country Stability and Conflictive Domestic Events

Compared with the first half of the year, in the second half of 2006 internal conflictive events registered a sharp decline.

30 Jun 2006 description

Monitoring activities in Ethiopia have temporarily been suspended since January 2006 due to the increased curbing of press freedoms and resulting effects on our Local Information Network. Consequently, there is no data set for the period under review. We have, however, included in this Special Update, a detailed list of events that are pertinent to the themes covered as background to the qualitative analysis.

30 Jun 2005 description

Risk Assessment:

The Country Stability index shows a certain degree of improvement in January before deteriorating substantially in May and June. The proportion of Forceful Actions, though remaining at a low level during the first quarter of the year, rose significantly over the past three months.