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28 Mar 2013 description

Africa Report N°200
28 March 2013

Nairobi/Brussels, 28 March 2013: Change is in the air in Eritrea, a highly authoritarian state, but any political transition will require internal political inclusion and channels for external dialogue if it is to preserve stability and improve Eritrean life.

23 Dec 2008 description

Nairobi/Brussels, 23 December 2008


Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Several attempts to create a transitional set-up have failed, and the current one is on the brink of collapse, overtaken yet again by an Islamist insurgency, despite the support of an Ethiopian military intervention since December 2006. Over the last two years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world's worst humanitarian and security crises.

17 Jun 2008 description

Africa Report N°141 - 17 June 2008


The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia's refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally implemented it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo.

05 Nov 2007 description


The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military buildup along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis.

24 Sep 2003 description

Nairobi/Brussels, 24 September 2003: The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a course toward war -- which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 -- or solidify their peace agreement. Ethiopia must decide whether to allow demarcation of the border to begin in October 2003, even though the international Boundary Commission, set up under the Algiers agreement to end the fighting, has ruled that the town of Badme, the original flashpoint of the war, is on the Eritrean side.