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02 Sep 2016 description
report World Vision

In the wake of El Niño

We are living in the most unusually warm period in history and this is taking a huge toll on the world’s most vulnerable. 2015 was the hottest year on record and 2016 looks set to be even hotter.
As this year’s El Niño in the Pacific lurches towards becoming a La Nina1 , the run of record temperatures looks set to be broken again. But in some ways, this year is not unique. It has become widely acknowledged among the development community that weather-related disasters are the ‘new normal’.

06 Jul 2016 description
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Overview

The current 2015-2016 El Niño cycle has been one of the strongest on record and has had significant impacts on agricultural production and food security across the globe.

At present, the agriculture, food security and nutritional status of more than 60 million people are affected by El Niño-related droughts, floods and extreme hot and cold weather.

05 Jul 2016 description

What is El Niño?

El Niño is the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which occurs roughly every two to seven years, lasting from six to 24 months.

21 Jun 2016 description

What is El Niño?

El Niño is the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which occurs roughly every two to seven years, lasting from six to 24 months.

25 Apr 2016 description

Background and purpose

The impact of the 2015‒2016 El Niño weather phenomenon has been one of the most intense and widespread in the past one hundred years. The agriculture, food security and nutritional status of 60 million people around the globe is affected by El Niño-related droughts, floods and extreme hot and cold weather. While the El Niño itself has passed its peak and is now declining, its impact is still growing. Harvests in several parts of the world have already failed and are forecast to fail in other areas.

21 Apr 2016 description

Globally, millions of vulnerable people are experiencing increased hunger and poverty due to droughts and floods as a result of a climatic occurrence: El Niño. This phenomenon is not an individual weather event but a climate pattern which occurs every two to seven years and lasts 9-12 months. This particular occurrence is one of the most severe in a half-century and the strongest El Niño since 1997/1998 which killed some 21,000 people and caused damage to infrastructure worth US$ 36 billion.

09 Mar 2016 description

The 2015-2016 El Niño has passed its peak but it remains strong and will continue to influence the global climate. It is expected to weaken in the coming months and fade away during the second quarter of 2016. The World Meteorological Organization states that models indicate a return to an El Niño neutral state during the second quarter of 2016. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions are quite likely through March-April. It is too early to predict if there will then be a swing to La Niña (the opposite of El Niño).

29 Jan 2016 description

60 million PEOPLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY EL NIÑO IN THE FOUR MOST AFFECTED REGIONS

2.8 million PEOPLE REQUIRE HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS

10.2 million PEOPLE IN NEED OF EMERGENCY FOOD IN ETHIOPIA

14 million FOOD INSECURE PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA – EXCLUDING SOUTH AFRICA

El Niño status

28 Jan 2016 description

Highlights

  • As the impact of El Nino translates into increased food assistance needs across most areas of WFP’s operations, WFP could be stretched operationally and financially during 2016.

  • Urgent action is needed to enable WFP to sustain its food and nutrition assistance to affected populations and to help reduce their vulnerability to further shocks.

07 May 2015 description

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Very poor rainfall since February, combined with five consecutive weeks of virtually no rainfall since midMarch, has led to large moisture deficits and rapidly deteriorating ground conditions in Ethiopia, Djibouti, and eastern Eritrea.

  2. Seasonally above-average rainfall, combined with heavy rainfall forecast across eastern Ethiopia and Somalia, is expected to increasethe risk for localized flooding along the Jubba and Shabelle River basins in Somalia.

01 May 2015 description

Drought continues in central and northern Ethiopia, with abnormal dryness in Djibouti and Eritrea

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Very poor rainfall since February, combined with five consecutive weeks of virtually no rainfall since mid March, has led to large moisture deficits and rapidly deteriorating ground conditions in Ethiopia, Djibouti, and eastern Eritrea.

24 Apr 2015 description

Little rainfall expected over atypically dry areas of northern Ethiopia

  1. Erratic, below-average rainfall in February and early March, followed by four consecutive weeks of little to no rainfall since mid-March has led to large moisture deficits and rapidly deteriorating ground conditions in Ethiopia. The absence of mid-season rainfall is likely to adversely affect cropping activities in Belg-producing areas of the country.

17 Apr 2015 description

Belg rainfall remains delayed in Ethiopia, dryness worsens in Malawi and Mozambique

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Rainfall continues to be below-average across several local areas of southwestern and east-central Ethiopia. Further delay of rainfall during April is likely to adversely affect cropping activities for several Belgproducing areas.

10 Apr 2015 description

Abnormal dryness persists in central Ethiopia and bi-modal Tanzania

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Despite an increase in rainfall during the last week, ground moisture remains below average parts of southwestern and east-central Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast in southern and western Ethiopia, while below-average rainfall is expected in the central parts of the country during the next week.

03 Apr 2015 description

Abnormal dryness continues to develop in central Ethiopia and bi-modal Tanzania

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Despite an increase in rainfall during the last week, ground moisture remains below average parts of southwestern and east-central Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast in southern and western Ethiopia, while below-average rainfall is expected in the central parts of the country during the next week.

27 Mar 2015 description

Late season dryness spreads across much of Southern Africa

  1. Below-average rainfall since February has resulted in rainfall deficits in southwestern Ethiopia.
    Rainfall forecast during the next week should help alleviate deficits.

  2. Below-average rainfall over bi-modal northern Tanzania during the past several weeks has increased rainfall deficits and affected crop conditions. A significant increase in rainfall is expected across Tanzania and neighboring countries in late March.

13 Mar 2015 description

Abnormal dryness continues in much of southern Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Below-average rainfall since February has resulted in rainfall deficits in southwestern Ethiopia. Dry weather is expected to continue during the next week, which is likely to increase moisture deficits in the region.