23 entries found
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05 Nov 2014 description
  • Both poor seasonal rainfall and downstream flooding along the Jubba and Shabelle Rivers are expected to negatively affect many local areas in southern Somalia.
  • The continued delays in rains lead to strengthening moisture deficits across several areas in Angola and South Africa.
01 Oct 2014 description
  • Favorable, late-season rains continued throughout many regions of West Africa during the last week.
  • Significantly heavy rainfall forecast over northern Somalia and eastern Ethiopia.

1) Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and negatively affected the development of already-planted crops over the Arsi and West Arsi zones in central Oromia of central Ethiopia.

04 Dec 2013 description

Abnormal dryness has settled in across eastern Southern Africa due to a poor rainfall distribution during November.

1) While some local areas observed some moisture recovery along the Jubba River basin in southern Somalia during mid-November, the absence of precipitation in October has led to significant moisture deficits across many parts of southern Somalia and eastern Kenya. This dryness is likely to negatively impact the development of crops, and pastoral conditions with little opportunity for recovery before the end of the rains season.

27 Nov 2013 description

Despite a slight increase in rainfall across many anomalously dry parts of eastern Kenya in November, seasonal moisture deficits are expected to negatively impact the region.

20 Nov 2013 description

Drier conditions expected during the next week across East Africa, following anomalously heavy rainfall in mid-November.

15 Nov 2013 description

Heavy rainfall and localized flooding likely in Somalia and eastern Ethiopia

  1. Torrential rains from 1 the passage of a tropical cyclone across northern Somalia, as well as a broad area of low pressure over Somalia during the last week, is likely to result in localized flooding, damages to infrastructure, livestock losses, displacement of populations, and downstream river inundation across parts Somalia and eastern Ethiopia. A continuation of locally heavy rainfall is expected across the region during the next week.

06 Nov 2013 description
  • The passage of a weak tropical disturbance is expected to produce heavy amounts of rainfall over northern Somalia.
  • Poor October rainfall across parts of central and eastern Kenya, as well as, southern Somalia lead to strengthening moisture deficits in the region.

1) The development of a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Indian Ocean is expected to move west and bring significantly heavy amounts of rainfall across the Gulf of Aden and Somalia.

24 Oct 2012 description

1) With seasonal rains ending and as vegetation dries out, locust swarms have formed in Chad and are expected to form shortly in Niger and Mali. Swarms are then expected to migrate towards the north as well as potentially into cropping areas in western/central Mali.

03 Oct 2012 description

1) Both anomalous seasonal rainfall and the northward position of the Inter-Tropical front during the past several months have favored breeding conditions for desert locusts over southeast Mauritania-western Mali, central Niger-eastern Mali, Chad, and east-central Sudan. With seasonal rains ending and as vegetation dries out, locusts are expected to concentrate and migrate towards the north as well as potentially into cropping areas in Mali and Niger.

03 Feb 2012 description

Interpreting early March-May seasonal forecasts for the Eastern Horn of Africa

Background

  • The March to May season is the major rainfall period for pastoral and agricultural areas of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and most of Somalia, accounting for 50‐60 percent of annual rainfall in many parts of the sub‐region (Figure 1). These rains are also critical for the secondary Belg season in Ethiopia.