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28 Dec 2005 description


Weekly Introduction
Update of Seasonal Outlooks at Four-Months Lead: April – June 2006

Northern Horn of Africa

Climatology is expected across most of the region, except locally over northwestern and southwestern Sudan, where there is a slight tilt in the odds favoring below normal rainfall. There is a slight tilt in the odds favoring above normal rainfall locally over eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and portions of Djibouti. Climatology is expected elsewhere.

Gulf of Guinea

14 Dec 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:
Update of El Niño:

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are likely during the next 6-9 months.

23 Nov 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Update of Seasonal Outlooks at One Month Lead:

December 2005 – February 2006 Forecasts for Southern Africa:

09 Nov 2005 description


Weekly Introduction:

Final Update of the African Intertropical Convergence Zone:

02 Nov 2005 description


Weekly Introduction
Tropical Cyclone Climatology:

As we enter the tropical cyclone season for the South Indian Ocean, it is appropriate that we present the historical climatology for the number of cyclones in the area. The average number of cyclones per month is presented in the accompanying figure and we see that November represents the general start of the season with the peak in January-February. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the minimum number of tropical cyclones over the historical period of 1981- 2003 is 21 and the maximum number is 38.