Appeals & Response Plans
- Tropical Cyclone Sagar - May 2018
- Ethiopia: Floods and Landslides - Apr 2018
- Ethiopia: Floods - Aug 2017
- Ethiopia: Measles Outbreak - May 2017
- East Africa: Armyworm Infestation - Mar 2017
- Ethiopia: Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD) Outbreak - May 2016
- Ethiopia: Floods - Apr 2016
- Ethiopia: Floods - Oct 2015
- Ethiopia: Drought - 2015-2018
- Ethiopia: Floods - Oct 2014
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- Ethiopia – Eritrean Refugee Influx (DG ECHO, UNHCR, NRC) (ECHO Daily Flash of 26 September 2018)
- Ethiopia: Renewed influx of Eritrean refugees, 12th September to 13th October 2018
While the 2015-2016 El Niño weather event is now over, humanitarian needs continue to grow, and are not expected to peak until early 2017 as food security continues to deteriorate in many regions. WFP, working closely with partners on the ground, is rapidly scaling up life-saving operations for communities reeling from the catastrophic effects of El Niño.
PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR MARCH 2017
Abnormal dryness within East Africa and elevated river levels along the Niger River in Nigeria
Africa Weather Hazards
A prolonged period of heavy rainfall has triggered flooding and inundation along the Niger River in Nigeria and Niger. As the river slowly drains, stream flow should remain high through early September.
Low and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall across parts of central Senegal have led to strengthening moisture deficits.
Almost four million refugees and asylum seekers have fled from one conflict zone to another Oxfam said today ahead of two summits being held in New York next week (19, 20 September) aimed at addressing the refugee crisis.
↗ Ample supplies and improved production prospects kept cereal prices generally under downward pressure. Maize and rice quotations fell the most, while high quality wheat prices firmed on strong demand.
↗ In Africa, food prices in South Sudan declined in August although they remained high, while in Nigeria the weak currency continued to underpin prices. In Southern Africa, decreasing maize quotations in South Africa eased prices in importing countries.
Flooding risks remain in East and West Africa, while rainfall deficits increase in Ethiopia and Uganda
About Weather Hazards
The Global Weather Hazards report anticipates severe weather or climate events in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Central Asia. This product provides maps with current weather and climate information; short and medium range weather forecasts (up to one week); and the potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. It does not reflect long range forecasts or food security conditions.
Africa Weather Hazards
- Persistent, above average rainfall since July has led to excessively rainfall surpluses and floods that have damaged infrastructure, displaced populations, and caused fatalities in parts of Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.
- Below-average seasonal rainfall and persistent moisture deficits in the region have negatively impacted developing crops across parts of eastern Oromia and SNNPR in Ethiopia.
- There is a potential for increased number of locusts migrating from the Arabian Peninsula which may negatively impact cropping …
In West Africa, market availability was good in July with supplies from above-average 2015/16 regional harvests, and international rice and wheat imports. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin and in parts of Central and Northern Mali. The recent depreciation of the Naira has led to price increases across Nigeria and reduced purchasing power for livestock in the Sahel (Page 3).
Heavy rains expected to further increase risk of flooding in West and East Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
The persistence of above-average rainfall continues to increase both short-term and long-term rainfall surpluses and trigger flooding throughout many areas in Sudan, South Sudan and western Ethiopia. Above-average rainfall is forecast to continue over the region, further worsening the potential for flooding over many downstream areas of eastern Sudan during the next week.
PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR FEBRUARY 2017
IN FOCUS & FOOD INSECURITY HOTSPOTS
Drought has left 23 million requiring food assistance in Southern Africa.
An outbreak of fighting in South Sudan has caused new displacements and food price increases in the capital Juba. The South Sudan IPC update for April 2016 estimated that 4.8 million people (40 percent of the population) would face severe food insecurity in the May–July 2016 lean season.
The El Niño global climatic event has had a devastating impact on tens of millions of people across the globe in 2015 and 2016. East Africa, Southern Africa, Central America, South East Asia and the Pacific Islands, continue to be at risk of extreme weather events, including below-normal rains and flooding. The humanitarian fallout includes increased food insecurity due to low crop yields and rising prices; higher malnutrition rates; devastated livelihoods; increased susceptibility to illnesses, and forced displacement.
Globally, millions of vulnerable people are experiencing increased hunger and poverty due to droughts, floods, storms and extreme temperature fluctuations as a result of a climatic occurrence: El Niño.
The 2015/2016 occurrence is one of the most severe in a half-century and the strongest El Niño since 1997/1998. The negative consequences of El Niño are foreseen to continue through 2017, particularly in Southern Africa where this event has followed multiple droughts compounding the already fragile situation.
The passage of Tropical Storm EARL expected to partially mitigate dryness over Central America
Africa Weather Hazards
Consistent and aboveaverage rain over the past few weeks has led to moisture surpluses throughout much of Eastern Africa. Torrential rain is forecast to continue over western Sudan and the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, likely to elevate the River Nile and Al Gash River levels further and potentially resulting in flooding over many areas of Sudan during the next week.
The El Niño 2015-16 in the Context of Past El Niños
The 2015/16 El Niño Event
An El Niño event was officially declared in March 2015, gaining in intensity until it reached its peak in December 2015. The event came to an end in May 2016, becoming one the strongest on record, together with the El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
In West Africa, market availability was good in June with supplies from above-average 2015/16 regional harvests, and international rice and wheat imports. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin and in parts of Central and Northern Mali. The recent depreciation of the Naira has led to price increases across Nigeria and reduced purchasing power for livestock in the Sahel (Page 3).
Heavy rains may lead to flooding in East and West Africa, dryness persists in Central America
Consistent and above average rain over the past few weeks has led to moisture surpluses throughout much of Eastern Africa. Torrential rain is forecast to continue over western Sudan and the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, which is likely to raise the River Nile and Al Gash River levels further and potentially result in flooding over many areas of Sudan during the next week.