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18 Jul 2003 description

Data Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation

29 May 2003 description

CCA Guidance for Sahel Rainfall in Aug-Oct 2003 at Four Months Lead

Two weeks ago we focused on the Sahel CCA guidance for June - August. This week we discuss the forecast for the period August-October actually done last month. The prediction for August-October 2003 Sahel rainfall at four months lead (see SahelASO.gif) calls for slightly higher than climatological probabilities for below normal rainfall in the area that encompasses eastern Niger, Chad, and western Sudan.

15 May 2003 description


CCA Guidance for Sahel Rainfall in June - Aug at One Month Lead

01 May 2003 description


CCA Guidance for the Gulf of Guinea Region Rainfall in May-Jul 2003 at One Month Lead

17 Apr 2003 description


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

09 Apr 2003 description


CCA Guidance for the Greater Horn of Africa Rainfall in June-July-August 2003 at One Month Lead

06 Feb 2003 description

The sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean remain, generally, above normal. Several weeks ago we indicated that the upper level winds were not supportive of tropical cyclone activity. However, the pattern has undergone a substantial change and we have entered a period when upper level winds in the area are conducive to cyclone formation over the Indian ocean area.

23 Jan 2003 description

WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT STATEMENT              
             
JANUARY 23, 2003 DISCUSSION:
     
1)   Recent rains in northern Tunisia and extreme areas in northern Algeria has resulted in saturated conditions and some local flooding.  Expect more rain throughout the period which could induce local flooding in some prone areas.