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06 Nov 2013 description
  • The passage of a weak tropical disturbance is expected to produce heavy amounts of rainfall over northern Somalia.
  • Poor October rainfall across parts of central and eastern Kenya, as well as, southern Somalia lead to strengthening moisture deficits in the region.

1) The development of a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Indian Ocean is expected to move west and bring significantly heavy amounts of rainfall across the Gulf of Aden and Somalia.

05 Dec 2012 description

1) Moisture deficits remain following a mid-season dry spell that occurred in early November and recent drier than average conditions. With a shortened recovery period in the next several weeks, this could result in a deterioration of pastoral and agro-pastoral conditions, and possible crop yield reductions by the end of season throughout parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and eastern Tanzania.

28 Nov 2012 description

1) The return of below-average rainfall during the last week has re-strengthened moisture deficits following a mid-season dry spell that occurred in early November. With a shortened recovery period in the next several weeks, this could result in a deterioration of pastoral and agro-pastoral conditions, and possible crop yield reductions by the end of season throughout parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and eastern Tanzania.

26 Sep 2012 description

1) Both anomalous seasonal rainfall and northward position of the Inter-Tropical front has favored breeding conditions for desert locusts over the southern Mauritania-western Mali border, central Niger-eastern Mali, Chad, and east-central Sudan. The continuation of above-average rainfall during September could lead to locust outbreak across many regions.

12 Sep 2012 description

1) Heavy rains have resulted in fatalities and massive destruction in South Darfur, the northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, and Jonglei states of South Sudan. Flooding potential remains as above-average rains are forecast during the next week.

2) Since July, heavy rains causing flooding and inundation along the Niger and Benue Rivers have led to the displacement of thousands of people and many fatalities in eastern Nigeria. Enhanced rainfall forecast could exacerbate the ground conditions.