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17 Sep 2018 description

Will an El Nino take place?

Current forecasts of Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and expert judgement point to a significant likelihood of an El Nino materializing: currently this stands at 50-55% chance of it happening in the northern hemisphere Autumn and 65-70% chance of it developing in the coming Winter.

How long is it likely to last?

Judging from the forecasts for how SST are likely to evolve, this El Nino, should it materialize, is likely to be relatively short and over by mid 2019.

17 Aug 2018 description

Lara Palmisano

Throughout 2017, the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) supported relief operations in 36 countries to ensure delivery of urgent aid to millions of people in desperate need.

CERF’s 2017 Annual Report, launched today, provides a detailed account of how, during the year, CERF and its partners ensured strategic use of almost $420 million in donor contributions to deliver the highest priority aid, where and when it was need the most.

02 Feb 2017 description
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El Nino 2015-2016 - Screenshot of the interactive content as of 02 Feb 2017.
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Disaster associated with El Nino in 1997-1998, 2002-2003 or 2009-2010 - Screenshot of the interactive content as of 02 Feb 2017.

The impact of the 2015‒2016 El Niño weather phenomenon has been one of the most intense and widespread in the past one hundred years. The agriculture, food security and nutritional status of 60 million people around the globe is affected by El Niño-related droughtsfloods and **extreme hot** and **cold weather**.

05 Jan 2017 description
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Screenshot of the interactive content as of 05 Jan 2017.

This website allows you to explore how different scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change could change the geography of food insecurity in developing and least-developed countries. By altering the levels of future global greenhouse gas emissions and/or the levels of adaptation, you can see how vulnerability to food insecurity changes over time, and compare and contrast these different future scenarios with each other and the present day.

02 Sep 2016 description
report World Vision

In the wake of El Niño

We are living in the most unusually warm period in history and this is taking a huge toll on the world’s most vulnerable. 2015 was the hottest year on record and 2016 looks set to be even hotter.
As this year’s El Niño in the Pacific lurches towards becoming a La Nina1 , the run of record temperatures looks set to be broken again. But in some ways, this year is not unique. It has become widely acknowledged among the development community that weather-related disasters are the ‘new normal’.

14 Jul 2016 description

Globally, millions of vulnerable people are experiencing increased hunger and poverty due to droughts, floods, storms and extreme temperature fluctuations as a result of a climatic occurrence: El Niño. This phenomenon is not an individual weather event but a climate pattern which occurs every two to seven years and lasts 9-12 months. The 2015/2016 occurrence is one of the most severe in a half-century and the strongest El Niño since 1997/1998 which killed some 21,000 people and caused damage to infrastructure worth US$ 36 billion.

06 Jul 2016 description

Globally, millions of vulnerable people are experiencing increased hunger and poverty due to droughts, floods, storms and extreme temperature fluctuations as a result of a climatic occurrence: El Niño. This phenomenon is not an individual weather event but a climate pattern which occurs every two to seven years and lasts 9-12 months. The 2015/2016 occurrence is one of the most severe in a half-century and the strongest El Niño since 1997/1998 which killed some 21,000 people and caused damage to infrastructure worth US$ 36 billion.

05 Jul 2016 description

What is El Niño?

El Niño is the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which occurs roughly every two to seven years, lasting from six to 24 months.

21 Jun 2016 description

What is El Niño?

El Niño is the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which occurs roughly every two to seven years, lasting from six to 24 months.

17 Jun 2016 description

June 17, 2016 IASC Early Warning, Early Action and Readiness Report for the period June to November 2016. The Report is biannual, with a 6 month horizon. It is the product of a group of Agency analysts. In most cases these individuals work for their respective Emergency Directors. Analysis of preparedness status is provided by OCHA. The Report complements more frequent interaction between RC/HC and the ERC as the IASC system officials accountable for ensuring interagency early action and readiness. This should take place using the IASC Emergency Response Preparedness approach.

03 Jun 2016 description

The humanitarian impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño remains deeply alarming, now affecting over 60 million people. Central America, East Africa (particularly Ethiopia), the Pacific and Southern Africa remain the most affected regions. The El Niño phenomenon is now in decline, but projections indicate the situation will worsen throughout at least the end of the year, with food insecurity caused primarily by drought not likely to peak before December. Therefore, the humanitarian impacts will last well into 2017 .

25 Apr 2016 description

Background and purpose

The impact of the 2015‒2016 El Niño weather phenomenon has been one of the most intense and widespread in the past one hundred years. The agriculture, food security and nutritional status of 60 million people around the globe is affected by El Niño-related droughts, floods and extreme hot and cold weather. While the El Niño itself has passed its peak and is now declining, its impact is still growing. Harvests in several parts of the world have already failed and are forecast to fail in other areas.

21 Apr 2016 description

Globally, millions of vulnerable people are experiencing increased hunger and poverty due to droughts and floods as a result of a climatic occurrence: El Niño. This phenomenon is not an individual weather event but a climate pattern which occurs every two to seven years and lasts 9-12 months. This particular occurrence is one of the most severe in a half-century and the strongest El Niño since 1997/1998 which killed some 21,000 people and caused damage to infrastructure worth US$ 36 billion.

09 Mar 2016 description

The 2015-2016 El Niño has passed its peak but it remains strong and will continue to influence the global climate. It is expected to weaken in the coming months and fade away during the second quarter of 2016. The World Meteorological Organization states that models indicate a return to an El Niño neutral state during the second quarter of 2016. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions are quite likely through March-April. It is too early to predict if there will then be a swing to La Niña (the opposite of El Niño).

29 Jan 2016 description

60 million PEOPLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY EL NIÑO IN THE FOUR MOST AFFECTED REGIONS

2.8 million PEOPLE REQUIRE HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS

10.2 million PEOPLE IN NEED OF EMERGENCY FOOD IN ETHIOPIA

14 million FOOD INSECURE PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA – EXCLUDING SOUTH AFRICA

El Niño status

29 Jan 2016 description

Jan 2016

Background and purpose

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has as its **Strategic Objective 5** to “Increase the resilience of livelihoods to threats and crises”. In support of its national counterparts, FAO aims to address the current and future needs of vulnerable people affected by the 2015‒2016 El Niño event.

22 Sep 2015 description

Bangladesh: 1.5 million people are affected by flooding, which has displaced around 320,000 people in the areas of Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, and Bandarban. Shelter, WASH and food security are key priorities. 15 out 24 rivers are over danger levels as heavy rainfall continues.

Libya: An estimated 2,244 people have died this year as a result of conflict, and nearly one-third of the country’s population is affected. Humanitarian access remains severely restricted.