Ethiopia

Rainfall continues in the Sahel, no weather hazards reported over Africa

Africa Overview

Rainfall continues over the Sahel

Gulf of Guinea is abnormally dry, while areas of Kenya remain at risk for flooding

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Poorly-distributed rain during the March-May rainfall season has led to large moisture deficits in southeastern Tigray and eastern Amhara regions of Ethiopia.

2. A slow onset to seasonal rainfall and consistent limited rain over the past several weeks has maintained moisture deficits and caused abnormal dryness over the Gulf of Guinea countries.

Key messages

• International prices of wheat and maize were generally firmer in January, supported by weather-related concerns and a weaker US dollar. Export price quotations of rice also strengthened mainly buoyed by renewed Asian demand.

• In East Africa, in the Sudan, prices of the main staples: sorghum, millet and wheat, rose sharply for the third consecutive month in January and reached record highs, underpinned by the removal of wheat subsidies and the strong depreciation of the Sudanese Pound.

Key messages

• International prices of wheat increased in September mostly because of weather-related concerns, while maize quotations fell further on crop harvest pressure. International rice prices remained generally firm, supported by seasonally tight availabilities of fragrant rice and strong demand for higher quality Indica supplies.

Moisture deficits in the Greater Horn of Africa could indicate delayed onset of seasonal rains

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Poorly-distributed rainfall during August and early September has delayed crop development over parts of southern Burkina Faso and northern Ghana. Below-average rain is forecast next week, which further reduces the chance for recovery.

Despite average rainfall over East Africa, risk of flooding remains high in Sudan and Ethiopia

Africa Weather Hazards

1. and below-normal rainfall in August and early September has produced moderate to large moisture deficits in parts of southern Burkina Faso and northern Ghana.

2. Below-average rain over the past three months has resulted in poor ground conditions in the Western Cape province of South Africa.

Below-average rain recorded in West Africa, while above-average rain persists over Eastern Africa

1. Inconsistent and below-normal rainfall since mid-August has increased moisture deficits and led to abnormal dryness for parts of southern Burkina Faso and northern Ghana.

2. Recent heavy rains have caused the Niger and Benue Rivers in Nigeria to flood. Reports indicate that 100,000 people were displaced by flooding and many crops have been destroyed. Continued rain will keep rivers high.

Dryness remains in parts of East Africa, while early season rains continue over lower Sahel

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Below-average rainfall since late February has resulted in moisture deficits throughout many parts of southern South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and northern Tanzania.

2. Limited rainfall since March has led to developing moisture deficits across parts of Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, and southern Guinea.

Central Asia Weather Hazards

Despite increased rainfall in northern Ethiopia, Somalia and south-eastern Ethiopia remain dry

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Below-average rainfall since late February has resulted in moisture deficits throughout many parts of southern South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and northern Tanzania.
   
2. Limited rainfall since March has led to developing moisture deficits across parts of Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, and southern Guinea.

Central Asia Weather Hazards

Drought-like conditions continue across Kenya, Somalia, and southern Ethiopia

1. Below-average rainfall since late February has resulted in moisture deficits throughout many parts of southern South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia,
   Somalia, and northern Tanzania.

2. Several consecutive weeks of below-average rainfall has led to early season moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions in parts of Ghana.

Despite recent seasonal rainfall, moisture deficits remain in central Kenya and Somalia

1. Following rains during early March, significant long-term moisture deficits remain throughout central and eastern Madagascar.

2. Inconsistent rainfall since late December has led to continued dryness across many parts of western Angola.

Dryness continues to worsen over the Horn of Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Below-average rainfall since late February have resulted in moderate to locally strong moisture deficits, which have already negatively impacted agricultural and pastoral activities in many parts of southern South Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and northern Tanzania.

Africa Weather Hazards

Tropical cyclone Matthew expected to impact Hispaniola

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Prolonged heavy rainfall during the season throughout the Niger River basin has triggered flooding and inundation along the Niger River in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Seasonal Inundation is also expected to be greater than it has been for many years across the inner Niger delta in Mali.

2. Low and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall across parts of central Senegal and The Gambia have led to strengthening moisture deficits.

Increased rainfall providing some relief to early season dryness in Guatemala and the Greater Horn

1. Poorly-distributed rainfall since October 2015 has resulted in large moisture deficits, leading to wilted crops, livestock deaths, and reduced water availability over many areas of Southern Africa. With the season coming to an end, recovery is unlikely.

Dry conditions developing in the Gulf of Guinea region and northern Hispaniola

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Poorly-distributed rainfall since O ctober 2015 has resulted in large moisture deficits, leading to wilted crops, livestock deaths, and reduced water availability over many areas of Southern Africa. With the season coming to an end, recovery is unlikely.

Drought in bimodal West Africa, heavy rains to maintain flooding risks in Central America

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Persistently belowaverage rainfall over several bimodal areas of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria since August has led to an increase in moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions, resulting in drought.

Flooding risks continue in Central America; heavy snow forecast for Central Asia

Africa Overview

Second season rains have arrived for most bimodal areas of West Africa

Heavy rainfall may trigger flooding in Central America and West Africa

Summary

Increased rainfall across Hispaniola due to tropical storm activity

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Widespread, heavy rainfall over the past few weeks has caused flooding over local areas of West Africa. Heavy rain is forecast to continue during the next week, elevating flooding risks over many already saturated areas.

2. Significant rainfall is forecast to continue over eastern Chad and western Sudan, heightening risks for localized flooding and potential waterborne disease outbreaks.