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EVENT: Government fighters launched a counter-offensive on June 2 against hardline Islamist militant groups, Hisbul Islam and al-Shabaab.
SIGNIFICANCE: The government has barely survived a concerted assault on Mogadishu, which threatens to derail the Djibouti peace process.
ANALYSIS: Since it moved to Mogadishu in February, the expanded Transitional Federal Government (TFG-Djibouti) has made only limited progress in increasing coherence among the unwieldy coalition of which it is formed.
SUBJECT: The effect of a growing food emergency on security in the Horn of Africa.
SIGNIFICANCE: Poverty, drought and food insecurity are well known in the Horn of Africa. This latest emergency occurs at a time of global increases in the price of food and fuel and when regional conflicts threaten to destabilise the region.
ANALYSIS: The sharp increase in food and energy prices globally has hurt the poorest and most food insecure regions of the world particularly hard.
SUBJECT: The political and economic outlook for the Horn of Africa in 2008.
SIGNIFICANCE: The region in 2008 will continue to be one of the world's most active sites for emergency relief operations, international peace-keeping, and diplomatic efforts to broker and maintain peace.